Somewhere in my files is a story I wrote for USA TODAY when the salary cap was introduced in 2005. Several general managers predicted the league would change because teams would lose players every summer to free agency and then replace them with different free agents.
It was predicted there would be an impressive collection of star UFAs available every summer.
We know today that didn't happen. Not always, but most of the time NHL teams retain players who can become UFAs. The pool of available UFAs every summer is smaller, and not as star-filled, as GMs thought it would be.
But this summer there are some potential UFAs who could hurt their team significantly if they don't re-sign. Here is a capsule look at how those situations might play out: Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames
It seems like a major managerial miscalculation to let this situation get to this point. Gaudreau is coming off the best season of his career. He boasts spectacular statistics. Gaudreau led the NHL with 90 even-strength points. He also led the league in plus-minus (+64).
If he walks away, the Flames could be facing a major retooling. Matthew Tkachuk is a restricted free agent this season and his UFA status is only a year away. Is he going to want to re-up long-term if the team's leading scorer is leaving?
Why he would stay: He says he likes it in Calgary, and has played impressively well for Darryl Sutter.
Why he would leave: Calgary Flames fans were hard on him before this season. It hasn't always gone well for him in Calgary.
Forecast: He enters the marketplace and signs with an East Coast team.
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins are committed to trying to win another Stanley Cup with this aging group. But those plans would be undermined if Malkin and Kris Letang leave through free agency.
Both players are 35, but are vital contributors. Neither player is looking to give a heavy hometown discount.
The Penguins have enough money to sign them, but need to keep enough salary cap space to make other improvements. Signing won't help unless they change-up the defense and add some support players.
This situation requires a slick managerial touch. Does GM Ron Hextall have that touch?
Why he would stay: Malkin has played for the Penguins his entire career and that seems important to him.
Why he would leave: Because he wants to be paid fairly. He doesn't want to squeeze every last dollar out the Penguins. But Malkin was displeased, maybe insulted, by their last offer.
Forecast: Malkin has been making more than Crosby. He will give a slight discount and this will get done.
Kris Letang, Penguins
The Penguins are in a difficult position. Pittsburgh's defense needs renovations with Letang. Imagine the work that would be required if Letang departs.
He holds the hammer in this negotiation.
Why he would stay: He likes playing with this group, and has known a considerable amount of success in Pittsburgh. He is comfortable playing for Mike Sullivan.
Why he would leave: At $7.25 million, Letang has been underpaid as an impact defenseman. He posted 68 points this season, meaning he's still playing at a high level. He wants to hit a grand slam in what could be his final contract.
Forecast: He leaves Pittsburgh and signs a three-year deal with a contender for more than he has been earning in Pittsburgh
Filip Forsberg, Nashville Predators
Forsberg is a proven goal scorer. He nets 25 to 35 goals every season. It's a given. This season he netted 42 goals.
The Predators know his value. He knows his value. But the Predators have some bad karma with long-term contracts. They have given out some long-term deals that haven't paid off.
But now GM David Poile has allowed this to go on too long, and Forsberg has the leverage.
Why he would stay: He loves playing in Nashville and fans adore him. As a general rule, players enjoy playing in Nashville. The social media attention doesn't have the same bite you see in cities like Toronto or New York.
Why he would leave: Pride. It seems like Forsberg wants to be paid as much as Roman Josi at $9.05 million per season. The Predators seem to want Josi to remain as the highest-paid player on the team.
Forecast Both sides give a little and he stays in Nashville. Everyone knows what it will take to get it done.
Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins This situation is different because Bergeron has already indicated that he will play for the Bruins or he will retire. He won't test the UFA market.
The timing is not good. The Bruins aren't looking to rebuild, even though that is going to come at some point over the next few seasons. But they also beat-up going into next season. Too many top players, including Bergeron, will miss the start of the season.
Why he would stay: Bergeron doesn't seem ready to retire. He's still playing well. Even with his recent surgery, he will be back in time to play most of the season.
Why he would leave: He will be 37 in July. Some players retire just to spend more time with their family. Bergeron seems like that kind of guy.
Forecast: Eventually, he re-signs with the Bruins.
John Klingberg, Dallas Stars
Why he would stay: He also says he wants to stay in Dallas. He likes his teammates. Why he would leave: There's a shortage of puck-moving D Men. It's supply and demand. He will get paid more if he auctions his talent in the open market.
Forecast: This already seems settled. He's going to market.