Nothing is happening in the hockey world right now and we have no idea how long that will remain the case.
I understand the regular season hasn’t been fully completed, however, there is no guarantee it will be. Maybe they’ll play a couple more games. Maybe they’ll simply jump to the playoffs as soon as it’s safe to do so.
I don’t know.
What I do know is that 70 games is enough time to judge what kind of season a player had, and if they failed or succeeded in living up to expectations.
With that in mind, I’ll be commenting on the season each member of the Flames had as well as their likely role and expectations moving forward.
Let’s start with Elias Lindholm, who also kicked things off for us a year ago.
Counting stats: 70 games played, 54 points (29 goals, 25 assists), 19:43 average time on ice
5v5 underlyings: 1.83 points/60, +.68 CF% Rel, -.70 GF% Rel, -.72 xGF% Rel, 99.4 PDO
2019-20 review: Lindholm had a *very* strange season. I predicted regression would come for him, citing shooting percentage as one of the reasons why. I expected last season’s 13.48 SH%, well above the 8.13% he shot over five years prior, would come down to earth and his goal outputs would dip as a result. That didn’t happen. While Lindholm’s overall production fell off, he actually scored more goals (and on a higher shooting percentage) this year than last year. On a team with players underperforming, and converting at low rates across the board, it’s Lindholm that continued to fill the net. Go figure.
All that said, my overall assessment wasn’t far off. I wrote that Lindholm would likely finish in the ~65 point range. He produced at a 63 point pace over 82 games, which is still found money for $4.85 million.
What’s a little disappointing is Lindholm’s on-ice metrics. The Flames were expected to score, and *did* score, a lesser share of the goals with Lindholm on the ice than without.
I’m not necessarily putting that on him – I think it speaks to the top line as a whole, which just couldn’t get going all season – but it’s generally not a good sign if your best players aren’t leading the charge at 5v5. That hasn’t happened, and it’s one of the reasons the Flames are a fringe-playoff team in a down year for the Western Conference.
Fun fact(s): Lindholm recorded more points on the power play than Alexander Ovechkin and Patrik Laine.
2020-21 outlook: Next season could be a lot different for Lindholm. Not in terms of opportunity – he’ll still play L1, PP1, etc., as he should – but *how* he is used.
I think there is a very real possibility the Flames make a big change or two this summer, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean Monahan is at the forefront of it.
If Monahan is moved, I could see Lindholm shifting to center Johnny Gaudreau on the top line full-time. The Flames likely wouldn’t get a center back, and if they do he’ll almost certainly have some flaws and be no more of a true 1C than Monahan. I think Lindholm is more balanced as a two-way player and could fill that role.
I’d probably still expect the same kind of production 25-30 goals, ~65 points, although it may come with more responsibility in his own zone.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com and hockey-reference.com Recent posts: