When and if the 2020 NHL Playoffs get underway, it is clear it will be unlike any playoff run before and while I don't believe there should be an asterisk next to this years' winner the door has been left open for an unlikely Cup champion.
Here are five reasons why that Champion will be the Edmonton Oilers.
1.) A Healthy And Well Rested Connor McDavid By now everyone should be aware of what Connor McDavid went thorough last summer, specifically how he was able to rehab a completely torn PCL. McDavid was able to return for the end of pre-season and was back in the lineup for opening night and even though the captain finished second in points in the league he did not at all times look like the Connor fans had gotten used to seeing. It's stunning to think that the McDavid we saw this season was not Connor playing at 100%.
Later in the season, McDavid sustained an unrelated quad injury and had to lose another couple weeks of hockey. The captain was playing hurt but like any elite player, he was going to press forward.
With the suspension of the season and the almost five month break, Connor has had ample time to heal, continue his post injury rehab and most importantly take part in his normal training routine. Connor McDavid still had an elite season this year while dealing with the maladies. It is bad news for the Hawks and any other team to be facing off against a fresh #97.
2.) A Dominant Draisaitl Line Which line put up the most points in the league from the end of December to the end of the season? Answer, the Draisaitl, RNH, and Yamamoto line. In total, these three players put up a total of 28 goals and 45 assists through that time period. In total this line played over 317 minutes together at 5 on 5 and absolutely dominated in terms of possession, scoring chances, and most importantly, actual goals. This line together put up 28 goals at 5 on 5 while only allowing 8 in return.
Coaches are going to have a conniption, trying to match against Connor McDavid, the most dominant forward while also trying to figure out how to contain the Oilers most dominant line in RNH, Draisaitl, and Yamamoto.
3.) Lack of Defensive Play In October this season, a total of 1195 goals were scored or on average 38.5 by team. In January a total of 999 goals were scored, or on average 32.0. The early parts of the season are sloppier affairs, where most teams are dealing with at least a couple rookies learning the NHL game and a whole team trying to implement the systems put in place by the coaching staff. The results typically lead to higher scoring games that are not as tight defensively.
Part of the Oilers success this season was due to Tippett getting full team buy in on his systems, but the Oilers as a whole usually prefer to play a run and gun style where their most dangerous forwards have room to wheel. Even though teams will have a training camp to chisel off some of the rust, games will feel like early season games with defensive lapses abound. Edmonton finished October this year with a 9-4-1 record, including winning the first five games of the season.
4.) Early Season Koskinen
Mikko Koskinen should irrefutably be the Oilers starter going into the post season. Koskinen had far superior numbers to Mike Smith, especially at 5 on 5. Near the end of the season both Koskinen and Smith came on strong but the big Russian still had the edge.
Again I am using October as a reference because I feel it is the closest thing to reflect what the pace of game will look like after a six or seven month break. Of all goalies who played at least 300 minutes (or at least 7 games) in the month of October, Koskinen finished with the 6th best SV% at 5 on 5 (0.934%) and allowed the second fewest goals. These numbers are extra impressive if you remember in the previous section I noted how many more goals overall are scored in October.
Mikko appears to play his best when he is fresh and we saw his play slip in the middle months of the season before retaking his starter position. A fresh Koskinen has the ability to be the hot netminder that has won so many series before.
5.) Chip on Their Shoulder
This is not necessarily an issue unique to the Oilers, but it is one worthy of note. Prior to the suspension, the Edmonton Oilers were firmly entrenched in second place in the Pacific Division. The Calgary Flames were 4 points behind with a game in hand but with only 11 games left in the season that is difficult ground to make up. They were also only three points shy of being tied for first with the Golden Knights. Draisaitl and McDavid were #1 and #2 in the league in scoring with the former being worthy of league MVP.
Then the pandemic happened and the league needed to find a way to create a playoff bracket to be fair to the teams with varying remaining games. The result ended with the Oilers, a team with an over 90% chance of making the playoffs being forced to face off against the Hawks; a team that was dead last in their own division by a wide margin with a less than 5% chance of being making the playoffs.
I'm not here to call out the league or to whine and say it's unfair but if I were a player on the Edmonton Oilers I would be rightly pissed off. Good. Let them use that.
Obviously every player, coach, and GM in the league reads my blogs but they also do read stuff written about them in other places too. Draisaitl has had to listen to people discuss how he is only good because of McDavid or that he isn't deserving of the Hart. Now people are discussing what an embarrassment it would be to lose against the Hawks.
There have been games where Leon and McDavid don't just play elite hockey, but are unequivocally the best players on the ice. McDavid and Draisaitl and the rest of the Oilers will want to prove that they are a true playoff contender and they can take any anger they feel and use it to beat up on a Hawks team that has no business being there.
Thanks for reading!