Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Arizona Coyotes:
1. Finding a way at 5v5 The Flames were one of the league's better 5v5 teams for months. That hasn't been the case of late. Over the last 10 games, the Flames have controlled just 49% of the shot attempts (20th) and 46.79% of the chances (25th). Oddly enough, it's not the team's depth that's tanking the numbers. It's the top line. I don't know whether teams are starting to figure them out, or they're hitting a mid-season wall. What I do know is they need to be better. The Coyotes have allowed more than 60 5v5 attempts/60 over the last 10 games – for perspective, only four teams can say that on the year – so perhaps a game against them is what the Big Threeâ„¢ needs to get going.
2. Power kills Today's game features the two most threatening PK units in the league. On the year, the Flames have scored 13 shorties. The Coyotes are right behind them with 11. No other team in the NHL has scored more than eight. These teams are very threatening on the PK and it does not come at the expense of defense. No team has allowed fewer power play goals than the Coyotes and the Flames are a top-5 side in terms of xGA/60. In other words, regardless if pucks are going in or not, they don't allow many chances.
I wouldn't expect a ton from the power plays in this one.
3. The Bread Man Andrew Mangiapane is playing fantastic hockey right now. Over the last 10 games, he has recorded 16 scoring chances at 5v5. Only Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik have more and they've played *checks notes* 60+ more minutes during that span. His on-ice numbers are equally, if not more, impressive as he leads the team with a 57.05 Corsi For% and the Flames have out-scored opponents 6-2 at full-strength. It's no secret the Flames want to add another forward to the mix. He won't be the guy losing his spot in the lineup if/when that happens should he continue playing like this.
4. Arizona's goaltending edge This season, 50 goaltenders have spent at least 1,000 minutes between the pipes. Darcy Kuemper ranks 18th in save percentage (.913) and 17th in goals saved above average (4.87) while Mike Smith sits 49th (.891) and 48th (-13.54). Smith has played alright of late but the Coyotes still have a pretty clear edge in goal. If this game is played fairly evenly, Kuemper is the better bet to be the difference.
5. Exploiting the 2nd line Alex Galchenyuk, Nick Cousins, and Clayton Keller make for a pretty good line on paper. They don't on the ice. At least they haven't thus far. At 5v5, the Coyotes are giving up 76 attempts and 36 chances per 60 minutes with them out there. Those are some truly horrific numbers. If Bill Peters wants to get CGY1 back on track, getting them steady ice against Arizona's 2nd line could be a good way to do it.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Austin Czarnik Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Arizona Coyotes (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Lawson Crouse - Derek Stepan - Josh Archibald Alex Galchenyuk - Nick Cousins - Clayton Keller Mario Kempe - Brad Richardson - Vinnie Hinostroza Conor Garland - Jordan Weal - Christian Fischer
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Niklas Hjalmarsson Alex Goligoski - Jakob Chychrun Kevin Connauton - Ilya Lyubushkin
Darcy Kuemper
Puck drop is just after 4:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and FS-A.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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