The New Jersey Devils have a rare opportunity to complete the sweep of a six-game homestand tonight when they host the Buffalo Sabres.
One would think they have a good chance of doing just that as the Sabres rank 30th in points, goal differential, and have won just four of their 20 road games thus far.
Their underlying numbers suggest it's no fluke they're a bottom feeder once again as they rank 29th in Expected Goals For% and 25th in Corsi For%.
It's hard to win games when you get outplayed at 5v5 every night. It's even harder when you get crushed on special teams, too, and that's the case for the Sabres.
Through 37 games they have a +4 goal differential on the power play. Yes, you're reading that correctly. For every 9.25 games the Sabres play, their PP manages to outscore opposing team's penalty killing units by one goal.
The Sabres have some star power up front but their roster is shallow and they're poor in a lot of different areas. This is a game the Devils should win.
Here are the projected lineups:
New Jersey
Taylor Hall - Nico Hischier - Jesper Bratt Marcus Johansson - Travis Zajac - Kyle Palmieri Miles Wood - Pavel Zacha - Stefan Noesen Blake Coleman - Brian Boyle - Brian Gibbons
Andy Greene - Steven Santini John Moore - Sami Vatanen Will Butcher - Damon Severson
Cory Schneider
Detroit (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Zemgus Girgensons - Jack Eichel - Sam Reinhart Evander Kane - Ryan O'Reilly - Kyle Okposo Benoit Pouliot - Evan Rodrigues - Jason Pominville Johan Larsson - Jacob Josefson - Jordan Nolan
Marco Scandella - Rasmus Ristolainen Jake McCabe - Zach Bogosian Nathan Beaulieu - Justin Falk
Robin Lehner
What to watch for:
1) Kane has quietly been one of the best chance generators in the league this season as he ranks 6th in the NHL with 145. He has the shot to score from a distance and the speed and power to get to the net pretty much any time he wants so the Devils are going to have their hands full with him.
2) Buffalo is tied for last in shorthanded goals allowed with eight while the Devils are tied for 3rd with six shorthanded goals for and they rank 1st in xGF/60 while down a man. Don't be surprised if the Devils are able to generate some good looks on the PK.
3) After taking three penalties last time out, Hischier's now down to 5th in the NHL with a +11 differential and four back of Mathew Barzal for top spot. The Sabres don't take a ton of penalties – only three teams have taken fewer at 5v5 – so Hischier will really have to work to get that differential going in the right direction again.
4) Schneider has been great all season but especially so of late as he owns a .937 save percentage(!) over his last seven starts. No team has scored less than Buffalo so he *should* be able to stay hot in this one.
5) Eichel has been on the ice for 25 goals at 5v5. He has recorded a point on 23 of them. He is involved in absolutely everything so the Devils really need to make sure they're always on top of him. If tightening up on Eichel means Girgensons or Reinhart have a little more breathing room, the Devils should take their chances and live with it.
Puck drop is just after 7:00 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on MSG+ and MSG-B.
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