I am an eternal optimist, and I know this pisses a lot of you off...
I took a long look at the last 6 NHL seasons and the 16 teams who were in the playoffs on March 1 versus those made the playoffs at seasons end to see if I could really be optimistic for teams currently on the outside looking in..I also wanted to once again speak out against this ridiculous current points system which awards points to teams who lose. The three-point game is beyond dumb needs to be fixed. Unfortunately, the NHL owners would rather have a fake point system that gives the illusion of many markets still being in a playoff race than give teams an actual chance to make up ground by awarding three points for a regulation win.
Anyway...let's look for optimism in history...(always a scary proposition...) Can a team not in the playoffs on March 1 still make it?
March 1 since 2013-14 (6 previous seasons)...
*On average teams have played 65 games with 17 Games left (34 possible points to be had)
*There have been 31 teams (avg: 5 per year) who were sitting 4 points or less outside of playoffs spot.
* Only 5 of those 31 teams within 4 points have made the playoffs.
* Only once over the last 6 seasons has a team who was over 4 points out made the playoffs (Ottawa 7 points out in 14-15)
*Removing Ottawa as the outlier, the average amount of points out the teams who made the playoffs is 2.2 points back.
Here is a look at the teams who have made it over the last 6 years... 2018-19 Colorado and Pittsburgh each were 1 points out on March 1 but made the playoffs 2017-18 Colorado was 4 points out on March 1 but made the playoffs 2016-17 The Final 16 were set on March 1 2015-16 Philly was 3 points out on March 1 but made the playoffs 2014-15 Ottawa was 7 points out on March 1 but made the playoffs 2013-14 Columbus was 3 points out on March 1 but made the playoffs
So if your team is out of the playoffs now, how should you be looking at this? You can look at the numbers above and see the glass half empty or you can look at the 2014-15 Ottawa Senators, who were 7 points out and made it.
What did it take for Ottawa to make up that ground? The Sens went 15-3-2 over their final 20 games…
So who is out of the playoffs this season who has a shot?
In the East… Carolina is 3 points out 64GP NY Rangers are 4 points out 66GP Florida is 5 points out 66GP Montreal is 7 points out 68GP
But the West is way more intriguing…
In the West… Vancouver is in the first wild card with 74 points in 66GP Winnipeg and Arizona are tied with 74 points in 68GP Minnesota is 1 point out 66GP Nashville is 2 points out 66GP Chicago is 6 points out with 66GP
So who has the best shots at being the team on the outside looking in?
Our projected standings bases the results of all the remaining games being played on several factors including each team’s recent records against their opponents, and travel, back to backs, current injuries etc. Based on these factor we project Florida and Nashville being the two teams currently NOT in the playoffs who will make it.. (of course this assumes these teams can get their normal goaltending…a BIG issues as of now...)
Tell us who you think makes it?
Tonight's Picks and Updated Final Projected Standings...
Last night's Predictions: 1-3
Season So Far: 29-34 *********************** Tonight Predictions: Points Predicted to Be Gained Tonight... BUF 0 PIT 2 TB 2 MTL 0 FLA 2 BOS 0 NYR 0 WSH 2 PHI 1 CAR 2 OTT 0 NYI 2 NSH 2 DAL 1 CHI 2 EDM 1 LAK 0 TOR 2 SJ 2 MIN 0
New Projected Final Standings
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— Michael Augello (@MikeInBuffalo) August 2, 2017