Expectations are a funny thing. Two years ago everyone seemed to have the Jackets pegged as a breakout team and expectations were sky high, they promptly had the worst start in franchise history and ended up with the third overall pick in the draft. Last season expectations were tempered as many expected the Jackets to be a middle of the pack team. They of course went out and had their best season in franchise history.
These seasons really show the two extremes when making projections. Everything went wrong in 2015-16 and everything went right in 2016-17. Looking ahead what should we expect from the Blue Jackets for the 2017-18 season?
This time of year everyone is making predictions, personally I like the mathematical models as they are not biased and give a nice range of outcomes. Looking at expectations from last year not one of the models had the Jackets finishing with over 100 points. They had the Jackets around 87-88 points with an upper boundary of 95-96. They didn’t hit the point totals dead on but they did suggest that if everything broke right for the Jackets they would be a playoff team.
The first model is from Micah Blake McCurdy.
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— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) September 25, 2017
2017-2018 HockeyViz Season Preview: https://t.co/T3WFklFxQ3
(with contributions from @HockeywthHannah) pic.twitter.com/XuzgNXWWzj
Micah has the Blue Jackets as the third best team in the Eastern Conference behind Pittsburgh and Washington. His model gives them on average 93.1 points, with a standard deviation of 8.5. Based on this model the Jackets are most likely to finish between 84.6-101.6 points. The Metro is going to be the toughest division this year, Micah has the playoff cut-off in the Metro at 92.3 points, the highest of the four division, edging out the 89.7 cut-off in the Atlantic. Despite that his model gives the Jackets a 61% chance of making the playoffs.
Next up we have Dom Luszczyszyn and his model based off of Game Score.
Blue Jackets Season Preview: Will likely take a step back after a magical season, but still a good team on the rise. https://t.co/OJDtqUAZNM pic.twitter.com/xPEiFtdkBl
— dom 🛩 (@domluszczyszyn) September 22, 2017
Dom’s model projects the Jackets for 95.3 points with an upper limit of 103.3 and a lower limit of 87.3. Similar to Micah’s above. Both models view this as a strong team that if everything goes well could be one of the best teams in the league and if things go poorly this is a bubble team at best. The key to the Jackets season once again is going to be the play of Sergei Bobrovsky. If he struggles the team is going to struggle. There is enough talent on this team that they don’t need a Vezina type season from Bobrovksy to make the playoffs. He is plays to his career averages this team will be fine.
Overall Dom’s model gives the same 61% playoff chance as Micah’s model.
Finally we have Emmanuel Perry’s model.
2017-2018 projections! *ducks* pic.twitter.com/92f9UEdDx4
— manny (@MannyElk) September 25, 2017
Manny’s model is the most optimistic of all three. He has the Jackets as the fourth best team in the East and sixth in the league. He gives them a median point total of 102, and looking at the graph he posted you can see there is a wide range of outcomes for each team. That just further shows the unpredictably of hockey and why the Stanley Cup isn’t handed out in October. A injury or a slow start can derail a season before it even gets going.
Last season the Jackets had no expectations and were a big surprise story of the season. Now they have expectations and teams will be ready for them. They lost some good players in the off-season but added some talented young ones into the mix. If some players like a Seth Jones and Zach Werenski take a step forward this is going to be a team that will be contending for a lot more than just a first round appearance.
You can follow me on Twitter @PaulBerthelot