Factoring in the season-to-date, recent form and post deadline rosters, we share our thoughts on which team is best inside the Atlantic Division.
Todd Cordell
The Tampa Bay Lightning.
They started the season somewhat rocky but they certainly righted the ship. Nobody is really touching their current form.
Tampa Bay leads the league in wins (18) and points (37) over the last 25 games. No team has a better goal differential at 5v5 or across all game states. Meanwhile, Vegas is the only playoff side to best the Lightning in Expected Goals during that time.
They have elite talent up front, one of the best top-4 groupings in the league (when healthy), a high-end goaltender, and they recently added some more gritty, cost controlled, two-way players to try and get over the hump.
Whether it works or not remains to be seen but, top-to-bottom, I think they’re the best team in the Atlantic.
James Tanner The Atlantic Division features the NHL's three best teams. A lot of people will scoff at the inclusion of Toronto with Boston and Tampa, but the Leafs have the NHL's 5th best record since November 21st when they switched coaches.
Since then, they also score the most goals in the NHL, and have the NHL's best Powerplay.
This season, the Leafs have played almost every single game without at least one of Tavares, Marner, Rielly, Nylander or Andersen. IN addition they've had injuries to Dermott, Ceci, Muzzin, Johnsson, Mikheyev and Kerfoot........it's been ridiculous.
For most of the games of Sheldon Keefe's tenor, the Leafs have had 2 to 5 regular players missing from the lineup. They've also gotten terrible goaltending. Despite this, they are 5th in the NHL for over half a season's worth of games. It's just logical to assume that if they were somewhat healthy and got even league average goaltending, they'd be among the best teams in the NHL.
In fact, I read yesterday that if they had even league average goaltending they'd have eight extra points. SO even not accounting for injuries (just goaltending) they should be only a single point back of Tampa in the overall standings.
Toronto and Boston both have a 52% expected goals rating this season, while Tampa's is 54%. Factoring in Toronto's crazy injuries (they've played the last week or two with 50% of their blue-line on the IR), and it's fair to say they are even.
Keep in mind that 5v5 save percentage rankings are Boston 2nd, Tampa 9th, Toronto 27th.
Because the Leafs are so thoroughly outperforming their goaltending, because they're hanging tough with a decimated roster, and because Boston had to get lucky to beat them last year in the playoffs, and because they have the best player (Matthews) I say Toronto is (in reality) the Atlantic's best team (and the NHL’S best team).
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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