Remember this hilarious episode of “All Roads Lead Home… talking about how the Senators were doing “better than pundits predicted…?
Let’s take a look at the league standings:
As you can see, Ottawa already sits in 31st with just 43 points in 52 games. And with the way things are right now, it would take a miracle for them to finish any higher than 27th, as the Panthers are seven points up but have two games in hand. Perhaps the Ducks continue their descent, but even they are eight points up with one more game played. None of the Red Wings, Blackhawks, Devils, and Kings are very good, and a six-point difference (or less) is more doable, especially since they have one game in hand on Detroit and Chicago. At the same time, Ottawa needs to be much better than all of these teams if they really want to ensure they don’t finish 31st.
It’s not as if they are clustered with a bunch of teams---they already have some serious ground to gain. And moving forward, it’s fair to expect them to be just as bad, and probably even worse. For starters, according to Micah Blake McCurdy’s model, they are projected for the lowest point total in the league, almost five fewer than the next worst team:
Point projections over the past fortnight. pic.twitter.com/mYkqSze5x9
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) February 4, 2019
They also have the 3rd worst goal differential in the league at -35, and by far the worst corsi at 44.36%, so nothing about their performance suggests that they are due for positive regression. Then there’s the most obvious point that is unavoidable: the fact that some of their best players might not be on the team in a couple of weeks. Any of Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and potentially others could be on the move, which would make the Senators look like an AHL team. Other teams will sell off pieces too, but not their three best forwards. Stone is able to single-handedly make them competent when he is on the ice, so losing him would be the biggest blow.
I would be shocked if the team right now is the same after the trade deadline, and even if it is, there’s no reason to believe that they are going to be better for the final 30 games of the season. There are plenty of games left, but when you start talking about eight or nine point gaps, that’s essentially insurmountable for a bottom-feeder like the Senators. With how bad they have played this season and the expected departure of some of their best players, I just don’t see how Ottawa finishes anywhere but 31st. And if it’s not 31st, then perhaps the best case scenario is 29th.
With every loss, the Colorado Avalanche get closer to being guaranteed a top-4 pick in the 2019 draft, and that is the biggest sting from this season---the fact that all of this pain is for nothing. It’s hard to imagine a worse season than last year, although 2018-19 is giving it a run for its money depending on how the big three UFAs are dealt with. As long as Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko don’t end up on Colorado, then it might be a bit easier to stomach.