The Winnipeg Jets are coming off 3 days of rest and relaxation in Sin City to face the Golden Knights tonight. This is the first meeting between the two clubs this year. Vegas has just returned from a 6 game road trip where they managed 5 points of 12 going 2-3-1. They host the Jets before a quick two-game trip to Edmonton and Vancouver.
The Jets have been lounging around Vegas waiting, and perhaps wondering a bit, after a strong showing versus Dallas on Monday night. What would the Jets be wondering about? Perhaps how they have found themselves sitting second in the Central Division with a few games in hand on some teams while not playing their best, or at least their best style, of hockey to win games.
The Jets, as you have seen in this space before, are defying some predictive analytics with some excellent shooting luck/skill and outstanding goaltending. They are not PDO darlings yet but pretty soon something has to give a bit and the challenge for this team is to shore up the weak areas before a bit of luck goes the other way, i.e. against them.
Simply put the team, particularly the coach Paul Maurice, has to know there is room to improve in terms of the rate of action they generate in the offensive end. In fact Paul Maurice mentioned analytics in his breif media appearance the other day citing xG and rate of shots against. It's a welcome relief to see that he may be on the road to actually having some statistical evidence and uses it to support on-ice challenges.
One issue that's been talked about here and in other places is the Jets shot allowed locations. The very talented Micah Blake McCurdy has some cool information on his site Hockey Viz.
Take a look at some season data since Paul Maurice arrived in Winnipeg.
2017-18
2016-17
2015-16
2014-15
The biggest difference is that through the circles and the outside and upper areas of the 'home plate' formation the Jets seem to be allowing less than league average shots against them. Furthermore the high slot up between the top of the circles and above them along with the sides to the net seem to have them giving up more shots this year.
Without going back and looking at video for each goal this year and shots too there could be reason to support the idea that the Jets are okay with allowing shots from certain areas. They do track events, positioning and more around their goalies and perhaps they know something about Hellebuyck and perhaps Mason that gives them some confidence in letting them see shots from certain areas.
As for tonight it's anyone's guess really as to what the estimated 3000 plus Jets fans in Vegas will see on the ice. Three days off is plenty to lose focus and take the proverbial foot off the gas and if there have been a few long nights in Vegas for the team I'd expect nothing less than a tentative first period. The Golden Knights have just come home too though and that seems to be an equal concern as life catches up fast once you come off the road.
Hellebuyck is expected to start with Mason playing tomorrow night in Arizona (expected) and it seems there will be no adjustment to the lines that played well in Dallas.
For many fans though, there's the trust issue with the Jets. Are people ready to believe they are what their record says? That's the concern right now and the longer the Jets can keep this level of success up the better the chance people start believing in them. Furthermore the sooner they can increase there pace of play towards the other net and apply some of that discipline to the PP and PK units the more confidence even the most skeptical will have in them, even if they don't believe it's actually happening.