Through the Oilers past 4 games the team has gone 2-1-1 and secured another 5 points to keep the team moving towards the playoffs and potentially lock in home ice advantage as well. These are the good things.
Much less good is how Edmonton has garnered these points. There is a fairly strong case to be made that Edmonton should have zero points through their past four. xGF% (expected goals for) through the last four has been as followed; 27.91%, 47.89%, 31.58%, and 32.37%. As with most percentages, anything below 50% is not good.
Something is up with the Oilers this past week. Maybe it is the flu which prevented McDavid from playing last game against Vegas, maybe it's fatigue, whatever it is the Oilers have looked outmatched from the puck drop every game since betting their boot to the throat of the Nashville Predators. Goaltending has been a highlight for Edmonton recently but producing points like this is unsustainable. Edmonton can't keep pushing their luck.
The standings are becoming more and less clear at the same time. With only 11 or so games remaining depending on the teams, gaining any traction is a tough task. Right now Vegas looks like the favourite to clinch the division with 86 points through 71 games and Edmonton is in a good spot in second with 83 points through 70 games. They have four points on the Calgary Flames who currently sit third.
Nashville and Vancouver are a point behind Calgary each with a game in hand and the Wild are two points behind the Flames with a game in hand. Winnipeg sits one point back of Calgary having played the same amount of games. Arizona is almost officially out of the race.
What is interesting about all these teams beneath the Flames is that they all have more regulation wins than the Flames. Calgary actually has the 5th fewest wins in regulation in the Western Conference. Should Calgary tie with other team, regulation wins is the first tie-breaker.
A Calgary/Edmonton first round matchup would be quite the spectacle but I wonder if Oilers fans would rather see their rivals miss out on the playoffs entirely.
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Going back to the game at hand tonight, the Winnipeg Jets have turned on the....well....jets as of late, winning their last three in a row with a ten game record of 6-3-1. Though not as egregious as the Oilers, the Jets are also a team that have been getting beat in terms of xGF and have given up more chances than they are putting on net. Connor Hellebuyck has been a massive force for the Jets this season and is deserving of both the Vezina as well as at least some nominations for the Hart.
Hellebuyck has started the second most games in the league (55) behind Price (58) and has the second most wins (30). Through his last ten starts, he only has two games that have dipped below .900 and also has recorded two shutouts in that time.
One of those games where he went below 0.900 was against the Edmonton Oilers. Somehow the Oilers need to shake off the rust, disease, whatever it is and win against an opponent chasing them in the standings.
LINEUP
OILERS
RNH-McDavid-Kassian Athanasiou-Draisaitl-Yamamoto Ennis-Sheahan-Archibald Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
Klefbom-Larsson Nurse-Bear Jones-Benning
Smith
- It looks like McDavid and Yamamoto will both play tonight. Not surprised Smith gets the start as Tippett wants to keep both of his netminders fresh.
JETS Connor-Schiefele-Wheeler Ehlers-Eakin-Laine Copp-Lowry-Roslovic Perreault-Shore-Appleton
Morrissey-Demelo Kulikov-Pionk Beaulieu-Poolman
Hellebuyck
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3 KEYS TO VICTORY
1.)
I'm not going to do the regular "Keys To Victory" today. I've already outlined the real keys that the Oilers need to accomplish above. The biggest "key" this team needs to focus on right now is figuring out how to enter the oppositions zone consistently and generating real scoring chances.
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FILM OF THE DAY
A life of unluckiness seems to be what Stanley Yelnats in the movie Holes is cursed with as he is wrongfully arrested for a crime and sent to Camp Green Lake, a juvenile detention centre. Eventually, spoiler alert, Stanley finds a way to break the curse. Maybe if the Oilers carry a descendant of Madam Zeroni up a mountain they too can escape their current misfortune.