It’s not panic time, but it’s definitely concerned anxiety time. This Oilers team is shooting lots but cannot buy a goal. The Canadiens are still the only team with a lower 5v5 shooting percentage. It’s going to change, but right now it sure feels like it wont.
This marquee matchup in the NHL faces Connor McDavid against Sidney Crosby. These two players are worth the price of admission each, so fans in the stands are getting a discount as far as I can tell. Oh, and of course that doesn’t even get into the discussion of where Malkin fits.
So the Penguins come in with Crosby and Malkin and the Oilers come in with McDavid and Draisaitl. If there was ever a game where you wanted both goalies to wain just a little, it’s tonight. Let’s hope these players put on a show.
What’s amazing about McDavid and Crosby is that while they exist as peers, they play nothing alike. McDavid is all speed and hands while Crosby plays a heady, protective game with the puck. Crosby will easily turn his back to the defender while the defender has to turn his back to McDavid.
What the Penguins have that the Oilers don’t, is a little more firepower on the wings. Crosby with Guentzel and Sheary followed by Malkin with Kessell and Rust is more established/effective than what the Oilers are throwing out there. Maroon is coming around, but Yamamoto is dying for a goal, Lucic is off to an underwhelming start, and Strome is…Strome.
What the Oil are doing with this lineup tonight, though, is using their center depth to hopefully tip the scales. The club is keeping the top 2 lines from the past several games and adding Draisaitl as the 3rd center with Caggiula and presumably Letestu on his wings. One of the areas that has suffered for Pittsburgh after being so successful was their center depth. It doesn’t look very strong and this Oiler combination appears to be trying to exploit that.
LINEUP
The team is expecting both Draisaitl and Caggiula to play. That means a couple people are coming out. Malone looks like a good bet to be a paper transaction back to the AHL to make room for Caggiula. Jokinen is a healthy scratch.
Maroon McDavid Yamamoto Lucic RNH Strome Letestu Draisaitl Caggiula Pakarinen Khaira Kassian
Klefbom Larsson Russell Benning Nurse Gryba
Talbot OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Starfish. The last two goals against for the Oilers have been while Kris Russell was sprawled out on the ice laying on his belly, desperately, hopelessly, flailing at the puck. Cool. There are some people who would call that elite defensive tactics that might save the game. Those people are simpletons. Others would call that move a complete waste of time that shows how out of position the player was and something that all but ensures they will remain out of position. Those people would be correct. It’s not fun for me to watch Kris Russell flop around the ice and bleed goals against despite what people think. However, I won’t be carrying water for the Oilers while they waste a season playing Russell in key situations.
2) Shots From The Blueline. This is going to sound like a strange issue, but the Oilers might actually be getting *too many* shots from the blueline. Defensemen make up three of their top 6 shot producers this year. Klefbom has 22, Nurse has 20, and Larsson has 17. Between them they have 1 goal. I think the goal totals will change (because I think Klefbom will start scoring) but shots from defenders typically have a lower sh%. Ideally what I’d like to see is the forwards start generating more shots and push Nurse and Larsson down the list. Klefbom was a volume shooter a year ago as well so I don’t expect him to drop. However, if both defensemen on one pair are shooting a ton, it begs the question what the forwards are doing at that time.
3) Chances. Shot totals and Corsi events aren’t everything. The number of chances created will eventually yield results. Teams that give them up in droves are going to get bitten eventually. Teams that create more than they give up should be rewarded. Tonight, the Oilers sit with the highest Scoring Chance percentage in the NHL with 60.1%. Nobody is very close. Most teams are in the low 50’s to high 40’s. The Penguins are 26th with a SCF% of 46.9 percent. The Penguins are 5-3-1 despite a heavily negative goal differential and team defense that looks like its bleeding chances. Something is gonna give.
Puck drops at 5PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet One. Game On! Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy