You always have to start off any column that breaks down the NHL playoffs with this caveat: untimely injuries and an opponent with a white-hot goaltender can derail any team’s Stanley Cup run, no matter how dominant they were in the regular-season. Those are the two factors that keep league GMs purchasing doomsday bunker stock of Just For Men anti-grey-hair juice.
With that out of the way, it’s important to note only four teams have won a Stanley Cup in the past eight seasons. Two of them – the L.A. Kings and Pittsburgh Penguins – have a pair of championships, while the Boston Bruins have one. Only one team has defied the odds and ended their year with a celebratory civic parade in three of those seasons, and the way things are shaking out in the 2016-17 campaign, there’s a better-than-decent chance that same club adds to their astonishing list of achievements this time around and claims their fourth Cup in eight years.
And for me, at least, all roads to the Cup go through Chicago.
Granted, the Blackhawks haven’t been tearing it up in the last little while – their 5-2-3 mark in their past 10 games pales in comparison to their Central Division rivals in St. Louis (7-1-2) and to the confident Edmonton Oilers (8-2-0). However, they’re guaranteed to finish with the best record in the Western Conference this year, and, depending on how Pittsburgh and Columbus wind up their three remaining games, the Hawks may finish only second to Washington for the NHL’s best record.
But my belief in the Hawks isn’t based on their record alone. It’s based on their balance, their experience, their depth, their pedigree. They’ve created somewhat of a pattern of late – win it all one season, lose early on in the following post-season – and their core of talent remains among the very best any franchise has to offer. No team has done a better job balancing the demands of the salary cap and remaining top-shelf contenders.
But let’s break those factors down a bit more, starting with Chicago’s balance, which is as intimidating as any individual who currently wears a Blackhawks jersey. Six of their players have at least 20 goals, and if rookie winger Ryan Hartman scores in one of their final two regular-season games, that number bumps up to seven. Their top two defensemen have combined for 90 points. Their road record (24-12-3) is the best in the West and second only to the New York Rangers (27-11-2). Both of their goaltenders (Corey Crawford and Scott Darling) have save percentages of at least .920, and Crawford will have played the fewest number of games (53 as of Thursday) out of any full season of his career, leaving him with a full tank for a deep playoff run. (Darling has been a terrific understudy, posting career bests in wins, save percentage and goals-against average in 32 games this year.)
That depth carries over into the rest of their lineup. They don’t have the most fearsome 1-2 punch at center, but captain Jonathan Toews and, once he returns from injury, Artem Anisimov can get the job done. On the wings, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Artemi Panarin, Richard Panik and Hartman have combined for 131 goals and 281 points. On the blueline, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Johnny Oduya, Brian Campbell and Trevor van Riemsdyk give head coach Joel Quenneville all kinds of flexibility and options as the post-season unfolds.
Then there’s their experience. It’s not quantifiable, of course, but there is something to be said for a group that understands how to ride the emotional roller coaster of the post-season without throwing up all over the roller coaster cars. Most of the Hawks’ core has been through the wringer – and been through the wringer as teammates – and that familiarity shouldn’t be shrugged off as a non-factor. When playoff games go into various stages of overtime, when teams fall behind early in series, you need the calming hand of players such as Toews, Keith and Hossa to keep things in perspective, and Chicago is fortunate to have them as competitive cornerstones.
In the first round, the Blackhawks could face the Blues – who eliminated them last year in seven games – or Nashville, whom they beat in the opening round of the 2015 post-season. But Chicago has winning records against both teams (3-2 against the Blues, 4-1 against the Preds) this year, and it’s safe to say both of them would much prefer a showdown with the Minnesota Wild.
It’s tough to blame them. Chicago put together a seven-game win streak in November, won 12 of 13 games from February through early March, and followed that up with six victories in seven games through late March. When this squad gets on a roll, they’re almost impossible to stop.
Sure, there’s a chance this could finally be the Capitals’ year. Or maybe the Ducks come on strong. Or perhaps the Blue Jackets, Wild or San Jose Sharks find the stars aligning for them and come away with four series wins. But if the more recent past is any indication, someone is going to have to knock off a focused, phenomenal Hawks team that has it all.
Good luck to any and all of their opponents in the attempt to do so. They’ll need it.