Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Nashville Predators:
1. Shaking up the 3rd line If there was one glaring weakness at even-strength in the home-and-home series vs Vancouver, it was most definitely the Dillon Dube - Derek Ryan - James Neal line.
As a team, the Flames were expected to score nearly 63% of the goals at 5v5. The 3rd line, however, was expected to score ~28% of the goals at 5v5. Small sample size, of course, but that is absolutely dreadful.
The 3rd line spent a lot of time chasing play in their own zone and struggled immensely to drive play through the neutral zone and into the offensive zone. Whenever they managed to do so, they didn't generate much.
As a result, Bill Peters has made a few changes. He demoted Derek Ryan, promoted Sam Bennett, and moved Dube to the middle of the ice. That is probably a smart call as it will allow him to have the puck more and he's probably the best carrier/driver on the line.
It's almost certain this version of L3 will fare better than the last. How much better is the question.
2. A golden spot for the power play Nashville's Achilles heel is discipline. Last season they led the league with 374 minors taken and only six teams had a worse penalty differential than the Predators (-28). They simply couldn't stay out of the box. Given they play very aggressively and are returning a nearly identical roster, it's fair to expect similar this year – especially tonight against a Flames team that features several elite penalty drawers (Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau and James Neal).
Beating the Predators at 5v5 will be very difficult so the Flames will need to capitalize on a power play or two. They should have plenty of opportunities to do so.
3. Goaltending It was poor down the stretch last year, it was poor in the preseason, and it's been poor in the early goings of this season.
Be it Mike Smith or David Rittich (he will get one of the next two starts), the Flames really need a quality showing from their starter. You aren't going to take out a team like the Predators otherwise.
4. 2M The Mikael Backlund/Matthew Tkachuk duo has been as dominant as any to start the year. No, that's not an exaggeration.
The Flames have out-attempted opponents 37-9 (80.34 CF%) and out-chanced them 21-4 (84 SCF%) in just over 20 minutes with that duo on the ice. Those are absolutely absurd numbers.
Numbers like that are not sustainable over a longer period of time, however, it helps put in perspective just how much the ice has been tilted in Calgary's favor when they're out there. If they continue to control play, the results will come.
5. The future is now I, for one, am very much looking forward to seeing the Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson pairing in action tonight.
Valimaki's early season numbers have been very encouraging, especially when you consider both his partners (Michael Stone/Dalton Prout) have been immobile defenders who can't move the puck. Valimaki was forced to do all the heavy lifting and play driving, which won't be the case with Andersson by his side.
Though this pairing is very inexperienced and raw, I think they have the talent to hold their own against a fantastic Predators team. We'll see if that's the case.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary (via @Fan960Steinberg)
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Austin Czarnik Sam Bennett - Dillon Dube - James Neal Anthony Peluso/Garnet Hathaway - Derek Ryan - Micheal Frolik
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Michael Stone Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Nashville (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Filip Forsberg - Ryan Johansen - Viktor Arvidsson Kevin Fiala - Kyle Turris - Craig Smith Calle Jarnkrok - Nick Bonino - Ryan Hartman Frederick Gaudreau - Colton Sissons - Miikka Salomaki
Roman Josi - Ryan Ellis Mattias Ekholm - P.K. Subban Anthony Bitetto/Dan Hamhuis - Yannick Weber
Pekka Rinne
Puck drop is just after 8:00 eastern and can be seen on Sportsnet Flames and FS-TN.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
Recent posts: On Valimaki, a slow start for the Neal line, and more