Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Toronto Maple Leafs:
1. A better effort from Mike Smith Saturday's loss vs Washington was not all on Smith, however, it was yet another underwhelming start. He allowed three goals on 27 shots (.889 save percentage) and conceded twice in four shootout attempts. Not great.
Smith has now posted a .878 save percentage and stopped -18.07 goals above average in 21 appearances dating back to February 1st of last season. He ranks last among 62 eligible goaltenders (400+ minutes) in both categories during that time.
Tonight he'll face another stiff test vs a Toronto team that is tied for 1st in goals. Though they'll be without Auston Matthews, they still have plenty of skill players and they play at a very fast pace. Smith will no doubt see plenty of rubber so he'll need to be a lot better if the Flames are going to snap this three-game losing streak.
2. A good spot for the top line Though Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm have posted solid GF/60 numbers, they haven't actually generated a ton of shots and chances. Tonight could be a good opportunity to change that.
Morgan Rielly and Ron Hainsey (yikes) generally match up against opposing team's top players and, well, they give up quite a bit defensively. This season they're allowing ~63 shot attempts and ~31 chances per 60 minutes at 5v5. Those are noticeably bigger numbers than what Calgary's top line has mustered up offensively (~54 shot attempts and 26 chances per 60).
3. Discipline is key Fresh off a date with a Capitals team that leads the league in power play goals/60, the Flames get *checks notes* the 2nd place team in power play goals/60. Matthews' absence will hurt but, again, the Leafs still have a lot of firepower on their roster and PP coach Jim Hiller knows how to make the most of what he has. If you recall, it was the Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk unit that was so prolific a year ago. The Flames really need to stay out of the box in this one.
4. Long overdue It feels like Mikael Backlund is one of the better players on the ice most nights and yet he rarely gets rewarded. He has 33 chances on the year, 16 of which are considered high-danger, and one goal to show for it. One. Among 55 players with *more* than 30 chances, Backlund has the lowest goal output. Much like I've been saying with James Neal, something has to given sooner or later. He's generating too many good looks not to score.
5. Early chemistry Noah Hanifin has struggled this season with almost every partner he's had. The lone exception is Travis Hamonic. In ~44 minutes with that duo on the ice, the Flames have out-attempted opponents 62-31 (66.67 CF%) and out-chanced them 40-13 (75.47 SCF%). If they can continue to play well, it'll go a long way towards stabilizing a Flames defense that has been a complete mess at times.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - James Neal Garnet Hathaway - Derek Ryan - Dillon Dube
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Toronto (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Patrick Marleau - Nazem Kadri - Mitch Marner Zach Hyman - John Tavares - Kasperi Kapanen Andreas Johnsson - Par Lindholm - Connor Brown Tyler Ennis - Frederik Gauthier - Josh Leivo
Morgan Reilly - Ron Hainsey Jake Gardiner - Nikita Zaitsev Martin Marincin - Igor Ozhiganov
Frederik Andersen
Puck drop is just after 7:00 eastern and can be seen on SN, TVAS, and NHL Network (U.S.).
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.