Today is day 1 of the NHL regular season, and a long, tough summer has finally really come to an end.
The Senators don't get underway until tomorrow night when they host Washington, but today I will make a list of some things that might need to happen in order for the Senators to make the playoffs.
There isn't much margin for error for the Senators, even in the relatively weak Atlantic Division, and I would put them at even money to make the playoffs. My full prediction of the Atlantic Division will be in the Hockeybuzz Hotstove tomorrow, so I won't spoil it here, but they should be in a battle with 2 or 3 teams for the 3rd guaranteed playoff spot.
For that to happen, (most of) the following must occur:
1. Erik Karlsson plays 75 games - The captain drives the play in both ends of the ice, and there is no replacing him. He will not likely play Thursday, and is probably doubtful for Saturday, but he is getting close. Shot blocking has become a part of his game, and that is playing with fire as that increases the likelihood of his missing time with an injury from a blocked shot. In my opinion Karlsson is the most important player in the league to his team, and if he misses more than 7 or 8 games over the course of the season, it will be a struggle. The Senators have a lot of interchangable pieces on the blue line, with 8 or 9 capable NHL defenders, but there is only 1 Karlsson.
2. Someone needs to get to 30 - Whether it is Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris or Bobby Ryan (or maybe 2 of the above), having a dominant goal-scorer also likely means an improved power play. Hoffman and Stone both have had the capability, but each has gone through tough extended droughts that have affected final numbers.
3. Continue to cut down the shots against - Guy Boucher's system took some time to take hold, but we saw how effective it can be when everyone buys in. The key is cutting down the shots, which they started to last season (from a league worst 32.8 in 2015-16 to a middle of the pack 30.1 last season). Fewer shots usually means fewer goals against, regardless of who is in the net.
4. Health of the top 6 F - the same could be said of a lot of teams, but the Senators are walking a fine line in the top half of their forward group. The top 6 of Hoffman - Turris - Smith -Stone - Brassard - Ryan should be intact to start the season, and if any of them miss significant time there isn't the depth to replace them. If any two are out at the same time it would be devastating.
5. Handle the Schedule - For the first time in a few years, a team will have to deal with a trip overseas in the middle of the season. The Swedish series with the Colorado Avalanche will be interesting, but it will also be disruptive to the routine that most NHL players adhere to. Then not too long after that they are hosting their first outdoor game. Both are bigger than just hockey events that can take some of the focus away from other normal games.