Here we are on Tuesday and still no Erik Karlsson, no Patrick Kane, no nothing as the Oilers have lost 4 straight games, their last 3 in OT or a shootout, and their last two losses after having a 3 goal lead. For most of this season, Oilers fans have been able to mock teams like the Calgary Flames who have had to rely on "loser points" just to stay relatively competitive; now it's those points that have helped to keep them in the position that they remain in.
The last two losses in particular have been unacceptable. I honestly don't care that the Oilers are struggling in the shootout or in OT suddenly. There is no shootout or 3 on 3 in the playoffs. What is far more unacceptable is their inability to hold a lead, and a three goal lead at that. Defensive mistakes, forwards failing to pick up their own man, and brutal goaltending has been the story in the past two games.
Goaltending in particular is a real issue and once again we are talking about Jack Campbell. If I told you that Campbell had gone 8-0-3 in his last 11 starts and didn't have a regulation loss since December 31st you would probably think he is playing pretty well and that is the narrative I have seen some in MSM preach in regards to the Oilers "starter."
However, Campbell has only posted 3 starts above 0.915SV% in those 11 games and has allowed 14 goals against in his last three starts. There have been defensive collapses by the team in front of him but a true starter will help to bail the team out in at least some of those instances... Edmonton is not getting that from Campbell.
Less than one year into the Campbell contract and there are already discussions about a buyout. Buying Campbell out after this season would give the Oil the following cap penalty each season:
23/24: 1.5 mil 24/25: 1.1 mil 25/26: 2.3 mil 26/27: 2.6 mil 27/28: 1.5 mil 28/29: 1.5 mil
The cap will continue to grow in the coming years making this type of penalty less severe, but that being said I despise buyouts and leaving money on the table, especially for a team that should be competing for a Cup right now.
As of today, I would say Holland should not buyout Campbell in the summer. I have faith in Skinner continuing to grow and improve and be the starter moving forward. Having roughly 7-8 million invested in your starter and backup is pretty good... even if the one making 5 million is your backup. If Skinner falters and shows he cannot be a true starter, we can start having the buyout conversation.
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There has been nothing on the Erik Karlsson front for days now and each passing day makes it feel less likely that such a trade could occur. Today, let's just rapid fire a few other names that could be out there for the Oilers.
Scott Mayfield (RD): The Islanders just got the brutal news that Mat Barzal is out indefinitely which greatly impacts the Islanders chances at making the playoffs. If they do become sellers, pending UFA right shot defender Scott Mayfield should absolutely be on the team's radar. Mayfield is an excellent shutdown defender who plays on the top pairing or top four for New York. He would be an upgrade on Cody Ceci.
Shayne Gostisbehere (LD): A far less sexy but sadly far more realistic option if Edmonton is looking for a puck moving defenseman. Has 29 points in 49 games but 10 of those have come on the powerplay and I don't expect him to get much PP time with the likes of Barrie on the roster. Would you play Ghost Bear over Broberg or Kulak right now? Maybe the latter...
Tanner Jeannot (LW/RW): After a great full rookie season with 24 goals in 81 games, Jeannot has struggled this season with only 5 goals in 54 games. Everyone should have expected regression after he shot 19.4% last season but it's gone pretty far the opposite way at 5.8%. The Preds are likely going to be sellers and in Jeannot isn't a fit for their long term plans he could be a useful player in the Oilers bottom six.
Colton Parayko (RD): Parayko is into the first season of his eight year 6.5 million per contract and already we are hearing that the Blues might want to trade him. Parayko has the worst GF% at 5 on 5 among defenders for the Blues this season; on the ice for 33 goals for and 52 goals against. His prior three years combined he has a 51.39 GF%. Likely someone that could be bought low on but still enormous risk with such a lengthy contract remaining.
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Out of these names, Jeannot and Mayfield are the only ones that really appeal to me. Maybe add another potential top six forward like Tyler Bertuzzi to the mix and Edmonton could run something like the following:
Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl Bertuzzi-RNH-Hyman Jeannot-McLeod-Yamamoto Janmark-Ryan-Foegele
Nurse-Mayfield Broberg-Bouchard Kulak-Barrie Desharnais
Skinner
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I have no idea what Ken Holland is going to do but right now it feels like Oilers fans should brace themselves for being dissapointed.