Not a Hawks fan, don't see a lot of their games so I can only offer stats-based, surface-level impressions. So I could be way off base (especially on point 2).

Some thoughts:

(1) I think Toews has always been a little overrated. Great player, elite at his peak, but never seriously in the discussion for best player in the game (or even close, really).

Pulling a list of all players with at least 500 games played since 2007-08 (i.e., Toews' rookie year), he's 23rd overall in points per game. Because I set the bar really high for the games played cutoff, 16 out of the 22 ahead of him were active in all 11 seasons of the sample (exceptions: Stamkos 2008-, Benn 2009-, Hall and Seguin 2010-, St. Louis -2015, Datsyuk -2016).

Toews has never finished in the NHL top 10 in points, and only finished top 10 in goals once (during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season). On a PPG basis even old man Zetterberg (ages 27-37) was more productive than Toews at 19-29.

Now, in actual fact Toews is obviously better than the 23rd-best forward of the last 11 seasons because he adds a lot more defensive value than the typical star forward. But to be honest I've never felt he was really in league with the likes of Crosby and Malkin (or even Datsyuk, Getzlaf, Stamkos, Thornton ...), even in his best seasons.

At his peak I think Toews was maybe the 10th best forward in the NHL. Not too shabby by any means, but now that the Hawks have taken a few steps backward and Toews is aging out of his prime people are maybe realizing he was never the generational-level talent that he was pegged to be. Honestly, "above average all-around first line center capable of 55-60 points in a full season" as he rounds age 30 is not really so far off from what we might expect given his track record.

(2) Shooting percentage. Toews has fallen off a cliff the last two years. After averaging in the neighborhood of 15% most of his career, he's just just ~10% the last two years.

Now normally, shooting percentage is really volatile year to year, so if you see something way different from a guy's career average one season you'd usually expect it to regress / bounce back the next. But sometimes shooting percentages change more permanently for one reason or another (usage, injuries, declining skill, etc.) This is really clear with Zetterberg, for example, who was a roughly average efficiency shooter (for a forward) through 2008-09, and then suddenly and immediately became a poor one thereafter.

When Toews was at his peak, he was generating a ton of high danger chances in close -- for several years in a row he was in the NHL top ten for shortest average shot distance. Basically he was exceptionally good at getting himself into point blank range before taking the shot, giving him the best chance to cash in.

I don't have numbers for the last couple of seasons on shot distance and I don't watch a ton of Hawks games, but has something changed about his deployment or usage (or just his general skill set) that keeps him further on the outside than before? That would be my wild guess theory, but I could be totally off base.
- Sven22

he had very good corsi and possession numbers; had high quality chances like saad but neither could finish = lower shooting %. He just seem to labor the majority of games and was hardly noticed other than for that.

"you're" . Toewes

And "you're" not getting the the last 17 seconds back from 2013, or a boatload for Tory Krug.

If the low ball Trouba, he will want out, and the large amount of bigger fish on the Jets roster MUST be paid so I don't expect there to be hometown discount from Trouba's representation.
Part of my deal was the hawks eating a 5million contract (Bryan Little) in the deal; it solves Cap for jets.


Read the post from 9:40
- wiz1901

huh? why did you take that all butt hurt? i love Toewes. he's just starting to decline a bit and has a 10.5 cap hit. just because JT is from winnipeg doesn't make a good fit.

Here is hoping Tazer turns it around this season.

Guy has been my favorite Hawk since JR (who is still the best ) and I think has to be a favorite of many Hawks fans for reasons that really speak for themselves.

Its tough, the guy has done so many awesome things for us fans for years now and has always been that guy that we all easily love. I personally never thought that we would ever be having conversations like this involving Toews, but here we are.

IMO, I can't see him being traded and I say that more so due to his contract. It was pretty clear when himself and Kane made those deals that they were going to be Hawks for life. To try to move a contract like that with equal return, and let alone find a suitor that will take it is beyond difficult. If you think moving Seabrook is tough, that contract is

I also think these talks are wayyyy to premature in the first place. If Toews was the only player who had an off season and finished with that record then I would think differently, but the whole team last season (barring a guy here or there,) was putrid.

"you're" . Toewes

And "you're" not getting the the last 17 seconds back from 2013, or a boatload for Tory Krug.

If the low ball Trouba, he will want out, and the large amount of bigger fish on the Jets roster MUST be paid so I don't expect there to be hometown discount from Trouba's representation.
Part of my deal was the hawks eating a 5million contract (Bryan Little) in the deal; it solves Cap for jets.


Read the post from 9:40
- wiz1901

Ask 100 hockey fans (excluding Jets and Blackhawks fans) if they think your deal is even a starting point for negotiations, and see what they say.

Can I go first?

Fine, we will give you Bobby Ryan for Toews 1-4-1!

Like the blog Justin, and agree, I’d rather see Toews pick up the gauntlet Rocky threw down and run with it.

Whether he does or not is a different story but I’d be shocked if Toews is traded. Not saying it shouldn’t be done if there was a deal out there that makes total sense for the Hawks, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening.
- HawkintheD

Just image all of that glorious cap space if Toews were traded!!!

Ask 100 hockey fans (excluding Jets and Blackhawks fans) if they think your deal is even a starting point for negotiations, and see what they say.

Can I go first?
- Atomic Wedgie

I didn't know fans got to vote on trades. Shocking no one stopped any of the questionable trades in the past.

I'm not saying the trade is realistic, but the idea that fans have much of an inkling of what goes on inside a GMs head is always silly to me. They make weird trades all the time that fans don't like / understand.

Ask 100 hockey fans (excluding Jets and Blackhawks fans) if they think your deal is even a starting point for negotiations, and see what they say.

Can I go first?
- Atomic Wedgie

- Tumbleweed

Bill,
I speak to you occasionally and we email.

I am choosing this board this time and I am fairly certain no one knows the complete truth outside of trainers and front office executive (well some teamattes likely know some details you imagine).

So, being quite blunt:
Is Toews performance at least going as far back as the playoff loss to the Pred's (that entire season, really) a result of his fear to avoid the.physical contact which could result in a career ending injury?

I have a personal.or unique understanding of this issue. And some of you might as well. If you have been diagnosed with any condition or body break down/injury which prevents you from able to play safely again without worrying...

I find it extremely difficult to believe that he lost ability. His skill level does appear to have been less, so if that is true then there may be something which is temporary or hopefully not permanently a handicap - such as years of hacking and strain upon his back (for example).

The greater problem may or may not be the last concussion he suffered. Which we may or may not be aware when it happened, it's severity, if he played through it. I know there us NHL protocol buy a gritty courageous player like Toews might have been able to cover it up

Going forward I am sure that he wants to collect on his big contract even while he is diminished in his ability to perform up to his all star level of play (which we saw in the early and middle years if his career).

The answers to the doubt or questions we have might well only come out through the level of his performance next season and beyond. I would like to be optimistic but if I were a betting person I suggest we have seen his best and he will struggle to maintain the level he showed last season. Hockey is a demanding sport and Toews played a rough and tumble style. He endured a lot if physical abuse; you cannot be pissed off, you just have to accept this for being what it is.

Now if you are another team and you really believe his leadership would prove benficial....you better have a deal include Chicago covering at least half his salary cap and the pricetag IMHO is a mid round draft choice. Yes, to take that contract ....are you nuts....if worth gambling to acquire Toews then it us a buyer's market with little to no interest....think of this as your own business...you want to pay for a broken down player because he is a super hero leader....come on now...hate to say it, but I believe eventually that Tiees will have to press box or retire...how soon is the big question....Q wants relentless effort eh?!

So you do nothing but rip the GM/management, but then are baby $hit soft on Toews' decline/play - when that is crystal clear by anyone with any hockey knowledge?

Good to know
- PatShart

I think Toews knows how it went last year and who he really is and will therefore do everything he can to rebound this year. Because of this I think there is an excellent chance that he will have the most successful year that he's had in the last several years. As far as mgt goes, yeah the hard facts and sorry record indicate that this last place team is desperate for much needed additional mgt help.

I didn't know fans got to vote on trades. Shocking no one stopped any of the questionable trades in the past.

I'm not saying the trade is realistic, but the idea that fans have much of an inkling of what goes on inside a GMs head is always silly to me. They make weird trades all the time that fans don't like / understand.
- L_B_R

So if I propose trading Matt Martin and Kapanen for McDavid, and you tell me you think I should seek help for my crack addiction, I'd be sane to tell you that weird trades happen all the time, and nobody knows what goes through Chiarelli's mind?

Although maybe I've picked a bad example here...

So if I propose trading Matt Martin and Kapanen for McDavid, and you tell me you think I should seek help for my crack addiction, I'd be sane to tell you that weird trades happen all the time, and nobody knows what goes through Chiarelli's mind?

Although maybe I've picked a bad example here...
- Atomic Wedgie

I love Matt Martin, man. Def a throwback kind of guy.

How has he been received in Toronto? It seemed like a good pickup to have a player like him watching over Matthews and some of those younger players on the Leafs.

huh? why did you take that all butt hurt? i love Toewes. he's just starting to decline a bit and has a 10.5 cap hit. just because JT is from winnipeg doesn't make a good fit.
- Fountain-San

Toews is not just beginning to decline a bit. Take off the blinders. He has issues. I hope he can return somewhat to his old form. But years of bodily abuse through his wear and tear style plus concussions is a huge factor. Here is what it boils down to: show us what you have left in the tank. I think that is what Rocky means if you read between the lines (so to speak).

LATE ADD maybe Rocky is calling out to their pride and to care enough to try harder, no D Keith crap attitude (although I do not know for sure last season if Keith was toatally recovered from the knee injury).

Look...Bowman at some point has to tell McDonough and Rocky that he can not milk his veterans to another playoff and that the cost of winning three Cups plus winning seasons is that the team will fall back and needs to be a rebuild based on drafting successfully more than anything else. This should be common sense. If Bowman wants to keep his job, he has to get that message across. But you wonder what is going through McDonough mind when he hires a firm to evaluate....a non hockey sports mind decision...excuse is that he [McDonough] is covering all angles in assessing what I'll this team.

I think Toews knows how it went last year and who he really is and will therefore do everything he can to rebound this year. Because of this I think there is an excellent chance that he will have the most successful year that he's had in the last several years. As far as mgt goes, yeah the hard facts and sorry record indicate that this last place team is desperate for much needed additional mgt help.
- Savoy

So Toews "knows how it went"...but management doesn't?

You give the hard facts on management and give them zero leeway, fine. But what about the hard facts on Toews play? Quit giving him excuses if you offer none for management- because they go hand in hand.

- BURDA13

Despite all the negatives I (and so many others) wrote about Ryan Merkley, you have to think he is still high on the lists of teams with more than pick, mid and second round.


Detroit Rangers Montreal Blackhawks even. He passes too pretty.

I have blabbed on and on about negatives (the off-ice, the teammate quibbling, the coach confrontations, and the plain stupid reactions of frustrations), but this is a competitive kid who wants to win (who was the foreard Shawzie?)
Great vision and ability to instantly get the puck 100 feet, and just great edging work on his skates.

I like him even at the #27...

Bill,
I speak to you occasionally and we email.

I am choosing this board this time and I am fairly certain no one knows the complete truth outside of trainers and front office executive (well some teamattes likely know some details you imagine).

So, being quite blunt:
Is Toews performance at least going as far back as the playoff loss to the Pred's (that entire season, really) a result of his fear to avoid the.physical contact which could result in a career ending injury?

I have a personal.or unique understanding of this issue. And some of you might as well. If you have been diagnosed with any condition or body break down/injury which prevents you from able to play safely again without worrying...

I find it extremely difficult to believe that he lost ability. His skill level does appear to have been less, so if that is true then there may be something which is temporary or hopefully not permanently a handicap - such as years of hacking and strain upon his back (for example).

The greater problem may or may not be the last concussion he suffered. Which we may or may not be aware when it happened, it's severity, if he played through it. I know there us NHL protocol buy a gritty courageous player like Toews might have been able to cover it up

Going forward I am sure that he wants to collect on his big contract even while he is diminished in his ability to perform up to his all star level of play (which we saw in the early and middle years if his career).

The answers to the doubt or questions we have might well only come out through the level of his performance next season and beyond. I would like to be optimistic but if I were a betting person I suggest we have seen his best and he will struggle to maintain the level he showed last season. Hockey is a demanding sport and Toews played a rough and tumble style. He endured a lot if physical abuse; you cannot be pissed off, you just have to accept this for being what it is.

Now if you are another team and you really believe his leadership would prove benficial....you better have a deal include Chicago covering at least half his salary cap and the pricetag IMHO is a mid round draft choice. Yes, to take that contract ....are you nuts....if worth gambling to acquire Toews then it us a buyer's market with little to no interest....think of this as your own business...you want to pay for a broken down player because he is a super hero leader....come on now...hate to say it, but I believe eventually that Tiees will have to press box or retire...how soon is the big question....W wants relentless effort eh?!
- jhawk59

I think only Toews has the answers, and the concern doesn't mean he is leaving just yet, just that nothing seems off the table in the front office.

I love Matt Martin, man. Def a throwback kind of guy.

How has he been received in Toronto? It seemed like a good pickup to have a player like him watching over Matthews and some of those younger players on the Leafs.
- Hank3Henshaw

His lack of jump saw him sitting a lot....

huh? why did you take that all butt hurt? i love Toewes. he's just starting to decline a bit and has a 10.5 cap hit. just because JT is from winnipeg doesn't make a good fit.
- Fountain-San

My apologies, hockey man-friend!

So if I propose trading Matt Martin and Kapanen for McDavid, and you tell me you think I should seek help for my crack addiction, I'd be sane to tell you that weird trades happen all the time, and nobody knows what goes through Chiarelli's mind?

Although maybe I've picked a bad example here...
- Atomic Wedgie

Yeah, you picked a bad example lol. Toews may be declining (though only mildly, people are overreacting imo), but your example is comparing quite an accomplished player in Toews to a guy who is barely a NHL player at all in Martin.

My point is that a GMs make trades that fans think are weird because we don't have the same perspective on the team as them. What a GM thinks the team needs may not align with the fans. Who gives up Subban for Weber? Who gives up Hall for just Larsson? Neither of those trades are idiotically dumb (like your example), just lopsided from a skill level perspective. They did fill needs the GMs thought their teams had, though.

So yeah, there are the "ridiculous you're on crack armchair GM scenarios" fans make up and then there are "well, if a GM really felt they desperately needed _____, I guess but it's not a good value trade" that fans dislike. Key difference lbr. I personally, like I said, did not find that particular trade proposal realistic but I also wouldn't be that shocked if it happened cause GMs do things we as fans just don't always get.

His lack of jump saw him sitting a lot....
- wiz1901

Yep. He's certainly a slower player.

I wouldn't worry about Toews. People worry about his salary, but you aren't going to change it and they aren't going to move him. To me, I think the Hawks are more disappointed in Saad and Seabrook last season in terms of earning some of that contract.

In 2017/2018 Toews failed to convert on chances more than anything, but he got more chances and put more rubber on net than almost any other season he has had. (2010/2011 the only year higher). Early in the year there were a number of games where his line was carrying the team but failed to beat the goalie. The chances were there but the shots were not finding that 5 hole or getting over the goalie in many cases. Toews buried chances at about 2/3 his normal rate over the last two years.

Saad was shooting under 8% and Panik less than 6% while out there 5v5 and that doesn't cut it. Panik isn't an NHL top 6 winger and Saad just couldn't seem to figure things out no matter which line he was on. They tried sliding him to play on line 2 with Kane and it was awful.

If they want point production out of Toews it was very obvious they need a play maker on his wing. Toews/Saad are more of the type to finish chances then set them up and Panik is more of the same where he thrived on just being Johnny on the spot to knock in rebounds or chances. It would even help if the D core was getting some shots on net. I thought the Toews line did a lot of going low to high back to the D and the blueline had a bad season at creating any scoring chances with shots from the point because they didn't get shots through.

People may question the leadership or the character of Toews, but that isn't the kind of thing you just lose. It is just noise from a fan base that is struggling to deal with the fact that the Hawks aren't at the top of the pile anymore. I think Toews helped the young guys as most of them had most of their best games while playing on his wing. (Hinostroza, Duclair, Debrincat)

Toews needs to play better, specifically on the powerplay, but the "decline" narrative is shallow and overblown. The Hawks started the rebuild last year, give the team some time to solidify and fix the awful defense. They had much larger issues than the individual play of Toews.

He sucks and is massively overpaid

Case Closed

I love Matt Martin, man. Def a throwback kind of guy.

How has he been received in Toronto? It seemed like a good pickup to have a player like him watching over Matthews and some of those younger players on the Leafs.
- Hank3Henshaw

He played 3 games in the regular season after Jan 22, and didn't dress in the playoffs.

Simply put, he isn't fast enough to play the brand of hockey the Leafs are trying to play now.

At $2.5 million cap hit (two years left) and only $4 million in actual salary left, I'm guessing the Leafs will try to dump him for nothing this summer - maybe even try for the old Martin + 4th for a 7th kinda trade. But make no mistake: this will be a dump - Leafs won't be looking for value in return.

If they don't trade him, his low cap hit isn't the end of the world if he remains for another 2 years, but he's dead weight at this point.