Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Colorado Avalanche:
1. COL1 vs 3M Colorado's top line has been stupid good this season. While they haven't dominated the shot clock, they have gotten the better of the chances and certainly made the most of that to the tune of a +9 goal differential (12 for, three against) at 5v5 through just 12 games.
They'll no doubt see a steady dose of 3M tonight. While their overall numbers are fairly good, and it is still very early, they have been much leakier defensively than we have seen in years past.
If that continues tonight, they could be in trouble against arguably the league's best offensive line. They really don't need many opportunities to capitalize.
2. Low-event hockey? Colorado ranks bottom-10 in xGF/60 and top-10 in xGA/60 thus far. In other words, they're not generating or giving up a ton of quality looks at 5v5. After consistently playing fire-wagon hockey to start the year, the Flames have started to tighten up and that shows in the numbers; they've tied their season-best allowing 11 high-danger looks in consecutive games.
While both teams have the star power to fill the net, the numbers suggest we might not see a ton of offense tonight (unless the goaltending is poor).
3. Special teams, special teams, special teams If you like power plays, this should be the game for you. Colorado ranks 3rd in penalties taken *and* penalties drawn. Meanwhile, a Flames team featuring the likes of Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, and James Neal unsurprisingly leads the league in drawn calls. Expect a lot of special teams play in this one.
4. Calgary's top line Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm were absolutely dominant during the mini-road trip through Toronto and Buffalo. They controlled better than 60% of the shot attempts while contributing to four of the five goals the Flames scored. They also accounted for better than 40% of the team's chances.
They're playing their best hockey of the season and now they draw a penalty-prone Avalanche team with a banged up, shallow forward core. It could be another strong night for them.
5. Noah Hanifin's offense It feels like Hanifin has been really involved offensively over the last four games, which coincides with Travis Hamonic's return to the lineup.
With that in mind, I dug into the numbers to see if there was anything to that. It sure seems like there is.
Hanifin has contributed 25 shot attempts and 10 chances at 5v5 in five games with Hamonic compared to 14 attempts and three chances in eight games without him. His underlying numbers are much better with Hamonic, too.
We're still dealing with small samples but Hanifin really seems to benefit from playing with a defense-first, stay-at-home type like Hamonic as opposed to a more offensive minded rookie (Rasmus Andersson) or boat anchor (Michael Stone).
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - James Neal Garnet Hathaway - Derek Ryan - Dillon Dube
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Colorado (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Gabriel Landeskog - Nathan MacKinnon - Mikko Rantanen Alexander Kerfoot - Vladislav Kamenev - Colin Wilson Matt Nieto - Carl Soderberg - Matt Calvert Marko Dano - Sheldon Dries - A.J. Greer
Sam Girard - Erik Johnson Ian Cole - Tyson Barrie Nikita Zadorov - Patrik Nemeth
Semyon Varlamov
Puck drop is just after 7:00 eastern and can be seen on SN1 and ALT.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
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