Since my last stats report at mid-season, the Golden Knights have slumped.
That is, if you consider a 13-8-3 record since January 11th a slump. That 99-point pace does pale in comparison to Vegas's mid-season 120-point pace.
The 5v5 score and venue-adjusted numbers, however, don't betray much deviation (the parentheses is NHL rank):
Overall shooting and save percentage have held too:
It's special teams where you see good -- and bad.
Let's start with the good -- since January 21st at Carolina, Vegas has enjoyed the best power play in the league with a 35.8% success rate. Before then, the Knights had struck at only 16.4% (24th). Overall, their power play has risen to seventh in the NHL.
Statistically, the chief difference is they're getting more rubber on net:
A decade of data suggests that shots on goal are the key predictor for power play success; you can check out my research below.
"You get a little too cute," indicated Miller. "When our power play is most effective, we're keeping it simple, just having those outside shots, continual kind of circular pressure."
Theodore agreed with his fellow blueliner, "It just has to do with simplifying. Sometimes, you're trying to find the perfect play. It's not always there. When you're getting shots to the net, traffic is there. Guys are able to find that loose puck."
For what it's worth, Miller and Theodore skate on different power play units.
On the other hand, the penalty kill has gone south. Since February 2nd at Minnesota, Vegas has the worst PK in the league (69.0%).
Losing top penalty-killers like Pierre-à‰douard Bellemare and Tomas Nosek for stretches of time hasn't helped. Also, Marc-Andre Fleury, who was actually rocking a higher SH save % (.943) than EV Sv % (.941) on February 1st was due for a market correction. Since then, Fleury has sported a .773 SH Sv %.
Regardless, the underlying short-handed stats aren't too concerning and suggest a rebound could be on the horizon.
There hasn't been a concentrated period of time all season when the Golden Knights' power play and penalty kill have been succeeding in concert -- if that happens, watch out. If the man advantage can keep piling on shots and the PK can keep preventing chances, sprinkle a little puck luck, and Vegas might run the table to end the season...or the playoffs.
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From 2007-17, these were the most successful power play teams, sorted by PP Goals For/60:
Eight of these teams were also top-10 in PP Shots For/60:
The Canucks and Sabres, while not in the top-10 in terms of Goals For/60, were still top-15 in that category.
As for other statistical categories and their correlation to power play success, seven Top-10 PP Corsi For/60 teams, six Top-10 PP Scoring Chance For/60 squads, and just three Top-10 PP High-Danger Corsi For/60 clubs were Top-10 PP Goals For/60 squads.
The lesson here?
Get that shot through!
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For four periods, the Knights played as poorly as they've played all season. Three of those frames led to a 5-4 loss to the Senators last Friday, while Marc-Andre Fleury kept one of those periods scoreless against the Devils on Sunday. Vegas would rebound to win 3-2 in Jersey, stopping a three-game losing streak.
I liked the 1st line. I didn't like much anybody else. (Gallant, 3/2/18)
On Sunday, Tomas Hyka's speed sparked David Perron and Erik Haula. His forecheck and Brad Hunt's pinch set up Perron's opening goal:
Notice Erik Haula covering high for the pinching Hunt; Haula then re-joins the attack as Hunt peels back. This is the five-man connection that Gallant always stresses.
We didn’t win enough one-on-one battles. (Gallant, 3/2/18)
Everytime our D has the puck, everybody is swinging away. We need to give options to our D and help them out.At the end of the day, it’s easy to blame the D for turning the puck over on the wall, but if the forward is not there, it’s our fault, it’s not their fault.
We’ve got good D, guys who play simple. If we don’t give them the easy pass, obviously, there are going to be turnovers. We need to make it easy on ourselves. (Jonathan Marchessault, 3/2/18)
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Stats as of 3/4/18, courtesy of Corsica, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, and Sporting Charts.
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