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UPDATE - Tyler Bozak skated at the MasterCard Centre on Tuesday, which is a positive indicator that the veteran center will play against Calgary on Wednesday.
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The summer of 2018 is expected to present a challenge for the management of the Toronto Maple Leafs, with three key veterans heading for unrestricted free agency and three young core players eligible to sign new deals. GM Lou Lamoriello’s negotiating skills will likely be put to the test, but he and other GM’s may be the beneficiary of more room to work with.
The NHL Board of Governors meet in Florida this week and according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, there is talk that the salary cap for the 2018-19 season could go up from the current amount of $75 Million to as much as $80 Million depending on the NHL Player’s Association and the percentage of luxury tax.
Based on the current cap, the Leafs will have slightly over $26 Million in available cap space next summer with the expiring contracts of UFA’s James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, Eric Fehr, Roman Polak and Dominic Moore, but good chunks of that cap space could be used to re-sign some of the free agents and also to extend youngsters William Nylander (RFA in 2018), Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews (eligible to sign extensions next July).
Young prospects on entry-level contracts (such as Kasperi Kapanen, Carl Grundstrom and Travis Dermott) will likely step up and take NHL roster spots and allow Lamoriello to spend in other areas, but a potential increase of $5 Million to the payroll could be the difference between Toronto retaining or losing a player they’d like to keep.
Both Bozak ($4.2 Million) and Komarov ($2.95 Million) are useful veterans over the age of 30 who could be back if they are willing to take shorter term for less money, but van Riemsdyk is well positioned to hit in big in free agency next summer. The 28-year-old winger currently is tied for the club lead with 13 goals and is a one of the few players that Toronto has a presence in front of the net.
Based on comparables, van Riemsdyk will be looking to eclipse the long-term deals signed by Kyle Okposo in Buffalo (7 years, $42 Million) in 2016 or that Dallas signed Alex Radulov (five years, $31,25 Million) to last summer.
With the young core, it is highly probable that the Leafs will follow the blueprint of what Edmonton did with Connor McDavid and extend Matthews for a max eight-year contract as soon as he becomes eligible on July 1, but they could choose to wait with Marner until his ELC expires in 2019 (as they are doing with Nylander currently).
The 21-year-old winger does not have much leverage coming off his rookie contract other than holding out, as his friend David Pastrnak did with Boston before the season.
If Nylander matches his rookie totals, it is likely that he will be looking for something in the $6 Million range on a new deal, but based Lamoriello’s hard negotiating reputation and his ability to get players to take less (Morgan Rielly - $5 Million AAV for 6 years, Nazem Kadri - $4.5 Million for 6 years, Nikita Zaitsev - $4.5 Million for 7 years, Connor Brown - $2.1 Million for 3 years) it is possible that Toronto could get Nylander signed for less or opt for a bridge deal with the 2014 eighth overall pick.
The Leafs have four years until Nylander qualifies for unrestricted free agency and if they opt to sign him for two or three years, it would likely result in a cap hit of $4 to $4.5 Million per season, which gives him a significant pay increase but allows the Leafs to further evaluate what they have.
With Bozak on the shelf with an illness, Leafs head coach Mike Babcock shifted Nylander up the middle between van Riemsdyk and Marner at practice on Monday, but indications are that Babcock does not feel comfortable with him playing center on anything more than a short-term basis.
Many assumed that Nylander would be the replacement for Bozak up the middle when his contract expires, but their hesitancy to use him there may be a sign that he will continue to used as a winger and that may affect how willing Lamoriello is to give him a big-money deal.
If the preliminary indications are correct that the cap could go up to $80 Million, that could significantly improve the chances of van Riemsdyk getting close to what he’s looking for to stay in Toronto.
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