Follow me on twitter Follow @stlgoalie The first potential roster issue we discussed was who would man the other two point spots on the Blues power play units. You can read more about it here.
The second roster issue is a forward composition issue. Most fans have no trouble accepting that Vladimir Tarasenko is a 1st line winger. His metrics prove that out as he has ranked 14th in points per game and 10th in points per 60 minutes among forwards with at least 30 games played over the last two seasons. Tarasenko is clearly one of the best 1st line wingers in the league. Once you get past Tarasenko, do the Blues really have any 1st line forwards? I decided to look at the rankings of the Blues forwards over the last two seasons in points per game and points per 60 minutes against forwards with at least 30 games played.
Newcomer Brayden Schenn has the points per game and points per 60 minutes statistics to suggest he is an average 1st line player, ranking 57th and 43rd respectively. If you look at other data, namely his HERO chart:
When you look to returning veterans, Alexander Steen looks to be somewhere between a 1st line and 2nd line winger. He ranked 54th among forwards in points per game but only 105th in points per 60 minutes. His HERO chart has him behind a 1st line winger in 3 statistics and above in only one.
Based on the data, you might come to the conclusion that he is one of the lower performing 1st line players in the league or one of the best 2nd line players. It is important to note with Steen, that his point per game has been consistently declining since 2013-14 and last year was only 74% of the 2013-14 rate. His points per 60 minutes is also declining consistently with last year being 77% of what it was in 2013-14. If this production trend continues he would quickly become an average 2nd line winger and soon become a good 3rd line winger.
Up and coming Jaden Schwartz is another Blue looking to fill a 1st line role. Schwartz is 68th and 88th among forwards in points per game and points per 60 minutes. His HERO chart also is right on track with a 1st line winger. The data suggests he is a middle of the road 1st line player.
Paul Stastny seems much like Alex Steen in that his points per game ranking of 71st would suggest a 1st line player but his points per 60 minutes ranking of 114th suggests a 2nd line ranking. His HERO chart comparison against a 1st line center has him trailing the mean in three categories and only beating it in one. The data would again suggest he is one of the lower performing 1st line players or one of the best 2nd line players.
So in looking at the roster, you have the following: - Bona Fide 1st line players – Tarasenko and Schwartz - Borderline 1st/2nd line players – Steen, Schenn, and Stastny - Barely 3rd line players – Berglund (232nd in points per game and 273rd in points per 60 minutes); Vladimir Sobotka (his NHL points per game average has him as a bottom 3rd line player). - 4th line players – Broziak, Thorburn, and Upshall (assuming he signs) - Players without enough NHL games to assume they will fill any specific role – Barbashev, Jaskin, Paajarvi, Blais, Megan, Kostin, Sundqvist and Thompson I’m not saying the players can’t outperform these levels. They can. What I am saying is that we shouldn’t expect them to be something they haven’t historically been.
My opinion of the players is that Tarasenko and Schwartz are bona fide 1st liners. Steen and Stastny are very good 2nd line players. Berglund and Sobotka are ok but not great 3rd line players. I think it is fair to be concerned that the lineup will be able to generate enough scoring, especially in the playoffs with the forward group they have.
Speaking of lineups, here is today’s expected lineup for the afternoon tilt against Washington:
Forwards: Ivan Barbashev, Sammy Blais, Kyle Brodziak, Dmitrij Jaskin, Klim Kostin, Wade Megan, Magnus Paajarvi, Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Sobotka, Oskar Sundqvist, Tage Thompson, Chris Thorburn
Defense: Robert Bortuzzo, Vince Dunn, Joel Edmundson, Carl Gunnarsson, Colton Parayko, Nate Prosser, Jake Walman
Goalies: Jake Allen, Carter Hutton
It’s a great day for hockey.
Fellow Hockeybuzz bloggers Nashville Predator's Paul McCann, Winnipeg Jet's Peter Tessier and Minnesota Wild's Dan Wallace have generously agreed to a friendly charity wager. We were hoping to do the whole division but don't have it fully represented yet. The blogger whose team finishes the highest the standings at the end of the year gets to pick a charity to whom the others will donate in their name.