Five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Washington Capitals:
1. Hitting their stride The Capitals are not a great 5v5 team. They haven't been for much of the season, anyway. On the year, they rank bottom-7 in suppressing both shot attempts and chances, and they've controlled less than 50% of each. That's not ideal for a team expected to contend for the Stanley Cup.
There is some good news, though. The Capitals' numbers are on the upswing in a big way. They've remained dangerous offensively while, with the help of Carl Hagelin and Nick Jensen, drastically improving in their own end of the rink. As a result, they have posted a 57.71 Corsi For% and 56.37 Scoring Chance For% over the last 10 games. Extremely impressive numbers that have the Caps sitting at or near the top of the league.
As a surprise to nobody, the injury-plagued Devils sit at the other end of the spectrum with a 45.02 CF% and 46.92 SCF% during the same period.
While 5v5 is normally a game state lesser teams can try to beat the Capitals, or at least play them close to even, that doesn't figure to be the case tonight.
2. A penalty fest There generally isn't a ton of special teams play in today's NHL but I'd expect plenty of it in this game. Despite all the roster turnover, there's one constant with this year's Devils team: penalty trouble. They've spent 412 minutes shorthanded, which is more than all but Colorado and Anaheim. If we adjust to more recent games (the last 25, let's say) for a more accurate representation of the current roster, the Devils have fared even worse spending more time in the box than anyone.
The Capitals are in a similar boat. They've been shorthanded for 411 minutes this season (5th most), and 131 minutes over the last 25 (8th most). They play a pretty physical brand of hockey for an Eastern Conference team and that clearly lends itself to plenty of infractions.
Between the two sides, there will likely be quite a few minors in this one.
3. Doing it all Damon Severson is playing really good hockey right now. Perhaps his best of the season, if not career. With all the injuries, the Devils are asking him to do a lot in all game states. And he's answering the bell. At 5v5, Severson leads Devils blueliners in Corsi For% and Goals For% over the last 10 games. He's produced seven points (all situations) in that span, which leads the team, and on the power play he's recorded at least nine more attempts than every player except Kyle Palmieri. He is being heavily featured in every role right now and certainly making the most of it.
4. Lots of work The Capitals rank top-6 in shot attempts/60 and chances/60 at 5v5 over the last 10 games. They're generating a lot of looks, and we all know the caliber of the players that are taking the bulk of them. Mackenzie Blackwood is likely in for a difficult night, and he'll need to be on his game for the Devils to have a shot.
5. An off-season target Andre Burakovsky has long been an efficient 5v5 producer and this season is no different. He has averaged 1.88 points per 60 minutes played, which would rank him 4th on the Devils to Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier, and Jesper Bratt. Despite taking advantage of the opportunities he gets, the Capitals aren't giving him many. They continue to trot him out on the 4th line and come away disappointed when crazy numbers aren't there. I'd watch him closely because, be it to New Jersey or elsewhere, I think he's going to be traded in a few months.
Here are the projected lineups.
New Jersey Devils
Blake Coleman - Travis Zajac - Stefan Noesen Kenny Agostino - Kevin Rooney - Kyle Palmieri Drew Stafford - Blake Pietila - Joey Anderson Eric Tangradi - Michael McLeod - Kurtis Gabriel
Andy Greene - Damon Severson Will Butcher - Connor Carrick Egor Yakovlev - Steven Santini
Mackenzie Blackwood
Washington (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Alex Ovechkin - Evgeny Kuznetsov - Tom WIlson Jakub Vrana - Nicklas Backstrom - T.J. Oshie Carl Hagelin - Lars Eller - Brett Connolly Andre Burakovsky - Chandler Stephenson - Travis Boyd
Michal Kempny - John Carlson Dmitri Orlov - Matt Niskanen Brooks Orpik - Nick Jensen
Puck drop is just after 7:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on NBCSN and NBCSWA.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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