With Game 1 of every NHL playoff series now completed, we’ve got a glimpse of what each pairing of opponents can do against each other. If you’re a fan of the Rangers, Bruins, Capitals, Penguins, Predators, Blues, Ducks and Sharks – all of who were victorious in their first post-season game this spring – the recent statistics on who will move on to the second round should make you feel good about your team’s chances.
But that doesn’t mean the Canadiens, Senators, Maple Leafs, Blue Jackets, Blackhawks, Wild, Flames and Oilers are virtual locks to be eliminated in the next 10 days or so. Indeed, considering how close just about every Game 1 was, there’s a solid chance at least one franchise that lost a Game 1 overcomes their early deficit and knocks off the team that beat them the first time out.
If you gauge the chances of Game 1 losers this year based solely on the way the 2016 post-season’s first round played out, they’re as bad as they can be: every team that won Game 1 last year eventually eliminated their opponent, and it didn’t matter whether they won it at home (as the Lightning, Caps, Pens, Stars, and Blues did) or on the road (as the Isles, Preds and Sharks did). St. Louis and Nashville both needed seven games to make it to Round 2, but organizational beancounters and hockey operations departments don’t much care how long it took them to win, only that they did.
However, the second round was a different story when it came to first-game performances serving as a harbinger of what was to come. The Islanders and Capitals both won Game 1, but the Lightning and Penguins shook off their respective defeats and came back to win – in Tampa’s case, by beating the Isles in the next four games; and in Pittsburgh’s case, by winning four of the next five games. Likewise, the Blues lost to the Stars in Game 1 of their second-round matchup, but won four of the next six to qualify for the Western Conference Final; and in the anomaly of the round, the Sharks won Game 1 against the Predators, then needed seven games to eliminate Nashville.
In the 2015 playoffs, losers of Game 1 in the first round fared slightly better than they did a year later: two teams – the Bolts and Capitals – fell behind by a game to start their post-season, only to rebound and beat the Red Wings and Islanders. It took Tampa Bay and Washington seven games to overcome that early series deficit, but they stepped up and turned things around. Yet in the second round, three of four clubs that won Game 1 – the Ducks, Hawks and Lightning – moved on to the conference finals, and only the Caps were unable to follow up their Game 1 win with a series victory.
Game 1 losers in the first round had their best showing in recent years in the 2014 post-season: half of the teams that dropped their first game – the Bruins, Wild, Hawks and Kings – enjoyed a reversal of fortune and qualified for the second round. But in the second round of that tournament, every team that won Game 1 was victorious in the series.
It’s clear, then, that, more often than not – at least, of late – a Game 1 win is a solid indication a series win is likely to come a team’s way. But this year’s group of Game 1 losers shouldn’t be sobbing into their fans’ rally towels just yet. Because six of the eight first games in the current Cup tournament were decided by a single goal, and the other two were decided by two goals. That wasn’t the case in 2016 or 2014, when two Games 1 in each of those post-seasons were decided by three or more goals; nor was it the case in 2015, when one of the Game 1 showdowns was decided by three goals.
While it’s true the NHL’s loser point has done much to mask the disparities between the league’s top-end squads, it’s also true the 16 playoff teams are in many regards more similar than ever – in their coaching styles, in the types of players they employ, in the depth they require to survive the war of attrition the post-season almost always turns out to be. And so we shouldn’t be surprised to see that a team like the Maple Leafs – who many people believed were vastly outmatched by the league-best Capitals – gave Washington a terrific run for their money in Game 1 before falling in overtime.
Similarly, while the Atlantic Division-champion Canadiens lost to the Rangers, their 2-0 defeat hardly qualified as a statement this would be a short series in the Blueshirts’ favor. Neither the Bruins and Senators looked worlds better than one another in their tilt, and although the Blue Jackets trailed the Penguins 3-0 after the second period of Wednesday’s Game 1, Columbus held them off the scoresheet in the first and third frames and scored the only goal the rest of the game. The Blues needed overtime to decide their game with the Wild, and the Sharks needed a fourth period to beat the Oilers. And on Thursday, the Preds barely squeaked by the Hawks and the Ducks edged the Flames by a single goal.
All of that tells me the difference between winning and losing is as small as it’s ever been in the modern-day NHL. The history in recent years still suggests a Game 1 winner is more likely to move on, but all it will take is a bad bounce here or there, a stumble-through-a-period-or-two, and the teams that skated off on the wrong side of the ledger in Game 1 this year could easily find themselves in the winner’s circle at the conclusion of their series.