Here are a few things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Arizona Coyotes:
1. Protecting the puck Calgary made some really poor decisions with the puck in the 1st period vs Columbus and they paid the price for it. The Blue Jackets, thanks to strong counter attacking after self-inflicted mistakes, jumped out to an early 2-0 lead. It almost proved too much for the Flames to overcome.
I think it’s imperative they avoid shooting themselves in the foot again with poor puck management.
Why? Put simply, Arizona has Darcy Kuemper between the pipes. Only Anton Khudobin and Tuukka Rask, two quality netminders playing behind defensively stout teams, own higher 5v5 save percentages than Kuemper. He sits top-10 vs high-danger shots, too; he’s a very tough guy to beat.
When teams are sitting on leads, they can take fewer chances and play more conservative, structured hockey. It can be difficult generating high quality chances under those circumstances, and you’re not going to score very often on Kuemper taking Grade B and Grade C shots.
2. High-event hockey The Arizona Coyotes have long been a slow-paced, defensive-minded team. That’s not their style anymore – at least not of late. Quite the opposite, in fact.
They are playing some of the fastest, most high-event hockey in the league. They rank top-7 in attempts/60 and chances/60 over the last 10 games. Only Vegas generated more expected goals/60 in that time, which is hard to believe.
Unfortunately, the Coyotes are giving a lot of it back in their own end. They happen to sit bottom-7 in attempts against/60 and chances against/60 over the last 10.
The Flames generally play fast so, if Arizona’s recent form is any indication, this could be an action packed game.
3. Power (less) play Arizona is generating a lot of offense at 5v5 these days. It’s a good thing because they can’t do a whole lot on the man advantage.
On the year, Detroit is the only team averaging fewer shots/60 on the man advantage. The Coyotes are also bottom-7 in terms of expected goals and scoring chances. They have more talent than in recent years but it just hasn’t translated into PP success.
While shorthanded, the Flames allow chances at a higher rate than all but the New York teams. This is a spot where they *should* be able to handle themselves.
4. MMA vs MVP Taylor Hall is having a subpar season by his standards – he has 50 points in 63 games – but he averaged more than a point per game last year and won the Hart Trophy in 2017-18. He has the ability to take over on any given night. Luckily, the Flames are well equipped to prevent that from happening.
They have the luxury of sticking the MMA line, which owns an absurd 65 xGF% over the last 10 games, on Hall with Mark Giordano backing them up.
That foursome has been as potent as it sounds. They’ve been on the ice for just one goal and 10 Grade A chances in more than 80 minutes of work.
I like their odds of limiting Hall at 5v5 and making somebody else beat them.
5. The sneaky sniper Brayden Point. Nik Ehlers. Mika Zibanejad. Brady Tkachuk. Timo Meier. Those are all guys you gameplan around.
Where am I going with this? Let me tell you!
Coyotes winger Conor Garland has scored the exact same amount of 5v5 goals (16) as each of those characters. Only 26 players in the NHL have more.
Garland is very quietly one of the more efficient full-strength scorers in the NHL and he’s most likely going to see very little of the MMA line and Mark Giordano pairing.
He’s a tough assignment for the rest of the Flames. We’ll see if they can handle it. Projected lineups:
Calgary Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Andrew Mangiapane - Mikael Backlund - Matthew Tkachuk Milan Lucic - Sam Bennett - Dillon Dube Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Tobias Rieder
T.J. Brodie - Mark Giordano Noah Hanifin - Rasmus Andersson Derek Forbort - Erik Gustafsson
Cam Talbot
Arizona Taylor Hall - Christian Dvorak - Clayton Keller Conor Garland - Barrett Hayton - Phil Kessel Lawson Crouse - Derek Stepan - Vinnie Hinostroza Carl Soderberg - Brad Richardson - Nick Schmaltz
OEL - Ilya Lyubushkin Alex Goligoski - Niklas Hjalmarsson Jason Demers - Jordan Oesterle
Darcy Kuemper
Puck drop is just after 9:00 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SNW and FS-A Plus.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com Recent posts: