Follow me on twitter Follow @stlgoalie First, let me apologize for my short hiatus. Unfortunately, we had a few deaths in the family and a few other family matters to attend to over the last couple of weeks.
In checking the standings and looking at the box scores, as a Blues fan, it doesn’t appear I missed much that I would have wanted to see. During my absence the team went 1-4 and scored a whopping 6 goals. In their last 7 games, they have gone 2-5 and only scored 9 goals. It’s no coincidence that the 2-5 stretch started with the first game Jaden Schwartz missed. It’s just another example of how Schwartz may be the Blues MVP. Their record with him in the lineup and without him in the lineup are significantly different. With Schwartz expected out at least another month, it could be a very long January.
The recent slide has forced the Blues into a 3-way tie with Nashville and Winnipeg for the most points in the Central Division but the Blues have played 3 more games than Nashville and 1 more game than Winnipeg. It seems the only highlights I missed were a great performance by Carter Hutton (shutting out the Jets) and Tage Thompson with his first NHL goal.
Speaking of Thompson’s first goal, almost every single Blues player could learn from Thompson on that play. The pace and placement of his shot wasn’t anything special but the quickness of the release was perfect. As soon as he got the puck, the shot was gone. When you shoot that quickly after a change in the shot angle (because of the pass in this case), the shot doesn’t have to be great because the goalie will likely be out of position or moving which creates exponentially more holes to hit the net.
Think of it this way: assume whether or not a goal is scored is a multiple of 2 factors – shot quality and goalie positioning/coverage. Thompson shoots so quickly that his shot quality factor goes down but the goalie positing/coverage factor changes a lot more. Here is a numeric example: set shot (70%x15% =10.5% goal probability) vs quick shot (30%x40%=12% goal probability) illustrates that the quick shot is more effective. These are made up numbers but illustrate the point well. Watch Wayne Gretzky and Mairo Lemieux’s goals. They rarely blew a shot past a goalie. It was all about creating holes and hitting them.
Tonight the Blues will visit Vancouver to take on the Canucks. The Blues will be searching for their 1st win in the final game of the Blues current 4 game road trip. The Canucks are having problems of their own, only winning 1 of their last 8 games. Unlike the Blues, the Canucks problem has been goal prevention, giving up 41 goals in that 8 game span. In a way it will be the immovable object (Blues offense) against the unstoppable object (Vancouver defense). The game will be the 1st in Vancouver’s 4 game home stand.
The Canucks are 6-9-3 at home. The Canucks are 4th worst in goals scored per game even though they are 8th best on the power play. They are 7th worst in goals against per game even though their penalty kill is 8th best. Comparatively, the Blues are 24th on the power play and 14th on the penalty kill while being 14th in goals scored and 2nd in goals against.
For the Canucks, they are led by Brock Boeser who has 19 goals and 33 points in 33 games. The next closest players are the Sedin twins who have more than 20% less points. Michael Del Zotto leads their defense in points with 11. The Canucks are missing Brandon Sutter, Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi, and Chris Tanev who are all on injured reserve.
Boeser scored in his only game against the Blues. Historically, the Blues have done well keeping the Sedins off the score sheet. Henrik only has 43 points in 60 games while Daniel only has 41 in 59 games, both well below their career averages.
In net, former Blue Anders Nilsson has posted a 90.6% save percentage and a 3.39 goals against average so far this season while Jacob Markstrom has a worse save percentage at 90.4% but a better goals against average at 2.80. Both goalies have been poor against the Blues with Markstrom going 1-3 with an 86.5% save percentage and Nilsson going 0-1 with an 84.2% save percentage.
For the Blues, Jake Allen is 5-2 with a 2.74 goals against average versus the Canucks but only has an 89.1% save percentage. Carter Hutton on the other hand is 1-1 but has a 1.32 goals against average and a 95.5% save percentage.
Paul Stastny has enjoyed the most success against the Canucks with 41 points in 48 games. Vladimir Tarsaenko has 11 points in 16 games against the Canucks while Alexander Steen has 19 points in 28 games. It’s a great day for hockey.
Fellow Hockeybuzz bloggers Nashville Predator's Paul McCann, Winnipeg Jet's Peter Tessier and Minnesota Wild's Dan Wallace have generously agreed to a friendly charity wager. We were hoping to do the whole division but don't have it fully represented yet. The blogger whose team finishes the highest the standings at the end of the year gets to pick a charity to whom the others will donate in their name.