Follow @james_tanner123 The Washington Capitals begin their quest for sixteen victories tonight, in Washington, against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
This is the worst possible match-up the Capitals could have gotten - the Leafs are younger, faster, and have absolutely nothing to lose - but, then again, when you're the best team in the league, there are no bad match-ups.
The Capitals will look to beat the Leafs with their depth.
Specifically, their depth on defense, because, believe it or not, the Leafs have got a pretty equal group of forwards.
Line 1: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie vs Hyman, Matthews and Nylander
Edge goes to Washington, (mostly because Oshie >>>> Hyman) but Matthews scored more 5v5 goals than Ovechkin and is a better player away from the puck than anyone Washington has on their top line. It's very close.
Line 2: Johanson, Kuznetsov, Williams vs Van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Marner
Bozak (51%) and Kuznetsov (52%) were both positive possession players , and Kuznetsov scored four more points and one more goal while playing in four more games. Statistically, they're close to the same player this season.
Edge: Toronto
JVR and Marner are vastly superior to Kuznetsov's wingers though, and it isn't even close.
Line 3: Connelly, Eller, Burakovsky vs Komorov, Kadri, Brown
This has been a great third line for the Capitals, but Kadri is a likely Selke nom with 30 goals, Brown is a machine and Komarov brings you elite defense.
Edge: Toronto
Line 4: Winnick, Beagle, Wilson vs Martin, Boyle, Kapanen
Kapanen is one of the fastest players in the NHL. Boyle has been a revelation, and Martin is the worst of these six. I really like Daniel Winnick, but I think I like Boyle more.
Edge to the Leafs because the 8th seed has no business having a player like Kapanen on the fourth line.
After reading that, you have to think that Toronto has a pretty good chance to win..........but experts are putting that at 30%.........and why?
D-Fence !!
Alzner - Carlson Orlov - Niskanen Orpik - Shattenkirk
extra: Schmidt
vs
Rielly - Hunwick Gardiner - Polak Marincin - Carrick
Zatisev (injured)
No team has a better defensive lineup than the Capitals. Now, I fully admit Alzner and Orpik aren't much better than, oh, say Hunwick and Polak......but the Capitals have the best top four in the NHL.....maybe in salary cap history.
Any of Carlson, Niskanen, Orlov and Shattenkirk would be perfectly satisfactory as the best defenseman on a team. Any two of them would make one of the NHL's best pairings.
The Capitals are absolutely spoiled at defense and it allows them to punish teams and it makes Braden Holtby - even in a f__ fedora - as good as Carey Price.
The Leafs best defenseman - unquestionably Jake Gardiner - might push Orlov out of Washington's top four if they acquired him, but that's it. Nate Schmidt, who'll likely only play in case of injury, would be Toronto's fourth best defenseman (worse than Zaitsev, better than Carrick).
So even though Toronto is surprisingly deep at forward for an eight seed (one could argue they have the best top-to-bottom lineup of forwards in the NHL) the Defense is what gives Washington a 70% chance of victory.
In the 105 point range are the Ducks, Rangers, Oilers, Wild, Blue Jackets and Canadiens. The Capitals would do well to remember that when preparing for this series.
stats: corsica.hockey