Flying into Calgary last night, the New York Islanders arrived in a bit of a sticky situation.
With a 4-2 loss to the Oilers the evening prior, the club has now gone 1-2-0 on their week-long Pacific Division road trip. Tonight they finish out both an Alberta back-to-back as well as the road trip itself with a game against a Calgary team that has been playing much better of late — but is ultimately starved for wins.
To add to this, the Flames haven’t had a game scheduled since January 3. In theory, the rested team has the advantage in this situation, but you could make a case that the Islanders may start the game at the same tempo they finished last night on. More on that later.
Interestingly enough, the Flames have their best points percentage when they have one full day off between games. They’re 11-7-6 in those situations, or .583.
With two full days, they’re 7-4-3, or .571.
With three full days? 0-2-0. Big goose egg.
How about the Islanders on back-to-backs? Not good news for Flames fans. They’re 5-2-0 when they haven’t had a day off between games.
There has to be some encouraging record to pull up here. Ok, how about something like: the Islanders are 1-2-0 when finishing out road trips comprised of three or more games?
More to that, the Islanders looked tired last night against Edmonton. The underlying stats were brutally slanted against them. Edmonton had 100% of the high danger chances. 14-0 at even strength. Shot attempts were 25-4 by the end of the first period.
We could revel in the fact that Jack Campbell allowed two goals against in a game featuring zero high-danger opportunities against him, but let’s stay focused.
This is all to say that the Isles are a winning team (22-16-2), they’re fresh off a beatdown from a middle of the road Oilers team, and face the possible outcome of going 1-3-0 on a mid-season road trip.
What was that metaphor about a cornered animal?
Calgary Projected Lineup Yesterday’s practice lines. Courtesy of Pat Steinberg. @Fan960Steinberg
Dube-Lindholm-Toffoli Lucic-Kadri-Huberdeau Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman Ruzicka-Zohorna-Lewis Hanifin-Andersson Weegar-Tanev Zadorov-Stone Mackey
Markstrom Vladar
Starting Strong The Islanders have a bit of a troubling trend going on. Their first periods are getting worse as their road trip drags on.
Against Seattle, they were outshot 11-6 and out-attempted 19-15 at even strength in the first stanza. Not so bad, but could be better.
The Canucks had roughly 70% of the 5v5 shot attempts after 20.
In Edmonton it got ugly. 25-4 in 5v5 shot attempts in the first period. 10-0 in high-danger opportunities. 14-0 if you count special teams.
Starting the game at full speed will be of the utmost importance tonight. If Calgary matches the Islanders’ tempo, we’re in for some sloppy hockey.
It’s Getting Old While the team has played better hockey since his promotion, you have to wonder when Milan Lucic will be shuffled off of the second line.
To their credit, the line has outscored the opposition 6-3 since December 20, 2022. The actual results are all that matters. Still, the line has a 34% rate in terms of high-danger chances for and against. The goal differential is likely going to look worse with more time.
Islanders Projected Lineup Based on last night’s group.
Bailey – Barzal – Cizikas Lee – Nelson – Fasching Parise – Pageau – Beauvillier Martin – Raty – Clutterbuck
Romanov – Dobson Aho – Pulock Wotherspoon – Mayfield
Varlamov Sorokin
The Hot Hand Some may remember when these two teams last met. Some may have chosen to forget. Game five of an early November seven-game losing streak, the Isles stormed back from a 3-1 deficit to take the game in overtime. Islanders leading scorer, Matt Barzal, led the way. The 25-year-old from Coquitlam, BC had three assists.
The former Seattle Thunderbird has scored at least one goal in each of his last five games. Expect the Flames to have some sort of game plan for the speedy center.
Game time is 7:07 pm MST. Catch the broadcast on Sportsnet West or MSGSN.
Trevor Neufeld
@Trevor_Neufeld
Stats via naturalstattrick.com and nhl.com.