Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Dallas Stars:
1. Contrasting styles of play The Flames have shown us they can handle themselves just fine in grind-it-out, pace-down spots. This might be one of them.
Many thought the Stars would unleash their, well, stars and play a faster brand of hockey than they did under Ken Hitchcock. That hasn't been the case thus far, although perhaps they've been less willing to do so with John Klingberg out. Whatever the reason, the Stars play slow, low-event hockey.
At 5v5, the Stars sit 26th in Expected Goal pace (xG + xGA/60). Only Buffalo, Minnesota, St. Louis, Los Angeles, and Boston sit below them in that regard.
On home soil, the Stars will control the matchups. Look for them to use that to try and slow down the Flames' high-flying offense. I don't think the Stars want this to turn into a track meet.
2. Calgary's PP vs Dallas' PK Over the last couple months, Calgary has fired on all cylinders on the man advantage. Only four teams in the NHL have scored more PP goals as a result.
It could be difficult for them to stay hot tonight, though. Dallas has allowed the 4th fewest power play goals and they sit 8th in xGA/60, suggesting their success is no fluke. They're pretty good at limiting chances and Ben Bishop has been there to clean up any mess when they do. I don't think the Flames can rely on too much from their power play in this one.
3. Top-heaviness With Michael Frolik and Sam Bennett out of the lineup, the bottom-6 was a little shallow in St. Louis. It showed. While score effects likely played a part (the Flames led for almost the entire game), the bottom half of the roster spent a lot of time in the defensive zone and was caved in possession-wise.
While Bennett is expected back in the lineup tonight, James Neal is now out of the fold. Essentially the same cast of characters that struggled vs a bad Blues team will be relied on against the Stars. We'll see if they can step up.
4. The MMA line is back Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, and Austin Czarnik have dominated teams territorially every time they've been together. In ~50 minutes, they've controlled 65.7% of the attempts (+69/-36) and 62.9% of the scoring chances (+39/-23). The results (two goals for, two against) haven't necessarily been there but that'll change sooner than later if they continue to play this well.
5. A potential goaltending duel Among 43 eligible goaltenders (700+ minutes), David Rittich ranks 7th with a .925 save percentage and he's saved 8.2 goals above average. Ben Bishop has played similarly well for the Stars. He sits 10th with a .920 save percentage and has saved 7.26 goals above average.
If their play to date is any indication, we may not see many goals in this one.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Austin Czarnik Kerby Rychel - Derek Ryan - Sam Bennett Alan Quine - Mark Jankowski - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Dallas (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Jamie Benn - Tyler Seguin - Denis Gurianov Valeri Nichushkin - Devin Shore - Alexander Radulov Radek Faksa - Martin Hanzal - Tyler Pitlick Mattias Janmark - Jason Dickinson - Blake Comeau
Esa Lindell - Julius Honka Miro Heiskanen - Roman Polak Gavin Bayreuther - Taylor Fedun
Ben Bishop
Puck drop is just after 8:30 eastern and can be seen on SNW and FS-SW.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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