Five things to watch for when the New Jersey Devils take on the Pittsburgh Penguins:
1. Exploit P3 Jack Johnson has long been an anchor at 5v5 and Justin Schultz isn’t exactly known for his defensive prowess. As such, it’s not surprising they have struggled mightily together – even playing somewhat limited minutes on a defensively sound Penguins team.
The Pens are controlling just 43.58% of the attempts and 42.42% of the expected goals with Johnson and Schultz on the ice together. That has translated into some really poor results on the scoreboard, with the Penguins down 8-2 in goals across ~155 minutes.
The numbers for the top-4 defenders are much, much, much better so Alain Nasreddine should try and get his top two offensive lines out against Johnson and Schultz whenever possible.
You want to put your weapons in positions to produce and they’ll have the best odds of doing so against Pittsburgh’s shaky 3rd pairing.
2. Janne’s debut Devils prospect Janne Kuokkanen is expected to make his Devils debut tonight, albeit in underwhelming circumstances.
Kuokkanen is slated to play on the 4th line with Michael McLeod and Kevin Rooney. Those two have combined to score 10 goals in 127 NHL games so they are hardly ideal linemates for Kuokkanen. He’s a plus playmaker who ranks 2nd among players in his age group in primary assists at both even-strength and on the power play. Those talents are probably going to be wasted.
I’m hoping Kuokkanen a) shows some flashes early and moves up the roster or; b) at the very least is given some PP2 time to put his smarts and playmaking ability to use with extra time and space. I’m not optimistic but we’ll see if he is afforded that opportunity.
3. Another test for Mackenzie Blackwood Blackwood leads the league in goals saved above expectation since December 1st. He has been nothing short of spectacular for months.
That’ll need to be the case again tonight. As much as we’re hearing about improved defensive play of late, the numbers don’t really bear that out. The Devils still sit 30th in attempts against/60 and 28th in expected goals against/60 over the last 10 games. They just happen to own the best team save percentage in the NHL during that span, which masks a lot of problems.
We know New Jersey’s defensive personnel is weak. We know Pittsburgh, losers in eight of 10, are going to come out with their best effort. We also know they have the firepower throughout their lineup to put up goals in bunches.
I expect the opportunities to be there for them to do that so, again, Blackwood must be on his game.
4. Penalty killing prowess Pittsburgh has spent more time in the penalty box than all but six teams over the last 25 games. Despite this, only nine teams have allowed fewer goals while shorthanded. The Pens sit 6th in goals against/60 and 3rd in expected goals against/60. Put another way, discipline issues haven’t really caused problems for them because of their PKing ability.
It’s a similar story in New Jersey. They’ve spent ~2 fewer minutes on the PK than Pittsburgh. Again, it’s a non-issue because of how well they’ve performed shorthanded. The Devils sit 3rd in GA/60 and 6th in xGA/60, suggesting it’s no fluke they’ve done such a good job of keeping opponents off the scoreboard.
With each side being so effective at killing penalties, I wouldn’t expect a ton of PP success in this game. It’ll probably be solved at 5v5.
5. Recipe for disaster The Penguins recently put Patrick Marleau on the 2nd line, and dropped Patric Hornqvist down, to create some lineup balance. While L3 might be better for it, Mike Sullivan looks to have neutered the potent Evgeni Malkin-Bryan Rust duo.
We’re not yet dealing with a large sample size but the Pens are conceding 74.9 attempts, 35.7 chances and 3.7 expected goals per 60 with Marleau-Malkin-Rust on the ice. Even if those numbers all come down fairly significantly – let’s say 62 attempts, 29 chances, and 2.8 expected goals – they still won’t be good.
Much like the 3rd pairing, I think this is a unit the Devils can expose defensively.
Here are the projected lineups:
New Jersey Miles Wood - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri Jesper Bratt - Pavel Zacha - Nikita Gusev Jack Hughes - Travis Zajac - Joey Anderson Kevin Rooney - Michael McLeod - Janne Kuokkanen
Mirco Mueller - P.K. Subban Dakota Mermis - Damon Severson Connor Carrick - Freddy Claesson
Mackenzie Blackwood
Pittsburgh Jason Zucker - Sidney Crosby - Conor Sheary Patrick Marleau - Evgeni Malkin - Bryan Rust Jared McCann - Nick Bjugstad - Patric Hornqvist Brandon Tanev - Teddy Blueger - Evan Rodrigues
Brian Dumolin - Kris Letang Marcus Pettersson - John Marino Jack Johnson - Justin Schultz
Puck drop is just after 7:00 p.m. eastern on MSG+ and ATTSN-PT.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com Recent Posts On putting Kuokkanen in position to succeed and Blackwood’s absurd run