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The Toronto Maple Leafs have 18 games before the start of the playoffs and things become consequential. Over that five-week span, the club only has home ice advantage and their overall health to be concerned about, but during that time head coach Sheldon Keefe will have to decide who will be their go-to guy to start the series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Based on usage and health, Ilya Samsonov would appear to have the inside track. The 26-year-old is 23-8-2 in his 32 starts, with a 2.41 GAA and .915 save %. Matt Murray has been solid (11-6-2, 2.80 GAA, .908 save %) but has had two long stints beginning in October and January on the injured list.
Unlike the last six seasons under Mike Babcock and Sheldon Keefe, where Toronto has stuck with one goalie throughout each series, there is a possibility that the Leafs could opt to use both netminders in a seven-game series, potentially using Samsonov at home and Murray on the road, but if both goalies are 100% healthy next month, Keefe may choose to go with the two-time Stanley Cup winner based on post-season performance (2.18 GAA, .921 save %) and experience, with Samsonov on standby.
The future in goal is mostly dependent on how the Leafs do in the playoffs and who performs better. Samsonov is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights and with the possibility of him winning 30+ games, it is likely that he will get over $4 million this summer on a one-year deal leading into unrestricted free agency in 2024 or more on a long-term deal if GM Kyle Dubas tries to lock him up.
Murray has another year left at $4.687 million, but if the Leafs choose to buy him out this summer, they would save $4 million in cap space in 2024 that could be used to re-sign free agents like Ryan O’Reilly, Michael Bunting, and/or Noel Acciari. If Murray suffers another injury, he could be placed on LTIR for some or all of next season.
Outstanding save from Joseph Woll pic.twitter.com/jMJkOLdob1
— Kevin Papetti (@KPapetti) March 9, 2023
Another factor in the goaltending mix next season is Joseph Woll. After recovering from off-season shoulder surgery and a knee injury, the 24-year-old has been fantastic with the AHL Toronto Marlies (15-1-0, 2.24 GAA, .933 save %) and he has put up impressive numbers in a three-game NHL stint (2-1-0, 2.04 GAA, .938 save %) with the Leafs.
Woll is in the first of a three-year deal making less than the league minimum ($766,667), but next season his deal becomes one-way and he will not be waiver exempt. This means that Toronto would have to carry three goaltenders since they would not risk losing Woll on waivers if they keep Murray or that the youngster would back up Samsonov.
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