Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Florida Panthers:
1. A response from L1 It feels strange to say Calgary's top line needs to bounce-back following a seven-point performance but, well, they do. They primarily went toe-to-toe with Tampa Bay's top two lines and were handled pretty easily at 5v5. Their possession numbers were horrendous and Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm only recorded one 5v5 chance. Not one each, which still wouldn't be good. One total.
It's a near certainty they'll create more tonight. The question is how much. Creating offense against a line featuring Sasha Barkov, one of the best two-way centers in the game, and Jonathan Huberdeau, an excellent possession driving winger, is no easy task.
2. A cure for 5v5 offense The Flames have not threatened much at 5v5 of late. They just haven't. Over the last 10 games, they rank 25th in chances/60 and 24th in high-danger chances/60. That's not what you'd expect given the talent on the roster. The good news is, as a whole, the Panthers have struggled similarly on the defensive side of things. During the same span, the Cats rank 24th in chances against/60 and 28th in high-danger looks against/60. They're giving up a lot of good looks. That's trouble given how bad their goaltending is (on the year they rank 30th in team save percentage at 5v5). If the chances are there, opposing teams are generally able to convert. A date with the Panthers could be just what the Flames need to jump-start their offense and get back in the win column.
3. A sizeable goaltending edge Even though David Rittich has struggled of late, his season numbers – particularly at 5v5 – are very good. Rittich owns a .931 save percentage (10th) and has stopped 9.36 goals above average (7th), ranking near the top of the league in both categories among 51 eligible goaltenders.
James Reimer's numbers are better than Roberto Luongo's, however, they're still not good. He has a .912 save percentage (35th) and stopped -4.13 goals below average (35th), ranking lower third in each statistic.
Update: Mike Smith is expected to start, so don't expect quality goaltending from either side in this one.
4. Matthew Tkachuk's slump Tkachuk has quietly gone six consecutive games without a point. He's not generating many quality looks right now, either. During that six-game window, 10 Flames(!) have recorded as many or more 5v5 scoring chances, including names you wouldn't expect such as James Neal, Sam Bennett, Mark Jankowski, and Andrew Mangiapane. Garnet Hathaway(!!) sits only one chance behind Tkachuk over the same span. Suffice to say, they need Tkachuk to get going and jumpstart the 2nd line sooner than later.
5. A lethal power play Calgary is really good at killing penalties. Arguably the best. Still, they'll be playing with fire if they aren't disciplined in this one. Florida has scored 49 power play goals – 2nd only to Tampa Bay – and they sit 3rd in the league in terms of goals scored/60. They draw a ton of power plays and, clearly, are quite efficient when they get them.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Sam Bennett Andrew Mangiapane - Mark Jankowski - James Neal Michael Frolik - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Florida Panthers (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Jonathan Huberdeau - Sasha Barkov - Frank Vatrano Evgenii Dadonov - Vincent Trocheck - Mike Hoffman Derick Brassard - Henrik Borgstrom - Denis Malgin Jamie McGinn - Riley Sheahan - Troy Brouwer
Keith Yandle - Aaron Ekblad Michael Matheson - Mark Pysyk Bogdan Kiselevich - Josh Brown
James Reimer
Puck drop is just after 7:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and FS-F.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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