Barring something catastrophic, the Lightning will make the playoffs. Therefore, the rest of the NHL regular season should be viewed by the franchise as an extended thought experiment. Along with staying healthy, the objective is to keep tinkering.
Coach Jon Cooper has breathing room to try different lineups and looks; he will get to witness how this year’s iteration of his team responds to different situations and matchups. Cooper is a smart guy. He knows that if bad habits or sloppy play are ignored, it can metastasize in the postseason. See the Washington Capitals from the last few seasons as an example.
The Lightning were outplayed by the Canadiens last night losing 2-1 in a shootout. Montreal had more shot attempts, and manufactured 16 High-Danger Chances to the Lightning’s nine. A very talented goaltender like Andrei Vasilevskiy can conceal a team’s ugly blemishes – he can shield and protect his skaters when their play is unsavory, like it was yesterday.
The Lightning have the best record in the NHL and nearly yanked out two points, so this is high-degree nitpicking. But Tampa Bay’s transition defense was unsatisfactory, again. Their positioning was unacceptable, and there were the turnovers. The Canadiens produced more opportunities off the rush than the Lightning, capitalizing on Tampa Bay’s bad reads and reckless passes.
Tampa Bay’s offense purrs when their defensemen are hyper-active. So when Victor Hedman or Anton Stralman creep to the weak side, that is a calculated risk, one afforded because of these defensemen’s recovery ability and the sterling goaltending by Vasilevskiy. But last night, there were too many plays where Tampa Bay got caught four deep and the Canadiens generated an odd-man rush. And this did not always come at the heels of puck movement in the offensive zone.
Brendan Gallagher ended up whipping his shot straight into Vasilevskiy’s crest, but what precipitated the shot from the slot was three Lightning forwards hovering around Stralman, who was in the middle of a mid-ice scrum and trying to kick the puck forward. Somehow, despite the cluster of Lightning players, Montreal gained control of the puck, passed it to Gallagher, and Mikhail Sergachev had to race over to try to close on him to prevent a breakaway.
One game does not necessitate reinventing the wheel, but against teams that are speedy like Montreal, when the transition offense is modulated and the forecheck is merely adequate, the pairing of Dan Girardi and Braydon Coburn does raise concerns. Girardi, who is as lead-footed as they come, failed on multiple pinches, which led to Montreal charging the other way with the puck, speed, and numbers. The offensive ethos seems to be that all Lightning defensemen should feel empowered, but if that is the case a Lightning forward should retreat a little more as a hedge if the Girardi-Coburn pairing are on the ice. Girardi and Hedman are not equals in their recovery speed. Frankly, Girardi, Coburn, and Jake Dotchin are all a little terrifying in a one-goal game come playoff time. (Sergachev’s turnover led to the Canadiens’ goal, but his offensive upside is so high it overwhelms the mistakes.)
It was an uneven offensive night for the Lightning, although it improved after an uninspired first frame. Still, for much of the game, Tampa Bay’s forwards were enveloped by a suffocating Canadiens transition defense, and struggled to get separation or find shooting lanes in the slot. (The Canadiens closed well on the Lightning and blocked shots well in the home-plate area.)
The only goal the Lightning did score came on a 4-on-4. In the sequence that led to the goal, Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov finally found some space in the offensive zone, and Kucherov buried a shot after curling off the right circle. But even with both teams down a man, it was positioning and alacrity that produced the goal.
There were two misfires on passes that required a Lightning skater to win the race to the puck; there was also a mishandle by Kucherov that was rescued by Dotchin. An effective cycle can be messy, but it must be imbued with energy. The Lightning were not always in the right position or the faster team, but when they are, it produces positive results.