Five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the New York Islanders:
1. Exposing a fraud Despite what their record suggests, the Islanders are not a good team. They're not even an average team. They're a fraud.
At 5v5, they rank 27th in Corsi For% and 23rd in Expected Goals For% yet only four teams have a better goal differential in that game state. Why? A lot of luck.
Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss have provided borderline elite goaltending, which I wouldn't bet on continuing. More importantly, only one team has a higher 5v5 shooting percentage. That has led to many players punching above their weight class, as evident by the team's leaders in terms of points per 60.
Mathew Barzal is producing at a higher clip than the likes of Taylor Hall, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Jonathan Toews, among others, and still sits 11th among forwards on the Islanders.
Tom Kuhnhackl is producing at a good clip because he is shooting 37.5%. Valtteri Filppula is producing at a good clip because he is shooting 28.6%. Brock Nelson is producing at a good clip because he is shooting 25%. Matt Martin is producing at a good clip because...you get the point. Nelson is decent – at least offensively – but the Islanders can't rely on a bunch of fringe NHLers to shoot the lights out all season long. Regression is inevitable, and the Isles will crater down the standings when that happens. It's already starting to.
Though the Devils' start has been rocky, their underlyings suggest they are a much better 5v5 team. If they stay out of the box, they'll have a good chance of walking away with another much-needed win.
2. Secondary scoring For almost two months the Devils were desperate to get something, anything, from the 2nd line. Guys like Blake Coleman and Travis Zajac did a great job of producing (mostly) in the bottom-6 while Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier, and Kyle Palmieri ran show on the top line. The 2nd line was really quiet. That's finally starting to change.
Jesper Bratt has joined Marcus Johansson and Pavel Zacha on the 2nd line since returning to the lineup. So far, so good from that combination.
They've controlled nearly 58% of the shot attempts and out-scored opponents 3-1 through ~50 minutes of ice. Analytically, the early returns are encouraging and they've certainly passed the eye-test.
Today they get a good matchup against a very shallow New York Islanders team. I think they'll be able to take advantage of it.
3. A good power play spot New Jersey's power play numbers are much like New England's yards per play numbers. They suggest not a ton of success should be had but they find a way to get the job done, anyway. That was the case for the Devils last year and it has carried over this season (they rank 22nd in xGF/60 but 13th in GF/60). This is a really good spot for the PP to get on the board again. The Islanders sit 25th in shot suppression and 29th in expected goals against while down a man.
4. Shooting from the point One thing the Devils will really have to watch for is Islanders defenders jumping into the play and firing away. They have three defensemen in the top-55 in terms of shot attempts/60. Johnny Boychuk ranks 10th, Scott Mayfield ranks 35th, and Ryan Pulock, who has the best shot of the bunch, slots 55th. For perspective, Ben Lovejoy is the only Devils defender expected to dress that cracks the top 145.
5. Discipline is important Staying out of the box is an issue for the Devils. Only five teams have taken more penalties on a per 60-minute basis. Should the Devils get into penalty trouble tonight, the Islanders are capable of taking advantage. They rank 7th in expected goals for/60, meaning they're quite good at generating quality looks while up a man.
Here are the projected lineups.
New Jersey Devils
Taylor Hall - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri Marcus Johansson - Pavel Zacha - Jesper Bratt Blake Coleman - Travis Zajac - Stefan Noesen* Miles Wood - Brett Seney - J.S. Dea
*would assume he'll fill in if Joey Anderson can't go
Andy Greene - Damon Severson Mirco Mueller - Egor Yakovlev Will Butcher - Ben Lovejoy
Keith Kinkaid
New York (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Anders Lee - Mathew Barzal - Josh Bailey Tom Kuhnhackl - Brock Nelson - Jordan Eberle Anthony Beauvillier - Valtteri Filppula - Leo Komarov Ross Johnston - Stephen Gionta - Cal Clutterbuck
Nick Leddy - Ryan Pulock Thomas Hickey - Scott Mayfield Adem Pelech - Johnny Boychuk
Robin Lehner
Puck drop is just after 4:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on MSG and MSG+.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey