Last night 4-3 +.56 Units YTD 153-130-3 +31.28 Units
Only 6 games on this Easter Sunday but a few games have major playoff implications. Looking back at last night, the Wild swept the 2 game series in Vegas, they are for real folks! Plus it was their 4th game in 6 nights on the road, talk about a character win. Vegas won the first 2 games of the year against the Wild and now Minnesota has won the last 4 against Vegas and Vegas has now lost 3 in a row, all at home too! Don’t look now but the Wild are 2 points behind Vegas for 2nd in the West Division.
The Flames can’t keep losing at this point in the season and they get the Leafs at home. So much for the coaching change, the Flames have lost 6 of their last 7 games! Flames +132 are worth a shot on the ML tonight. AZ needs to keep winning to stay with the Blues for the 4th spot in the West Division. Jackets at Panthers, CLB can’t lose ground for 4th in the Central Division while Florida tries to keep pace with TB and Carolina for 1st place in the division.
**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Its 7-5 to date.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 17-6 over the last 2 plus weeks of tracking it! Hitting at 74% rate! As well, the under is a nice 14-8-1 in these spots!
Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 67-38. Hitting at 58% success rate. NJ and Carolina fit the system today.
Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 30-21-2 when teams play on the road back to back nights. SJ/LA fit the system tonight. Wings/TB, CLB/Florida and Dallas/Carolina fit the system today.
Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 91-65 in that situation. CLB fits the system today.
Quick stat updates - First period totals going over were 6-5 last night and are 264-309 on the season. Road teams were 4-7 last night and are 265-301 on the season. Game totals going over the total were 3-8 last night and are 261-285-17 on the season.
Gamenotes for today/tonight –
Wings/TB – Noon – TB has won 4 of 5 head to head this season. Wings have had 1 over the total in their last 10 games. They play a ton of tight defensive hockey on the road. Play Scenario #3 today.
Caps/NJ – 3PM – Rematch from a great game in OT on Friday night. NJ has played 8 one goal games in their last 10! Caps have won all 7 games this season head to head. Play Scenario #2 today.
CLB/Florida – 5PM – Panthers have won 4 of 5 meetings this season and 4 of 5 have gone over the total this year. Play Scenario #3 & #4.
Dallas/Carolina – Dallas finally beat Carolina for the first time this season last night. Canes have won 4 of 5 head to head and look for a rebound by Carolina today, plus Dallas is logging some serious games in a short time frame over the last month plus. Play Scenario #2 & #3.
Leafs/Flames – Leafs have won 4 of 6 games in the series and 4 of 6 have gone under the total. Very tempted to play the Flames a dog at home as they get the match ups they want at +132 on the ML.
Yotes/Ducks – AZ needs every point it can get battling for the final playoff in the West Division. Yotes have won 5 of 7 in the season series. Not playing the Ducks today in Scenario #2 angle.
System plays for 1 Unit each today unless specified –
NJ – ML(+152) Carolina – ML(-164)(2 Units) CLB – ML(+140) Detroit/TB u5.5(even) CLB/Florida u5.5(+102) Dallas/Carolina u5.5(-120)
Good luck tonight!
Puckpix