This year’s National Hockey League All-Star Game featured some of the most boring, slow-paced hockey I’ve ever seen. The idea of a three-on-three tournament with a cash prize available was supposed to spawn more player investment, but Saturday’s games displayed anything but. Not even a five-point tournament performance from Anthony Duclair was enough to keep things interesting. It was bad.
While Saturday’s event left a lot to be desired, it was nice to see that Duclair does remember how to contribute offensively. Goalless in his last ten games with the Senators, the pending restricted free agent has slowed down immensely since his scorching start to the season. With the trade deadline on the horizon, I think a lot of Senators fans are likely wondering what’s gone wrong, and whether it might make sense to cash out on that aforementioned hot start.
It’s not as though Duclair’s goal scoring is all that has disappeared from his game either. The eye test alone has suggested to even the most casual observer that he isn’t doing much to help the team’s cause on any front right now, and the numbers bear that out:
A comparison of Anthony Duclair's on-ice results during and before his current 10-game goalless streak:
— Michael Stuart (@hockeybuzzstu) January 26, 2020
*data from @NatStatTrick pic.twitter.com/VjurIAFdyc
Determining the exact cause of the player’s struggles with absolute certainty is something that is nearly impossible to do from the comfort of my couch at home, but oftentimes Occam’s razor can help a blogger play detective. What’s the simplest explanation for Duclair’s fall? Mike Johnson had a simple yet convincing observation/thought on the TSN broadcast earlier this month: He isn’t throwing the puck on net with as much regularity as he was earlier in the year.
It’s a simple-sounding explanation, but one that becomes increasingly persuasive when considered with the added context of Duclair’s individual data:
.@mike_p_johnson had a good thought on the TSN broadcast earlier this month: Duclair isn't throwing the puck on net nearly as much as he was earlier this season. The data seems to support that theory:
— Michael Stuart (@hockeybuzzstu) January 26, 2020
*data from @NatStatTrick pic.twitter.com/FDSMk7mjuR
So, the question becomes whether this new and unimproved Duclair is what Senators fans should expect for the rest of the season and beyond. Was the success earlier this season a complete mirage? Has he regressed back to his career norms? The truth appears to lie somewhere in the middle.
The odds that Duclair will be a 45-goal man in the National Hockey League are slim, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t be (and isn’t) a very effective player. Even if you take his pre-2019/20 numbers as the norm, he isn’t as bad as this slump suggests:
Is there reason for optimism? I think so. Even if you think that he was unsustainably hot earlier this season, his career numbers pre-2019/20 suggest that he's more effective that he's been in this 10-game slump. And that's without consideration of development this year. pic.twitter.com/YpfmxbDfSG
— Michael Stuart (@hockeybuzzstu) January 26, 2020
The bottom line: Duclair’s slump has been disappointing, but the odds of this being the new norm don’t appear to be all that high. This is still a player that is likely worth keeping beyond the deadline, so long as the price is right.
As always, thanks for reading.