Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Pittsburgh Penguins:
1. More high-event hockey If you're into scoring chances and goals – who isn't? – this is the game for you. The Penguins have as much firepower as any team in the league and are an absolute train wreck defensively. It's no secret the Flames have struggled mightily without the puck thus far. Somehow the Penguins have been even worse. At 5v5, they're giving up 2.97 expected goals against, good for 31st. The Flames, meanwhile, rank 27th giving up 2.84 xGA/60.
Both teams are prone to defensive breakdowns and have plenty of high-end talent to take advantage of the opportunities that come as a result. Expect some fireworks in this one.
2. James Neal People have been dumping on Neal for a lack of production thus far, which is fair given his salary, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
He leads all Flames with 17 scoring chances over his last five games. He's getting a lot of shots off in dangerous areas – they just aren't going right now. That will change sooner than later.
I can't think of a better situation for the tables to turn than tonight against a former team that is having severe defensive issues.
3. Noah Hanifin's struggles Noah Hanifin has shown flashes but his on-ice results this season leave a lot to be desired. He has a 45.8 Corsi For% and 43.45 Scoring Chance For% on the year. Those numbers are bad and they're somehow even worse sans Rasmus Andersson.
In ~50 minutes without Andersson, Hanifin owns a 38.5 CF% and 35.8 SCF%. The Flames have been getting absolutely crushed with Hanifin on the ice and tonight he'll skate a good dose of his shifts against either Evgeni Malkin or Sidney Crosby (my guess is more so against the former). He could get exposed.
4. Discipline is key Since the beginning of 2017-18, the Penguins rank 4th in the NHL with 72 power play goals. On a goals per minute basis they are even higher slotting behind only the Maple Leafs. The Pens are lethal on the man advantage so the Flames can't afford to parade to the box if they want to have a shot in this one, especially because Pittsburgh is very disciplined (no team has taken fewer penalties). It's difficult to win the special teams battle against an elite PP team that doesn't take many penalties of their own.
5. A bounce-back effort from Mike Smith The Flames have been very leaky defensively of late and this is not exactly a Get Right spot against a Penguins team loaded with offensive stars. If they're going to have a chance, they need a quality showing from Smith. It's as simple as that.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - James Neal Garnet Hathaway - Dillon Dube - Austin Czarnik
Mark Giordano - Rasmus Andersson Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic T.J. Brodie - Michael Stone
Mike Smith
Pittsburgh (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Jake Guentzel - Sidney Crosby - Bryan Rust Carl Hagelin - Evgeni Malkin - Phil Kessel Dominik Simon - Derick Brassard - Patric Hornqvist Riley Sheahan - Matt Cullen - Daniel Sprong
Brian Dumolin - Kris Letang Jack Johnson - Juuso Riikola Olli Maatta - Jamie Oleksiak
Matt Murray
Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and ATTSN-PT.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
Recent posts: Five observations from another poor defensive effort