Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Tampa Bay Lightning:
1. A defensive battle It feels strange to suggest we could be in for a low-scoring game when the likes of Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Johnny Gaudreau, and Sean Monahan, among many other notables, are featured. I'll be the first to admit this has potential to age poorly given these kinds of players don't need many opportunities to convert. In saying that, from a pure volume perspective, I think there's reason to believe it could be a relatively tight game.
Over the last 10, the Flames have allowed 48.59 attempts/60 (1st), 22.16 chances/60 (3rd), and 9.85 high-danger looks/60 (6th) at 5v5. They're really not giving up much right now.
In part due to a depleted bottom-6, they're also not generating a ton. Only New York (R) and Detroit have averaged fewer chances for/60 over the last 10.
A date with the Lightning is a not exactly a 'get right' spot either. They rank top-10 in suppressing attempts (6th), chances (10th), and high-danger chances (2nd) over the last 10.
With Calgary's chance generation numbers dipping, and both teams playing pretty tight defense, I think this could be lower scoring than most would expect.
2. Rittich vs Vasilevskiy Another reason I wouldn't be surprised if the nets don't get filled: goaltending.
David Rittich has been a very pleasant surprise on a Flames team filled with them. Among 41 eligible goaltenders, Rittich ranks 4th with a ridiculous .942 save percentage at 5v5. Only Pekka Rinne, Jaroslav Halak, and Mikko Koskinen have stopped pucks at a higher clip.
While Vasilevskiy's numbers aren't as impressive, they are still strong. He ranks 15/41 with a .927 save percentage at 5v5. He's also one of the most athletically gifted goaltenders you will see.
If both teams continue to defend as they have of late, I have a hard time believing these two goaltenders will concede very often.
Update: Louis Domingue is expected to start for the Lightning. 3. Power plays will be a factor The Flames average 4.27 drawn calls/60, which is the 3rd best rate in the league. The Lightning aren't far behind sitting 8th with 4.07 drawn calls/60. Both teams are really good at providing opportunities for their power plays to go to work. When that happens, they're among the best at converting. No team has scored more power play goals than the Lightning. Meanwhile, the Flames sit 5th and have been one of the best PP teams in the league over the last couple of months.
4. Mark Giordano The 35-year-old has taken his game up a notch. Over the last 10 games, he leads all defenders in points (15), primary points (9), and has piled up 53 shot attempts to go with it.
Giordano's put up those ridiculous totals while playing big minutes against stiff competition. He's driven play in the process as, at 5v5, he owns a 56.4 CF% and 58.6 SCF% during this stretch.
Win or lose, you can bank on him making an impact.
5. 3rd pairing usage Dressing Dalton Prout a couple times as a 7th defender has factored in, no doubt, but Bill Peters has clearly tightened the rope of the 3rd pairing. Averaging almost 15:30 per night on the year, Andersson has seen his ice dip significantly over the last handful of games.
I'd expect that trend to continue tonight against a blazing fast Lightning team that is loaded with firepower. If Peters didn't give the 3rd pairing much run vs teams like St. Louis and Philadelphia, I wouldn't expect him to vs perhaps the best team in the NHL.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Sam Bennett Alan Quine - Mark Jankowski - James Neal Ryan Lomberg - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Tampa Bay (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Ondrej Palat - Steven Stamkos - Yanni Gourde Tyler Johnson - Brayden Point - Nikita Kucherov Alex Killorn - Anthony Cirelli - J.T. Miller Adam Erne - Cedric Paquette - Ryan Callahan
Victor Hedman - Dan Girardi Ryan McDonagh - Erik Cernak Anton Stralman - Mikhail Sergachev
Andrei Vasilesvkiy
Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and SUN.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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