The Edmonton Oilers have secured home ice for one round of the Playoffs and tonight they have the opportunity to do something that seemed impossible in October: Win the Pacific Division.
I stated in the fall that the season would be a failure if the Oilers didn’t make the playoffs. For more than half the season, the Oilers held down a position in the top 10 of the NHL in various advanced metrics. That’s not typically exciting to the lay-fan, but teams who are successful in the post-season come from those ranks. Edmonton has since slipped just outside the top 10 in a few categories and a little further in raw shot attempt percentage. In any event, for a large portion of the year the Oilers were good. Damned good. Tonight it can potentially all fall into place for one of the most unlikely Division titles in history.
Yes, a lot of what makes Edmonton good is Connor McDavid. There’s no question about it. McDavid leads from the front. He’s the best player in the NHL and the Oilers don’t have to apologize to anybody for that. And make no mistake, he’s the best player in the NHL. It isn’t Crosby anymore (who is still fantastic). This kid is the game-genie of the National Hockey League. He’s too fast, too skilled, too smart, and too driven.
Regardless of how they did it, to potentially win a Division title is something that the Oilers haven’t done since 1986-1987. I was three years old, almost four. It has been 30 years since Edmonton has accomplished something like this. An entire generation of Oiler fans have legitimately never seen this in their lives. It’s likely that the vast majority of people reading this article weren’t alive when the Oil won their Division last.
It’s not just a nice banner to raise in the fall, either. It guarantees home ice advantage through two rounds of the playoffs in this format. And, yes, we’re talking about multiple rounds of the playoffs. Wild.
Edmonton needs to beat the Canucks in any fashion. Regulation, overtime, shootout – it doesn’t matter. This is the part that is in their control. All they can do is play the game to win. If they get that job done it’s 50% of the conditions for the Pacific title. The other 50% is out of their control. They need the Kings to defeat the Ducks tonight – in regulation. If those things happen then Edmonton goes from 29th in the league and bottom in the Pacific to 6th in the NHL and tops in the Pacific.
Kings and Ducks drop the puck just 30 minutes before the Oilers and Canucks, so we wont know if this is a possibility until late in the night. Oh, and if the Oilers do take that top spot, the first round of the playoffs will be a matchup against the Calgary Flames.
The Canucks kept the score close last night, just as they have all year. It wasn’t an overly easy win and I doubt it will be tonight. Edmonton ought to win. They have everything to play for and the Canucks have nothing. Their fans don’t want the points. The Canucks drop from a 12.124% chance to win the top pick to an 8.517% chance if they pick up even 1 point.
LINEUP
Not sure who plays yet but it was announced last night that Brossoit would get the start. I’ll update the lines as more info is released.
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl Lucic RNH Eberle Pouliot Desharnais Kassian Caggiula Letestu Pakarinnen
Klefbom Larsson Sekera Russell Nurse Benning
Brossoit Talbot
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) 99. The next point that McDavid gets will place him at 99 on the season. The Canucks managed to keep McDavid to just a single point on the evening in Vancouver. It wasn’t for a lack of opportunities. Maroon blew an open net opportunity. Eberle had a backhander that went wide. A couple good Canuck sticks kept Draisaitl from unleashing hell from his one-timer. Connor McDavid was a little unlucky not to pick up more than one point last night. Here at home, with the Pacific Division on the line, it’s going to be one hell of a task to keep him from picking up points.
2) 100. Triple digits in this era of scoring is hard. Since the last lockout, only Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane have done it. They both won the Hart trophy in the years they did it. McDavid already has the 3rd highest scoring season on record since the 2012 lockout with the 98 points he already has. But 98 is not 100. There’s something special about crossing that plane. There’s a mystique about it and it’s attainable for McDavid. Tonight is his last opportunity to do it this season. All the stats get wiped out when the clock strikes midnight. The great players in the game, the truly great players, are more than the numbers they put up but the scorers push the boundaries. It’s possible for McDavid to score 100 in a season where nobody else hit 90. Not bad for his first full NHL season.
3) Stay Healthy. Last item on the agenda for the season. Don’t get hurt. The Oilers may have racked up some serious man-games lost but not to the top of the order for the forwards or the blueline. McDavid, Draisaitl, Lucic, RNH, Eberle, Maroon, and Klefbom are all capable of playing their 82 games tonight (barring any healthy scratches). The biggest loss of the season was Nurse, who has been Edmonton’s 5th defender. They can enter the playoffs relatively unscathed by the injury bug. During the fight between Nurse and Horvat all I could think was “Don’t break your hand. Don’t break your hand. Don’t break your hand.… Well, tonight is about 2 points in the standings, 2 points for McDavid, and nobody getting hurt.
Puck drops tonight at 7 PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!
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