For me there is an easy litmus test to see if an individual understands hockey or not; ask them if they think Jesse Puljujarvi is a top six forward. If they answer no, than you know they don't truly understand the game.
Some individuals in the media have been harping on Puljujarvi, particularly after he failed to score on 2 Grade A Chances against Darcy Kuemper, who was amazing for the Avs as the Oilers fired 50 shots on net. These media individuals will cite that JP has only scored 3 goals since January 1st while also scoffing at the notion of Expected Goals For.
It is true that Jesse Puljujarvi has not scored much as of late but to say that he has not been an impact player for the Oilers is simply false. Goals are a huge aspect of the game but there is far more going on under the hood than just goals and assists and if some of these media individuals took the time to look at websites such as Natural Stat Trick or Quant Hockey and not merely a HockeyDB page they might actually learn something.
I know some individuals still roll their eyes at xGF% so instead let's look at actual goals for and against. Let's look at how the Oilers have faired with and without Jesse Puljujarvi on the ice since January 1st, you know, the length of time where he has only scored 3 goals...
First off, let's look at McDavid and Puljujarvi together since January 1st and the 5 on 5 numbers. The duo have played 188 minutes together at even strength, being on the ice for 14 goals for and only 1 goal against. Those are ridiculously good defensive numbers.
Here is a controversial take; Jesse Puljujarvi makes Connor McDavid better. That isn't to say Puljujarvi is better than McDavid, of course not, but the way Puljujarvi plays helps create more space for Connor McDavid. McDavid has played 489 minutes at 5 on 5 since January 1st, a little less than three times the number of minutes he has played with Puljujarvi. With those kinds of numbers you would expect the Oilers to score at least double the number of goals while allowing roughly the same, right?
Instead in those 489 minutes McDavid played away from Puljujarvi, the Oilers put up 21GF and 22GA. The Oilers actually allowed more goals against than they scored when McDavid was on the ice away from Jesse Puljujarvi.
As for Puljujarvi away from McDavid? JP played 231 minutes at 5 on 5 and when he was on the ice the Oilers put up 12GF and 8GA. It hasn't mattered whether JP has been with McDavid, Draisaitl, or RNH, whatever line that Jesse Puljujarvi has been on has routinely outscored the opposition and while it hasn't been Jesse burying those chances, it is his strong defensive play and forechecking ability that has created those chances.
We are discussing a 23 year old who is starting to figure out the NHL game and has still managed to go 13-21-34 in 59 games. Not every player is going to be a 30-40 goal scorer. Having a big forward who is elite defensively and can still put up 20-30-50 over a full season is the kind of player you want to lock up long term.
Is Puljujarvi gripping the stick a little tight right now and snake bit? Absolutely. But he is still getting off a number of high quality chances each game and eventually those start to go in. If he wasn't around the net and wasn't getting into positions to score that would be a concern. That is not the case.
Again, I am a huge proponent of signing Puljujarvi to a long term contract immediately. He is a unique player with a skillset that cannot be easily replaced who is struggling a bit right now to put up points but all the numbers suggest he could turn that around at any minute. Right now I think you could lock this player up on a seven or eight year deal worth around 4 million and be laughing for years to come. What I expect is going to happen is that the team will bridge the player, and when he starts potting 20-25 goal seasons and being one of their best defensive players he will get signed to a deal worth 6.5+.
Holland, Nicholson, Katz... I know you all read my blogs on a regular basis. Don't make the same mistake with this player as this organization has made with so many before. Recognize what you have and make the decision now to lock him up long term.
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Tonight the Oilers start a two game road trip against the Wild and Preds. Edmonton needs to continue finding ways to rack up points to stay in second place in the Pacific Division and secure home ice advantage.
Quick note. A week ago, it seemed obvious that the Oilers and Kings would face off in round 1 of the playoffs but that is prospect is dwindling as the Kings fall and the Golden Knights rise. Vegas now finds themselves just two points back of LA with a game in hand. Mark Stone is skating again and coincidentally the Golden Knights have the exact amount of cap space they can move to LTIR in order to fit him on the roster.
Vegas is a worst case scenario for round one of the playoffs. They are surging at the right time and once the playoffs start they will be roughly 10 million or more over the cap. Edmonton will play against the Golden Knights on Saturday... that is a game the Oilers need to win while also secretly hoping for the Kings to win some of their own.
Enjoy the game!