Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Winnipeg Jets:
1. A better start
In two of the last three games – and three of Calgary's last four losses – they came out completely flat, trailed after 20, and were unable to overcome those deficits over the final 40 minutes. The Flames have the ability to erase poor starts from time-to-time but it's difficult to consistently win that way, which is what we're seeing right now. On the road against one of the true Stanley Cup favorites, it's imperative they start on time. If they no-show again in the opening period, the game will be all but over.
2. Team discipline The Jets are absolutely deadly on the man advantage. They rank 4th in Corsi For/60, 5th in Expected Goals For/60, and 2nd in *actual* Goals For/60. With the personnel they have, it's hardly surprising they're near the top of the league in basically every key metric.
As fantastic as the Flames have been killing penalties of late, that's something they really don't want to do often tonight. They'll be hard-pressed to snap their three-game losing streak if they don't stay out of the box.
3. Low-event hockey? At the beginning of the season, the Flames were playing up-tempo, high-event hockey and trading chances. They relied on out-scoring their problems. As the defense grew into its own, and injuries/lineup decisions altered the bottom-6, their style completely changed.
Over the last 10 games, the Flames rank 31st in both shot attempt and scoring chance pace at 5v5. They're not generating much in the way of volume, nor are they conceding much.
I'm interested to see if that trend continues now that they're starting to get bodies back. I think they should be pushing the pace more with the personnel they have.
4. James Neal's scoring drought The veteran winger has gone 22 consecutive games without scoring a goal at 5v5. It's been an absolutely miserable run for someone who has consistently filled the net for as long as I remember.
On the bright side, he showed signs of life in the last game before the break piling up nine shot contributions and looking dangerous alongside 2M as both a shooter and a playmaker. The key is building on that with another solid performance rather than going invisible (yet again) for another couple weeks.
5. A 4th line wasteland Derek Ryan is a useful depth player. He is not someone who is going to drive a line with a pair of subpar wingers. That's what the Flames are asking him to do. Alan Quine and Garnet Hathaway are the two worst wingers on the roster in terms of Corsi For%. Their numbers together are horrendous as well, albeit over a small sample size.
Comparatively, Hathaway's numbers with Austin Czarnik on the other wing are good.
I don't get why Czarnik can't get steady ice when his numbers are strong and the alternatives clearly aren't working. By putting Quine and Hathaway together, the Flames are essentially rendering the 4th line useless. I think that will show, especially if Adam Lowry and Andrew Copp are back in the lineup.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - James Neal Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Michael Frolik Alan Quine - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Winnipeg (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Nik Ehlers - Mark Scheifele - Blake Wheeler Kyle Connor - Bryan Little - Patrik Laine Mathieu Perreault - Jack Roslovic - Brandon Tanev Brendan Lemieux - Nic Petan - Mason Appleton
Note: Adam Lowry and Andrew Copp both skated, could return to the lineup.
Josh Morrissey - Jacob Trouba Ben Chiarot - Dustin Byfuglien Dmitry Kulikov - Tyler Myers
Connor Hellebuyck
Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and TSN3.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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