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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: The Case For Trading Jonathan Toews
Author Message
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 14 @ 3:59 PM ET
I think Kotkaniemi and Tkachuck are both gone by #8. There is always one player that drops in the draft each year. This year I think it is Hughes.

1 Dahlin
2 Svechnikov
3 Kotkaniemi
4 Bouchard
5 Dobson
6 Zadina
7 Tkachuk
8 Wahlstrom
9 Bovquist
10 Hughes
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 14 @ 4:07 PM ET
I think Kotkaniemi and Tkachuck are both gone by #8. There is always one player that drops in the draft each year. This year I think it is Hughes.

1 Dahlin
2 Svechnikov
3 Kotkaniemi
4 Bouchard
5 Dobson
6 Zadina
7 Tkachuk
8 Wahlstrom
9 Bovquist
10 Hughes

- -Doh-

I'd go with either Dobson or Boqvist as the prospect who could drop out of the top 10, if any, but think both remain in the 6-10 range.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 14 @ 4:10 PM ET
You don't need the top six to change significantly. They need 40 more goals and a healthy Crow to get into the playoffs. Where it is clear that anything can happen.

Toews, Saad and Kane shoot their career numbers and they get a 35 point 3C then they are a playoff team.

They need to get better at disrupting play in the neutral zone and exiting their own zone which can be done with changing how they play on the ice or making some moves.

Simply put, letting guys like Gus, Forsling and Keith use their feet rather than play patty cake with the other defender would help tremendously. Moreover, the center coming back lower to pick up pucks would make a difference as well.

The gap isn't that huge because the hard cap. They still have 3 hall of fame players in the line up and that is a thing. Tavares makes them a playoff team just by adding him alone. Signing a veteran to skate 14 minutes, kill penalties and win draws gets them close. Adding a defender with a decent NHL pedigree not named Oesterle to skate with Keith and a 3C gets them closer.

They are going to move Hossa's deal because if they want to be competitive next year they know they need to do it. That gives them 17 million to acquire salary via trade or making a big FA signing. They also have a lot of assets that have value regardless of what some of the gloom and doom folks here think.

Its not. that. bad.

- fattybeef

IMHO, the bolded part articulates the pivotal needs, particularly the first part about changing how the team plays (i.e. strategies, structure, discipline, desire). The second part is important as key players are needed to allow for proper slotting of everyone else based on what they can bring to the ice (or not bring). But the second part may not matter if the first part doesn't change for the better.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Jun 14 @ 4:15 PM ET
Canes have a really great young winger in Zykov, too. He's big and plays physical. Top 6 talent, IMHO.
- AEL_Fox


Yep. He looked fantastic in his brief stint in the NHL. Big dude who parks his ass in front of the net but has decent enough hands to be good in a cycle too.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jun 14 @ 4:21 PM ET
Yes, the top six play DOES need to change significantly. NONE of them play tough on the boards anymore. They are one and done rushes or play keep away around the perimeter. Unless and until the philosophy and scheme change, we will see more of the same. This is a faith in this group rebounding issue - which to me depends upon a return to a tougher style of play from this group. My money says not gonna happen., but if it does, great. There may be three HOF players, but the eye test, if not the data, point directly to declining performance.

As for the cap, losing Hossa's deal does not give more cap. They do not have $17MM in cap to work with. They have $11MM (including Hossa's LTIR) plus whatever cap growth is generated by NHL/NHLPA. The only difference is when Hossa's money can be "spent". Not to mention they still have pending RFAs to sign as well, leaving an even lower net number to work with for new acquisitions.

I'm not a doom and gloomer - just a realist. This team needs an enema to get back to being on a path to being a perennial contender. Better to admit that now and make the best decisions for the long term rather than jerk the fan base around with sugar coated expectations. Sadly, the "core" is not what it was at its peak, and thinking a few moves here and there will make them a contender again just seems to be fantasy.

- Return of the Roar


Def a doom and gloomer.

And you are wrong about the cap space. Theyre at 68-70 million and the upper limit now is 75. Add 5 for when it goes to 80 and you have between 10-12. Add Hossa's 5 million and they have 15-17. Congratulations on being able to do math.

There is absolutely zero reason to plan for some kind of future. They have HOF players on the roster now and as Washington demonstrated, the team with the most of those usually wins the big prize.

All of the data aside from actually putting the puck in the net says Toews and Saad had dominant seasons. Keith is so good at hockey that he made Jordan freaking Oesterle look like a NHL player at times. Kane is going to be at least a PPG if not better.

Good goaltending and 2 or 3 key moves \ acquisitions and they are right back in the mix because of the parity in the league.

The future is now while some of these guys are still useful and the fan base is still giving them some attention.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 14 @ 4:33 PM ET
Here are a couple of names to chew on for all of you who wish to draft Tkachuk. Kyle Beach taken 11th and Mark McNeil taken 18th. They were also solid and gritty and tough too and actually had shown more offensive skill than Tkachuk to the point of the Draft. Beach had had some problems with Hockey Canada where he blew his opportunities internationally but he scored a ton in the WHL. However, McNeil was golden - respected Captain of the PA Raiders and member of Team Canada. Hawks had 2 First Rounders that year and took him ahead of Danault. He’d skate through walls too.

For both Beach and McNeil it sadly turned out that they didn’t have the high-end skill, the high-end skating to excell in the NHL. Beach never played a game in the NHL. McNeil has played 2. I’ve said you can teach lots of things but you cannot teach skill. The Hawks simply cannot risk Tkachuk at 8. The Hawks need to draft a player where they can say high-end skill - check and high-end skating - check.

- Z3Hawk


I hear you Z but outside of usually 1-2 guys in every draft class, there are risks with any draft pick, even those rated in the Top 15. I view a worst case scenario for Tkachuk as Tom Wilson and best case....he's like his father. With small defenseman like Hughes/Boquist, or big bodies but slow mind/feet dmen like Bouchard/Dobson.....I think there is as much risk if not more that they bust. Tkachuk has NHL size and I do not see any skating issues with him. He's at worst a 3rd line crash and banger that can score 15 goals. At best hes a consistent 30/30 big, mean and nasty power forward on your top line.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 14 @ 4:34 PM ET
The most puzzling thing to me is that most boards don't have a Center going until 9 or 10, which hasn't happened in about ten years. Seems to be a race between Veleno, Kotkaniemi, and Hayton. Then there's the next tier of Lundestrom, Thomas, Kupari, and McLeod. I don't know much about guys other than Veleno and Kotkaniemi. I like Veleno's pedigree (QMJHL exception and all), but it sounds like he's another 'risky' pick according to some. I'd just hate to pass on him and have him be the next Giroux or Couture.
- ObeseOprah


Joe Veleno was in my top three all your in my early 2018 mock (Note I have two rounds of 2019 mock up already).
I talked to the St. John GM about him, the fans, and he does play centre has bite to his offensive, skates better than he gets credit for, but because he had a troubled year, and generated fall less than expected, got traded, picked it up, he isn't considered an impact dynamic option at the position, but one of the safest picks in the draft, because
he probably plays in the NHL, and well, but maybe not a game breaker star. I won't dismiss him b/c I still like him. I had him ahead of Hayton until this week. I watched do much of him in that week, that I simply felt he was hockey smart, sneaky, strong, determined and instrumental in making things happen,BUT he doesn't have that fluidity of motion or that big time shot yet. (A lot of teams probably have him as more than second line potential but that is why he is a notch below.)
Some team may get very lucky with this heavy player, he could be a Toews type at some point...but right now, he isn't unless the crickets on Hayton on Veleno are there b/c there is really more interest than shown.

so Kotkaniemi jumps over them because there wasn't proof thatch was more than a dynamic winger...maybe a first line winger, creator and goal scorer...then he finally got to play centre in the World under 18s and he was really really good there.
Most of the video posted is from him on the wing, so at centre you just added a jump in his possible position just as Pierre-Luc Dubois was shocking pick, when Columbus chose him over Jesse Puljujärvi, who they thought was only a winger.


It is simply a very rare year. And last year's class was tilted the other way, centre-heavy.
Usually you see these best players having to play centre or do so they have the puck.
And there are quality kids you mentioned,but after lots of looks the NHL scouts start to decide I want the highest upside player at the position I select, and if it is a centre, there must be a clear delineation that the centre can be projected as a dynamic scoring guy, big enough to handle the checking, and strong and FAST.
If they start to look like they have all but do not have a strong indication they can score at the higher levels they start getting that "projects as a second line centre" designation...

The even tougher delineation is when a team has to decide that if they draft a guy who plays centre, if all they are getting is a guy who may only have the ability to climb to 3rd line centre or Forward7...so is this junior scorer who can't be an NHL top six centre play 'checking line?"


2013 5 of the top 9
2014 3 of the top 4,4 of 5 with Michael Dal Colle,who had bust written all over him.
2015. 4 of the top 6
2016 2 of top 3, but Pierre-Luc Dubois, like Kotkaniemi was playing wing and had to be groomed to be centre.
2017. 7 of the top 9, 10 out of the top 13

2013
Nathan MacKinnon
Sasha Alexsander Barkov
Elias Lindholm
Sean Monahan (And that is if you see Bo Horvat as centre only not a three position forward...
2014
Sam Reinhart
Leon Draisaitl
Sam Bennett
2015
Connor McDavid
Jack Eichel
Dylan Strome
Pavel Zacha
2016
Auston Matthews
Pierre-Luc Dubois
2017
Nico Hischier. these first two can play anywhere up front and might
Nolan Patrick
Elias Pettersson
Cody Glass
Lias Andersson
Casey Mittelstadt. so can Casey
Michael Rasmussen and if this kids fails, he's awing
Gabriel Vilardi
Martin Necas
Nick Suzuki


and Logan Couture for a second...that was the draft in Columbus the Kane draft.
Doug Wilson decided that he was the guy he wanted, and that the fact Couture had been out with mono, teams backed off...he and his scouts decided to get their guy and move up to slot nine (Blues spot) from slot.
I saw some special on TV somewhere hoe the Blues had locked in on Ian Cole and knew that they didn't have to pick him as early as 9 so they made the move down which was
The St. Louis Blues' first-round pick went to the San Jose Sharks as the result of a trade on June 22, 2007 that sent Toronto's first and second-round picks in 2007 (13th and 44th overall) and a third-round pick in 2008 to St. Louis in exchange for this pick.

So if you are locked in an think you need a centre and you are sure you are at very least getting a dynamic top six centre, you make the move to jump up.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 14 @ 4:39 PM ET
You don't need the top six to change significantly. They need 40 more goals and a healthy Crow to get into the playoffs. Where it is clear that anything can happen.
They need to get better at disrupting play in the neutral zone and exiting their own zone which can be done with changing how they play on the ice or making some moves.

- fattybeef


I think what really has to change is they have to be much more effective in their end and exiting, gaining possessions, and except for two games all year, imo, when the beat Edmonton and Winnipeg, where they good taking care of business.
I agree another really good defender solves but there isn't gonna be quick fix to that backline with a high level replacement.
So the improvement comes for the units.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 14 @ 4:45 PM ET
Nothing flashy, but a guy I have my eye on is Greg Pateryn. He did a decent job with a lot of Dzone time in Dallas as their #4 in terms of minutes (nearly 20 per night). He can hit, he can block shots and he has some size, so maybe he doesn't offer much more than they have already, but I think he might be available for less $$$ if they decide to move a guy like Murphy. The pickings are a bit slim.
- breadbag



I think you hit on it with him...I like him too.

There actually is similar player in this draft class in my opinion.
Adam Ginning
Big physical defender whose skating, footwork, and pivots improved dramatically over the season. As a defender, he initiates contact, making big hits and rubbing on attackers with regularity. Plays big minutes against the better opponents and on the penalty kill. His pivots have shown improvements and he get on the back pedal and has tightened his gaps. After transition in his own end, he uses his partner for dee to dee passer and clears his zone effectively with solid outlet passes. Really long armed and has soft hands with passes and receptions as he moves up ice. Effective and creative with cross ice feeds and jumping up driving the play into the attack zone. This big man reads the offensive end as smart as anyone and can create as well as rub opponents hard. Arguably, was the best Swedish player in the Five Nations Tourney.There is long term potential in his selection, because he is a player who showed tons of improvement in his footwork, and over all agility, taking steps of confidence in his involvement in the offensive zone. Upside is there to continue improving past being though of as a big physical defender with a huge wingspan who handlers the puck well.


--Bill Placzek--
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 14 @ 4:48 PM ET
The worst possible scenario for me is Bouchard, Dobson sitting there with Adam Boqvist, because I have sick feeling I know who they would take, but I ma not jinxing things....
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 14 @ 4:51 PM ET
The worst possible scenario for me is Bouchard, Dobson sitting there with Adam Boqvist, because I have sick feeling I know who they would take, but I ma not jinxing things....
- wiz1901


Who do you WANT to take in that scenario, who do you think they WILL take, and do you think Bouchard/Dobson have high potential to bust?
SoftServe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 01.19.2016

Jun 14 @ 4:53 PM ET
What would it take to get Erik Karlsson? That $6.5 million cap looks super nice for the kind of player he is. Pick 8?
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Jun 14 @ 4:58 PM ET
I am not sure that is fair for the hawks because the players in that late of the round are clumped even closer items of equal in stature, where as the Rangers and Hawks have a solid 1 - 80 list of guys and it would be a stretch to think that they see the two choices at #8 and #9 as liked the same.

Now I don't think the way it works is the hawks say, well who would you use the #8 pick one?, that will make us decide...
once you trade the pick Rangers can do what they want, and you don't ask anyway.

Following me?
Why would I make a trade with you to move UP if I knew you were interested in another guy, b/c that means you are getting him w/o doing anything.

I guess you could say there is another team interested to try and them to do it...

- wiz1901

If the Hawks like both Wahlstrom and Kotkaniemi, and don't care which one they get, it doesn't matter who NYR picks. I'm not suggesting Bowman asks the Rangers who they're picking.
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jun 14 @ 5:00 PM ET
Dreger-

More on Insider Trading. Tavares is now focusing on negotiations with the Islanders on an extension. Daily discussions last two weeks...
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Jun 14 @ 5:03 PM ET
What would it take to get Erik Karlsson? That $6.5 million cap looks super nice for the kind of player he is. Pick 8?
- SoftServe

No.
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Jun 14 @ 5:05 PM ET
What would it take to get Erik Karlsson? That $6.5 million cap looks super nice for the kind of player he is. Pick 8?
- SoftServe


Tavares? Karlsson? And others like this are simply not realistic options. Not even sure why it's brought up. Hawks salary structure has changed little over last year, albatross contracts, top heavy salary structure makes adding further high priced players unrealistic.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 14 @ 5:06 PM ET
Agree to disagree, kid can skate/hit/fight/clear the crease and will probably be good for a respectable amount of points if he gets a decent amount of games on the 4th line. Rockford's head coach loved this kid! Yes, Bouma and Wingels were/are not good, I feel Martinsen is better than both of those guys,
- Murph76

Do not get me wrong, I don't dislike Martinsen at all and think he could potentially be useful on a checking line. I think he has pretty good defensive positioning and awareness, is better with timing his hits rather than just going for a boom, and works hard when on a dump/chase situation.

My issue is not with Martinsen himself, but in that I do not want Q to run with a grinder 4th line like last season. It doesn't work and hasn't worked for cup teams in a while. Teams either run two offensive top lines and then a checking and bumslaying line in the bottom 6. More often than not, the 4th line is the checking/shutdown line - was with the Hawks 2013 & 2015, both Pens years, and for the Caps this year. The Jets and Knights were similarly stacked. Grinder/energy lines, those that only face other 4th lines, are not useful like they used to be in the NHL.

So, to make sure that isn't an option, the Hawks need a checking center capable of transitioning well. I want guys that are physical like Martinsen to be more than just a grinder, more than Bouma, that's all.

PS. I think Wingels was good when they moved him to be with Kampf some. He is another I thought could have been a checking winger but Q just never really tried them in that way.
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jun 14 @ 5:07 PM ET
Tavares? Karlsson? And others like this are simply not realistic options. Not even sure why it's brought up. Hawks salary structure has changed little over last year, albatross contracts, top heavy salary structure makes adding further high priced players unrealistic.
- kwolf68



Yup.

tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Jun 14 @ 5:10 PM ET
Tavares? Karlsson? And others like this are simply not realistic options. Not even sure why it's brought up. Hawks salary structure has changed little over last year, albatross contracts, top heavy salary structure makes adding further high priced players unrealistic.
- kwolf68

Only if they can flip him at the deadline for a huge haul
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 14 @ 5:33 PM ET
If the Hawks like both Wahlstrom and Kotkaniemi, and don't care which one they get, it doesn't matter who NYR picks. I'm not suggesting Bowman asks the Rangers who they're picking.
- tvetter
Some of the draft guys have been quoted as liking the Hawks, it might seem very exciting to them that the Hawks are selecting. Kotkaniemi was one of them - said he hoped the Hawks liked him like they did other Finnish players they've drafted in the 1st round like Teravainen and Jokiharju.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jun 14 @ 5:49 PM ET
I think what really has to change is they have to be much more effective in their end and exiting, gaining possessions, and except for two games all year, imo, when the beat Edmonton and Winnipeg, where they good taking care of business.
I agree another really good defender solves but there isn't gonna be quick fix to that backline with a high level replacement.
So the improvement comes for the units.

- wiz1901


100% agreed there
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 5:58 PM ET
Maybe Kotkaniemi slips down due to his contract all obligation in Finland. As a result Merkely pass over by one of his suitors as Kotkainiemi is a good value mid to late tween's selection.


- jhawk59


Walleye corrected me 59 and I was out the door without a chance to thank him for doing so....... I'll go back and find his correction but think he saw where indeed Kotkaniemi is under contract for 2 more yrs in Finland but has an out to come to the NHL.

So as I know it to be now the worry about drafting the Finn because he's under contract to his pro team shouldn't be an issue.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 6:00 PM ET
Kotkaniemi has an NHL out clause, my guess is he goes somewhere in the top ten.
- walleyeb1


Thank you, Walleye!!!
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 6:05 PM ET
I think Kotkaniemi and Tkachuck are both gone by #8.
- -Doh-


I think you're right. Hawks draft Wahlstrom but the wild card is AZ. Like the Hawks they simply draft skill although they really need a Dman but would add their 15 yr old GM will wheel and deal. To me AZ is the wild card.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 6:08 PM ET
Here are a couple of names to chew on for all of you who wish to draft Tkachuk. Kyle Beach taken 11th and Mark McNeil taken 18th. They were also solid and gritty and tough too and actually had shown more offensive skill than Tkachuk to the point of the Draft. Beach had had some problems with Hockey Canada where he blew his opportunities internationally but he scored a ton in the WHL. However, McNeil was golden - respected Captain of the PA Raiders and member of Team Canada. Hawks had 2 First Rounders that year and took him ahead of Danault. He’d skate through walls too.

For both Beach and McNeil it sadly turned out that they didn’t have the high-end skill, the high-end skating to excell in the NHL. Beach never played a game in the NHL. McNeil has played 2. I’ve said you can teach lots of things but you cannot teach skill. The Hawks simply cannot risk Tkachuk at 8. The Hawks need to draft a player where they can say high-end skill - check and high-end skating - check.

- Z3Hawk


Without dissecting the post I will agree that power forwards are damn hard to get, especially top 6 ones, and can be tough to project. A big reason why when a Tkachuk comes along 31 GM's are lined up, a Lucic is over paid and a Panik is given chance after chance.
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