Justin Lowe: The Case For Trading Jonathan Toews I was going to post more of an offseason shopping list blog this morning but pivoting to a Jonathan Toews discussion instead.

I will preface this blog by stating that I have not heard anything specific from my contacts on any Toews rumours or pending deals. I simply wanted to put a few of my own thoughts and educated guesses out as we all read between the lines of #19's play on the ice and what's been said to date this offseason.

First

No one wants Toews at 10.5 million. You couldn't give him away. So many miles on his body, three years on the decline. Ryan O'Reilly is available, younger, puts up the sane numbers, is just a good defensively and makes 4 mil less, who would want this anchor?

The absolute beauty of having the 8th overall. You simply take the best player available and assuming you've scouted well you have a top 6 F or top 3 D for 13-14 yrs.
- Mr Ricochet

Poor assumption to make with Stan. He’ll find a way to draft the one guy in the top 10 who doesn’t go on to have an NHL career.
- DarthKane

Like he did with
TEUVO TERAVAINEN @ slot 18
RYAN HARTMAN. @slot 20
NICK SCHMALTZ. @slot 30
?

Despite the facts that selecting prospects at age 18 means many will slip through the cracks and become better prop players than many selected before them, the stats show their is a much higher success rate picking this early


Carolina's pair Elias Lindholm & Haydn Fleury, Jake Virtanen Michael Dal Colle, Olli Juolevi and Derrick Pouliot and you can easily argue Lindholm has time to improve, Jake Virtaneneventually is 3rd liner, and Derrick Pouliot might someday make 2nd pair defender, and Olli Juolevi hasn't gotten there yet, and Haydn Fleury still needs more time.
I have had key interest in Michael Dal Colle because the Islanders had to choose in which draft there were keeping the him (and drafting him) and I never liked his upside, and he still maybe a 3rd liner.

Where there is more risk this year is iF the push defenders really are able to somewhat round out defensively...but we have seen a few bigger defenseman selected high fail because of their lack of quick feet and hands, is it works both ways.

I don't think I would worry that there is not only a safe pick, but several if anybody the experts have sitting in slots 1-8 scare them, or have any trouble trading it.

I thought Toews had a pretty good year, all things considered. 2 years ago he looked like a shell of himself; no speed, no hand, weak along the boards. Ignoring point totals, his game bounced back. There were stretches of the season where I thought he was the best player on the ice, and took control of the game.

With that being said, he needs to score more. He was getting his chances last year, but did not finish. I'd be more worried if he wasn't getting those chances, like 2 years ago. Add in his disinterested LW and the nightly lottery for RW, and it tells some of the story.

There's no doubt his play has bounced back. The points will follow.

No one wants Toews at 10.5 million. You couldn't give him away. So many miles on his body, three years on the decline. Ryan O'Reilly is available, younger, puts up the sane numbers, is just a good defensively and makes 4 mil less, who would want this anchor?
- halo63

Nobody wants more pessimism

To consider O'Reilly in the same level as Toews is an error, and the trade would probably be a Cap hockey trade with a young right handed defender Trouba coming aloing with Bryan Little as I posted in the end of the previous blog:

And before someone starts ripping into me about the Winnipeg Jets future salaries affecting a giant Toews cap hit: Unless the Jets don’t draft in the next four drafts, they are going to have a problem…not being able to use the draft AS a tool to be Cap compliant…there is so much talent and just so much money, right?

I NEVER thought they would NOT beat Vegas, but they had so many of their youngsters faces on milk cartons it was embarrassing so Toews is simply a great fit, and they are the talent he needs to resurrent his totals too.
They want to make a run next year, and WILL be a huge factor for the next half dozen but no guarantees, right?
They probably want to lose Bryan Little deal so he comes with Trouba.
To keep Wheeler, Laine, Kyle Connor. (No bridge deals for those two), and Tyler Myers, right?

Today @ 1:06 AM ET
I am not lying when I tell you they are disappointed in Toews on more than three different levels right now.

Do you mind sharing, even in generalities, what those three levels are? Don't want to wildly speculate, but that'll probably happen anyway.
- pdx2ord

He has lacked the game by game dominance in my areas, the need for a "better season this one."
Injury related cautions and issues
That he is not doing as much off ice promotion the entire year, what they think ispartof "captaining."

All we have to do is wait and see if JT is in any commercials this coming year. If not, look out. I have no idea how they could move his contract, but if he's not being highlighted in commercials anymore you can bet they'll give it a go.

Like the blog Justin, and agree, I’d rather see Toews pick up the gauntlet Rocky threw down and run with it.

Whether he does or not is a different story but I’d be shocked if Toews is traded. Not saying it shouldn’t be done if there was a deal out there that makes total sense for the Hawks, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening.

No one wants Toews at 10.5 million. You couldn't give him away. So many miles on his body, three years on the decline. Ryan O'Reilly is available, younger, puts up the sane numbers, is just a good defensively and makes 4 mil less, who would want this anchor?
- halo63

-21

Nobody wants more pessimism

To consider O'Reilly in the same level as Toews is an error, and the trade would probably be a Cap hockey trade with a young right handed defender Trouba coming aloing with Bryan Little as I posted in the end of the previous blog:

And before someone starts ripping into me about the Winnipeg Jets future salaries affecting a giant Toews cap hit: Unless the Jets don’t draft in the next four drafts, they are going to have a problem…not being able to use the draft AS a tool to be Cap compliant…there is so much talent and just so much money, right?

I NEVER thought they would NOT beat Vegas, but they had so many of their youngsters faces on milk cartons it was embarrassing so Toews is simply a great fit, and they are the talent he needs to resurrent his totals too.
They want to make a run next year, and WILL be a huge factor for the next half dozen but no guarantees, right?
They probably want to lose Bryan Little deal so he comes with Trouba.
To keep Wheeler, Laine, Kyle Connor. (No bridge deals for those two), and Tyler Myers, right?
- wiz1901

you're not getting Trouba for Toewes

I do not think they will move Toews.
I do think they will try to find a high level RW to play with Toews.
If they find a high level RW to play with Toews and Saad and Q leaves them together game in and game out I believe he will revert to the numbers he had 2010 to 2015 and the questions of his training, motivation and leadership will go away..

Is he worth $10.5 mil. Probably not. Who is?

Is he a still #1c. Yes. There are definitely some better centers than Toews for sure. But you cannot only look at points. He can play against the opponents toughest lines, take faceoffs, kill penalties, play physical, rises to the occasion in big games.

Like the blog Justin, and agree, I’d rather see Toews pick up the gauntlet Rocky threw down and run with it.

Whether he does or not is a different story but I’d be shocked if Toews is traded. Not saying it shouldn’t be done if there was a deal out there that makes total sense for the Hawks, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening.
- HawkintheD

I would hate to see toews traded. I miss the old Toews though. I remember he used to be good for at least one insane highlight-reel dangle master goal a year on top of all his excellent defense and stuff.

Toews doesn't need to get back to being in the same conversation as Crosby as best player in the league - he just has to be a legitimate #1 center on this team - which I don't think he has been the past three years. And the Hawks certainly don't have another #1 center on the roster or apparently in the system.

As Wiz said - apparently sharing Blackhawk brass thoughts - he has lacked the game to game dominance in any areas - which to me has been more noticeable than any dropoff stats. I remember game 7 against Vancouver in 2011 - scoring all by himself with about a minute left to tie the game and send it to OT - he just wasn't going to be part of a loss at that time (altho he couldn't get it done in OT). I haven't seen that kind of determination.

BTW: it seems that Kane's name is not on the "roster" of the Chicago Pro Hockey League any more - Schmaltz, AdB, Osterlie, Murphy, Saad still are.

I'm sorry. I just don't buy this, "a lot of miles " crap. Unless he has an injury then playing hockey is what makes people better at playing hockey. Something has changed. Perhaps he doesn't like going to the tough places anymore. Perhaps he lost his drive. Perhaps he needs some steak and eggs instead of broccoli and lettuce. He needs to love hockey again. Maybe playing in his hometown would give him reason.

Gotta earn your keep Johnny. I'm on your side. Find your muse.

Go Cappy

Toews is not that bad nor is he 10.5mm good right now. The real trouble is the decrepit decimated state of the team. Example with all the complaining about Toews he is still the best we have at that position by a longshot. Unfortunately some very good players have been moved off the team prematurely with no reasonable fair returns coming back. Unacceptable. Ownership should consider hiring one or two consultants maybe ex-gms to oversee and sign off on future trades before any more damage is done.

Toews is not that bad nor is he 10.5mm good right now. The real trouble is the decrepit decimated state of the team. Example with all the complaining about Toews he is still the best we have at that position by a longshot. Unfortunately some very good players have been moved off the team prematurely with no reasonable fair returns coming back. Unacceptable. Ownership should consider hiring one or two consultants maybe ex-gms to oversee and sign off on future trades before any more damage is done.
- Savoy

So you do nothing but rip the GM/management, but then are baby $hit soft on Toews' decline/play - when that is crystal clear by anyone with any hockey knowledge?

Good to know

>>>Toews is a warrior. A fearless competitor. We have seen this in the past, but to me, that appeared to fade lately. Instead, he seems more concerned at complaining to the refs and being frustrated on the bench. <<<

something inhibited him last year (lingering back injury?) he didn't show much compete in over 2/3 of the games. He has always female doged to the refs...but it seemed more noticeable cuz he was called for a season/career high in pens.

- BURDA13

can't please everone....

Not a Hawks fan, don't see a lot of their games so I can only offer stats-based, surface-level impressions. So I could be way off base (especially on point 2).

Some thoughts:

(1) I think Toews has always been a little overrated. Great player, elite at his peak, but never seriously in the discussion for best player in the game (or even close, really).

Pulling a list of all players with at least 500 games played since 2007-08 (i.e., Toews' rookie year), he's 23rd overall in points per game. Because I set the bar really high for the games played cutoff, 16 out of the 22 ahead of him were active in all 11 seasons of the sample (exceptions: Stamkos 2008-, Benn 2009-, Hall and Seguin 2010-, St. Louis -2015, Datsyuk -2016).

Toews has never finished in the NHL top 10 in points, and only finished top 10 in goals once (during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season). On a PPG basis even old man Zetterberg (ages 27-37) was more productive than Toews at 19-29.

Now, in actual fact Toews is obviously better than the 23rd-best forward of the last 11 seasons because he adds a lot more defensive value than the typical star forward. But to be honest I've never felt he was really in league with the likes of Crosby and Malkin (or even Datsyuk, Getzlaf, Stamkos, Thornton ...), even in his best seasons.

At his peak I think Toews was maybe the 10th best forward in the NHL. Not too shabby by any means, but now that the Hawks have taken a few steps backward and Toews is aging out of his prime people are maybe realizing he was never the generational-level talent that he was pegged to be. Honestly, "above average all-around first line center capable of 55-60 points in a full season" as he rounds age 30 is not really so far off from what we might expect given his track record.

(2) Shooting percentage. Toews has fallen off a cliff the last two years. After averaging in the neighborhood of 15% most of his career, he's just just ~10% the last two years.

Now normally, shooting percentage is really volatile year to year, so if you see something way different from a guy's career average one season you'd usually expect it to regress / bounce back the next. But sometimes shooting percentages change more permanently for one reason or another (usage, injuries, declining skill, etc.) This is really clear with Zetterberg, for example, who was a roughly average efficiency shooter (for a forward) through 2008-09, and then suddenly and immediately became a poor one thereafter.

When Toews was at his peak, he was generating a ton of high danger chances in close -- for several years in a row he was in the NHL top ten for shortest average shot distance. Basically he was exceptionally good at getting himself into point blank range before taking the shot, giving him the best chance to cash in.

I don't have numbers for the last couple of seasons on shot distance and I don't watch a ton of Hawks games, but has something changed about his deployment or usage (or just his general skill set) that keeps him further on the outside than before? That would be my wild guess theory, but I could be totally off base.

you're not getting Trouba for Toewes
- Fountain-San

"you're" . Toewes

And "you're" not getting the the last 17 seconds back from 2013, or a boatload for Tory Krug.

If the low ball Trouba, he will want out, and the large amount of bigger fish on the Jets roster MUST be paid so I don't expect there to be hometown discount from Trouba's representation.
Part of my deal was the hawks eating a 5million contract (Bryan Little) in the deal; it solves Cap for jets.


Read the post from 9:40

"you're" . Toewes

And "you're" not getting the the last 17 seconds back from 2013, or a boatload for Tory Krug.

If the low ball Trouba, he will want out, and the large amount of bigger fish on the Jets roster MUST be paid so I don't expect there to be hometown discount from Trouba's representation.
Part of my deal was the hawks eating a 5million contract ( Bryan Little ) in the deal
- wiz1901

Read the post from 9:40

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