Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Los Angeles Kings:
1. Contrasting styles When you think of the Kings, you think of slow, boring, low-event hockey – and for good reason. They have played that way for years and nothing has changed this season. They rank 27th in Expected Goals For/60 (2.07) and 4th in Expected Goals Against/60 (2.10). In other words, they don’t generate or concede many scoring opportunities.
The Flames are quite the opposite. They slot 6th in Expected Goals For/60 (2.72) and 23rd in Expected Goals Against/60 (2.54). Though they have tightened up significantly of late, they are still one of the faster paced, more high-event teams in the league.
It’ll be interesting to see which team can dictate play and force the other out of their comfort zone. If it turns into a track meet, that definitely favors the Flames.
2. LA2 Not much has clicked for the Kings offensively this year, however, they look to have found something in the Ilya Kovalchuk - Jeff Carter - Tyler Toffoli line. That trio owns a 60.26 Corsi For% and 59.38 Scoring Chance For% in ~45 minutes together. It’s scary they’ve dominated territorially to that extent given the shooting talent they possess. Though the top line features a 2017-18 Hart Trophy finalist, it’s the 2nd line I’d be most worried about.
3. An aggressive PK Despite spending fewer minutes killing penalties than all but three teams, the Kings are tied for 4th in short-handed goals. The Kings also rank near the top of the league with a +5 penalty differential while down a man. They’re not only a threat to score (beyond a pair of SHGs, they rank 6th in shorthanded xGF/60) but to force teams into penalties and level the playing field. The Flames will have to be sharp while up a man this evening. If they’re loose, the Kings will pressure them into mistakes.
4. Exposing Dion Phaneuf Dating back to last season, 10 defenders have logged at least 200 5v5 minutes for the Kings. Phaneuf ranks 8th in Corsi Against/60, 8th in Scoring Chances Against/60, 9th in High-Danger Scoring Chances Against/60, and 8th in penalties taken/60. He is clearly one of the worst defenders on the team and his aggressiveness/lack of foot speed leads to a lot of penalties. One would think he’d be sheltered but, for some reason, he is expected to skate on the top pairing alongside Drew Doughty. He’ll no doubt see a ton of the Johnny Gaudreau line, which is rocking ~60CF% over the last five games and looking downright dominant. I think they could cause Phaneuf all kinds of problems.
5. Goaltending Through 16 games the Flames have gotten .900SV% goaltending or better just seven times. They won six of those games and the lone exception was a one-goal defeat. They’re an excellent offensive team so if they have anything resembling average goaltending, they’re probably going to win. We’ll see if they get it tonight.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - James Neal Sam Bennett - Derek Ryan - Michael Frolik Garnet Hathaway - Mark Jankowski - Austin Czarnik
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith/David Rittich (will update when confirmed)
Los Angeles (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Alex Iafallo - Anze Kopitar - Dustin Brown Ilya Kovalchuk - Jeff Carter - Tyler Toffoli Tanner Pearson - Adrian Kempe - Matt Luff Kyle Clifford - Nate Thompson - Trevor Lewis
Dion Phaneuf - Drew Doughty Jake Muzzin - Alec Martinez Derek Forbort - Oscar Fatenberg
Jack Campbell
Puck drop is just after 10:00 eastern and can be seen on SN, CBC, SN360 and FS-W.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.