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The Toronto Maple Leafs embark on their first round series against the Washington Capitals on Thursday as the decided underdog.
The Leafs are short on experience, have a defensive corps weakened by injury and are not as deep as the two-time President’s Trophy winners, but do have what boxing aficionados refer to as a puncher’s chance if a number of things fall into place.
The Pucker Factor – That is the term that Leafs coach Mike Babcock used on Monday to describe the pressure that Washington will be under as the heavy favorite in the series.
The Capitals will attempt early in games (especially on home ice) to intimidate some of the Toronto rookies and whip up their crowd into a frenzy with heavy forechecking and physicality, as Alex Ovechkin did last week in the opening minutes of last Tuesday’s 4-1 win in Toronto by checking Nikita Zaitsev along the boards.
Ovechkin did the same thing in Washington’s season finale against another potential first round opponent and knocked Boston rookie Brandon Carlo out of the Bruins lineup with a concussion.
If the Leafs can weather that early storm without falling behind, the pressure will shift to Washington, with their long history of playoff disappointment in the Ovechkin era.
The Great Dane - Frederik Andersen has at times carried the Maple Leafs this season and any scenario of Toronto extending or potentially winning the series has to include him playing at the top of his game.
Not just playing good, but playing nearly superhuman as he did in Buffalo in early November. Without Nikita Zaitsev to start the series, Andersen will have to freeze the puck as much as possible to keep the Caps from building momentum and allow Babcock to manage his short-handed blueline.
The Rat Factor - Babcock has endeavored to match Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov against the opposition’s top line throughout the season. Never has that been more important than against Washington.
The pair likely will not be able to keep Ovechkin and Niklas Backstrom off the score sheet, but they must get the Caps top tandem off of their game by being at their disturbing best.
Kadri has the skating ability to stick with Backstrom and be an irritant, while Komarov must annoy Ovechkin to the point of drawing the big winger into undisciplined penalties.
Very ‘Special’ Teams - Toronto ended the season with the second ranked power play and 10th ranked penalty killing in the NHL.
For them to have any kind of chance, the Leafs PP will need to be lethal. If they have success, the Caps will have to tone down their attempt to physically manhandle Toronto for fear of giving them more scoring chances with the man advantage.
With Zaitsev out, Matt Hunwick will likely see top pairing ice time with Morgan Rielly. Rielly will probably replace Zaitsev on the second power play unit and Martin Marincin will be take over Hunwick’s penalty killing responsibility alongside Roman Polak.
Polak makes any player who parks in front of Andersen pay a price, but Marincin has been passive and can be coaxed out of position. If Washington is allowed a free path to the net, they can negate any success that Toronto has on their power play.
The Capitals have a limited window with TJ Oshie, Karl Alzner and Justin Williams heading to unrestricted free agency and adding Kevin Shattenkirk at the trade deadline to an already deep blueline means it will be tough for the speedy Leafs to get many scoring chances on Braden Holtby. Toronto has surprised everyone with their ability to make the post-season after finishing dead last and it is not impossible that they could continue shocking the world by eliminating Washington.
It is just highly improbable.
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Listen to myself and former Leafs assistant General Manager Bill Watters discuss the Leafs season and their first round series against the Washington Capitals:
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