It’s a big ask from Santa this year, but all Oilers fans everywhere have put a playoff drive on their lists. And where once it might has seemed almost impossible, there is at least a glimmer of hope still out there this Christmas. If you're out there Santa, I also want PS4 Pro. Just saying.
Edmonton is still 2nd last in the West, but the teams are bunched together so much so that only 5 points separate 7 teams. It's not the 5 points that Edmonton is chasing. It’s those 7 teams. They may win tonight and still only be 5 points back of the final playoff spot. However, they may have leapfrogged past the Canucks or the Avalanche (or both).
This is a marathon, not a sprint, yet. But here’s where the Oilers have an advantage that they finally started using to help turn this season around: Their three offensive centres. Edmonton’s strength in the forward corps is down the middle with McDavid, RNH, and Draisaitl.
The Oil have the luxury of being able to throw McDavid over the boards, then RNH, then Draisaitl, and then start with McDavid all over again. When they mix in a 4th line that has started to contribute more consistently then you have the ability to overwhelm teams and/or break their matchup plans.
Here are some of the 5v5 numbers for the current line combinations:
Lucic McDavid Puljujarvi 54.6% CF (131-109) xGF 59.1%
Maroon RNH Cammalleri* 57.6% CF (80-59) xGF 60.7%
Khaira Drai Strome 54.5% CF (61-51) xGF 56.3%
During 5v5 play, the Oilers have controlled the ice with these combinations. Letestu and Kassian are also above 50% in shot attempts, which means that the Oilers aren’t running any lines that are dragging the club and putting them in significant danger when on the ice.
What this means for Edmonton is that the team has current stability 5v5 and given their talent level down the middle, they should over time continue to be a net-positive club at even strength. In fact, they do have a positive goal differential 5v5 (+3). If they can keep pushing their special teams in a positive direction then they have a chance to make this miracle run.
If there is a trade in store for the Oilers that adds a goal scorer or offensive defender to boost the PP and overall shooting talent then the possession dominance that the Oilers have shown might translate into even more goals for. Adding a finisher to the Draisaitl line might be an X-factor for this club.
* Cammalleri, Caggiula, Slepyshev have all been rotating off that line. It’s Caggiula today.
Points Back: 5
LINEUP
Not expecting changes.
Lucic McDavid Puljujarvi Maroon RNH Caggiula Khaira Draisaitl Strome Cammalleri Letestu Kassian
Sekera Benning Nurse Russell Davidson Larsson
Talbot
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Making A List. The Oilers spanked the Habs to the tune of 6-2 just a couple weeks ago and that was really the beginning of Edmonton playing particularly well and giving themselves a chance towards the post-season. Montreal has, no doubt, kept that game in the back of their minds waiting for the chance to exact some revenge. Carey Price was chased in that game and Khaira had a couple goals for himself. Shaw and Nurse traded fisticuffs in that match. We shall see if Nurse can avoid getting sucked into a fight or if both teams use the opportunity to set the tone early.
2) Some Magic In That Old Hat. Andrej Sekera’s return on Thursday was a solid all-around performance in which he played 16 minutes. McLellan did him some favors, limiting his icetime and putting him out for primarily offensive zone starts. Sekera and Benning as a duo had solid possession metrics despite finishing -1 in traditional plus/minus. He is getting 1st unit PP time as well. It was a particularly intense game against the Blues and Sekera looks good in the comeback. Now we see how much more time he gets in game 2. Does McLellan start that ramp-up now or give him another sheltered start?
3) Never Let Him Play In Any Reindeer Games. Alex Galchenyuk’s Hab career has been as up and down as any I can think of since he joined the league. He has been pushed to the wing then back to centre then back to the wing again. He has been ran ragged by the local press who have accused him of everything from being lazy to having major off-ice issues. What I can say for certain, is that the kid is on pace for 47 points this year and he’s averaging just under 15 minutes a night. He’s had 12 points in his last 12 games and he’s tied for 2nd in Habs scoring but they really avoid playing him. He’s the most lethal Hab on the PP. Keeping them at 5v5 is really going to help keep him under wraps.
Puck drops tonight at 5PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!
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