Sabres fans have seen this movie before.
The year is 2015 and tank commander Tim Murray is overseeing his second campaign with the goal of selecting first overall in the coming draft. Everything is going swimmingly as the team is truly horrible – as anticipated – with the offense producing poorly and the defense unable to stifle opportunities. Still, there is one man who can stand between Murray and the potential to pick first overall: Michal Neuvirth.
Neuvirth was having a terrific season for the Sabres since being acquired from the Capitals the year prior. He posted a stellar .918 save percentage over 27 games and there was the potential that he could spoil the whole tank thing if he kept winning, so Murray had to trade him away rather than keep him for the duration of the year and re-sign him.
Fast forward six years and the Sabres are in a similar situation: losing team, some bad performances, management wants a high draft pick and there’s a pesky goaltender named Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen who may be playing too well to continue as a Sabre through the end of the season. His start to the season was rough with a sub-par training camp and preseason, followed by a couple of rough outings to begin the AHL campaign, but since then, he’s mostly been on an upward trajectory.
UPL has now seen game action in four contests in a row while sporting a superb .939 save percentage and a sub-2 GAA. He’s played so well that head coach Don Granato has elected to play him in every game since GM Kevyn Adams brought UPL up from Rochester. Unfortunately for Granato’s squad, it’s very possible that UPL will be sent back down to the farm in short order.
Goalie Dustin Tokarski is nearing a comeback from a stint on the Covid-19 protocol list where he’s been since December 6th. Malcolm Subban is healthy again after suffering an injury during his Sabres debut on December 4th. That means the Sabres will have to make a decision on whom to demote, unless they opt to carry three goalies, which seems unlikely.
The obvious choice for a demotion during normal circumstances (a team actively trying to win) would be Malcolm Subban. Yes, he only appeared in 85% of one game, but that game went about as badly as it could have with 6 goals against in 50 minutes. Dustin Tokarski has earned the right to remain a Sabre with his 4-5-3 record this season, even if his .903 save percentage is a tad underwhelming. Tokarski tends to make timely saves and has generally been a serviceable, dependable veteran option. He’s also faced plenty of adversity in his career, positioning him nicely to serve as a veteran leader to guide to guide UPL through the ups-and-downs of an NHL season.
What will likely happen, though, is that the Sabres will demote UPL in the name of further development while citing his age and lack of experience as reasons to send him back to Rochester. While it’s certainly true that UPL is young and inexperienced, it’s also true that he is currently providing the best goaltending on this roster by quite a large margin. This is indisputable fact. According to evolving-hockey.com, UPL currently has a positive goals-above-replacement value of 3.4, making him the only Sabre on the team with a positive value in that stat column. Even Craig Anderson, who was playing well before being injured, could not manage that.
Management is in a bit of a pickle here. They have a goalie playing really well on a team that’s not supposed to do well this season.
The idea behind demoting UPL at this point is that he needs further development before he can be counted on to contribute to the big club. That makes sense on a certain level. He’s only played 55 games between the AHL and NHL. He does need to play more. However, since he’s playing well at the NHL level currently, why not get some more of that development in with the big club? Positionally and athletically, the 22-year-old Finnish goaltender has looked stout between the pipes with the Sabres this year. He doesn’t look physically uncomfortable or lost in the crease. Take away his lack of experience and he looks like a goalie who is ready to be given a real shot.
Martin Biron played 41 games in the NHL as a 22-year-old.
The idea that they would need to send him down to get a longer look at Malcolm Subban is also nonsensical. We know what Subban is: he’s a replacement-level backup who can play in a pinch. He will almost certainly not fit into the Sabres’ goaltending situation beyond this season, and he will definitely not be with the big club past next season.
That’s not to say that he has to stay with the Sabres for the rest of the season. If he starts to show signs of wear and tear, or he loses his way after a couple of weeks while splitting starts with Dustin Tokarski, then the team can simply re-assign him to Rochester and bring back Malcolm Subban. This doesn’t have to be a permanent move. It’s just that making the call to demote him right now – this week – while he’s playing well is a total tank move that is devoid of any merit-based decision making.
It would also send a bad message to the rest of the locker room. They know that UPL gives them the best chance to win on any given night, and to management’s credit, they did demote Aaron Dell upon Subban’s return rather than sending UPL down immediately. Still, it would be a gut punch to the team to have the GM rip the goaltending rug out from under them at this point. Management risks having the squad totally pack it in if Tokarski and Subban fall apart night after night. It’s also clear that Don Granato will use UPL as long as he’s given UPL based upon the goaltender’s heavy usage since coming aboard earlier this month.
It’s decision time for management. Will they give the team the best chance to win and give the fans the most entertaining product possible, or is it tank time for real? We shall see in short order.