I am going to look back at previous drafts and re-draft the top ten with the hindsight we have now. This will value their entire body of work over the years not just where they are in the present moment. I'm looking for who would provide the most value over their careers to this point. These players are all ~24 years old and at entering what should be the best parts of their careers. Today is going to focus on the 2012 Entry Draft.
Overall this draft was horrendous. This was the draft hosted by Pittsburgh when they traded Jordan Staal away on his wedding day. It was kind of a fitting moment for what this draft was. That isn't to say there weren't any good players in it. It just lacks the upper echelon players from other drafts. It really lacks forwards.
Also, this is the second consecutive draft where Edmonton's #1 overall selection is not included in the top ten. Today the player taken by Edmonton isn't even close to being an honorable mention.
Here is the original top 10
Nail Yakupov Ryan Murray Alex Galchenyuk Griffin Reinhart Morgain Reilly Hampus Lindholm Matthew Dumba Derrick Pouliot Jacob Trouba Slater Koekkoek
Here is my top ten
1. Filip Forsberg (11)
He barely slipped out of the original top ten, but not this one. He is the most dynamic and offensively gifted forward in this draft and that alone makes him very unique and valuable.
2. Shayne Gostisbehere (120)
Honestly, I have no idea how to rank the cornucopia of defensemen in this draft. Overall the differences between them are fairly negligible. They are all similar in their ability to move the puck and for the most part are all in the same ballpark offensively at even-strength. I wrote this passage even before I picked who was going at #2 overall. No matter who I put here is going to have people with at wtf reaction.
I spent a good chunk of time looking at all the evidence for the following group of defensemen: Hampus Lindholm, Colton Parayko, Morgan Rielly, Jacob Trouba, and Shayne Gostisbehere. They are all strong players. Ultimately when I looked at offensive contributions when combined with ability to drive play and passing data Ghost was the strongest among all three general areas. He's a great skater and I will always lean towards the fleet foot offensively minded defenseman. It was a shock to me that he lands here as I 'm sure it is to you. The tiebreaker was his ability to play on the power play. He is among the ice time leaders in power play ice time and the other guys didn't register here. Some of that has to do with the teams they are on, but if they were as dynamic as Ghost they would find a way to get more time.
3. Morgan Rielly (5)
The hot takes continue in this draft. I'm again leaning towards offensive upside. Guys that can create are worth more than guys who can't. Coaching genius Mike Babcock might be better served creating one loaded power play unit rather than two balanced units. Rielly has lost out on being even more productive because of this split. The Leafs could run out a Nylander, Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Rielly power play next year and it would be great. Will they? Probably not. Anyways this was another surprise to me taking Rielly this high.
4. Colton Parayko (86)
Another quality player here at the fourth overall selection. He's among the best in this group of players at 5v5 offense and his passing and shot contribution data is strong. He gets bonus points for being big and right handed.
5. Hampus Lindholm (6)
Lindholm isn't as offensively gifted as the other three players, but he is the best guy in the draft among defensemen at defending and driving play. His offensive contributions aren't to be scoffed at either. He's a 0.78 points per 60 guy, which isn't high end, but not non-existent. Combine that with the areas he thrives in and you have a really complete player.
6. Matt Murray (83)
Goalies are always the wild card when trying to do exercises like this. On one hand Matt Murray's start to his career was literally perfect. It was Ken Dryden-esque. On the other hand he stunk last year. I still think he's the best goalie of this class and has shown when the stakes are at their highest so has his level of play. Not a fan of taking goalies this high in the draft, but I'm betting on Murray to be a top ten guy I suppose.
7. Jacob Trouba (9)
Another mobile offensively minded defenseman who helps improve those around him. His skating compliments his offensive skills. No shame in going seventh overall with this group of players.
8. Jaccob Slavin (120)
Let's keep rolling with the defensemen. Slavin gets lost playing in Carolina, but he brings great value to the Hurricanes. At this point I think he's better than the next forward on the board so I'm taking him.
9. Alex Galchenyuk (3)
I'm taking a chance with this one. His passing data is immaculate. His usage in Montreal was mangled. It is hard for me to look at how this player was handled by his coaches and not be tempted to see what he can do in another organization. 1.81 5v5 points per 60 + passing data + terrible usage = taking a chance 10. Andrei Vasilevskiy (19)
Connor Hellebuyck could be here all the same. Overall their numbers are really close to one another. They both had amazing 2017-18 seasons. I went with Vasilevskiy because his two seasons as a starter have had less variance which showed at least some sort of consistency.
Honorable mentions: Connor Hellebuyck, Tomas Hertl, Matt Dumba, Olli Maata, Frederik Andersen (yes he was drafted again), Teuvo Teravainen, Radek Faksa
Weird draft, but if you needed a good defenseman this was the one for you. Unless you had the #8 overall selection...
Thanks for reading!