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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: It Takes 250 Games
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Justin Lowe
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Mar 19 @ 10:41 AM ET
Justin Lowe: It Takes 250 Games There's a theory that it takes a defenceman in the NHL 250 games to really hit their stride and play a complete, consistent and responsible game.

Sure, people can point to the outliers like Aaron Ekblad and Charlie McAvoy who stepped in as teenagers and played big minutes. However, if you asked fans or media on the Panthers and/or Bruins, they would point out that those guys made (and are still making) mistakes that we yell at Jordan Oesterle for.
riozzo
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Mar 19 @ 10:51 AM ET
First

I hope the D does gel next season...
Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Mar 19 @ 11:00 AM ET
Am I right in the following thinking: EIther Sykura signs in the next several days, or he's a goner. If he is signing w Hawks at all, it will be right now so he can get on the ice and burn a year. Every day that goes by means he's more likely to go free agent in August.
oldduffman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.06.2013

Mar 19 @ 11:02 AM ET
All I can say is keep dive alive for Dahlen ,maybe something will work out in this stinking season . And oh ya get rid of Coach Qup
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I love sarcasm.
Joined: 02.23.2012

Mar 19 @ 11:08 AM ET
Am I right in the following thinking: EIther Sykura signs in the next several days, or he's a goner. If he is signing w Hawks at all, it will be right now so he can get on the ice and burn a year. Every day that goes by means he's more likely to go free agent in August.
- Cmonalready


The earliest Sikura could sign with the Hawks would be Sunday or Monday if Northeastern loses on Saturday. But he won't sign anyway, he'll do the smart thing and test free agency.

DeBrincat has had a stellar season, one of the only bright spots for the Hawks this season. He's 6th in overall rookie points and tied for second with 25 goals (behind only Boeser). This is all while playing 2-3 minutes less per game game than the other top rookies. DeBrincat's only issue has been his lack of consistency, but some of that can be chalked up to Q playing him with guys like Bouma consistently rather than the team's top end talent. If Kane is going to stick with Toews I'd like to see DeBrincat move up to Schmaltz's line.
riozzo
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Mar 19 @ 11:09 AM ET
Reading on TSN.ca that the GM's may want to look at the LTIR's, specifically Hossa, Lupul, & Soshnikov
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Mar 19 @ 11:15 AM ET
Good write up. I've heard that 250 game "rule" before and was thinking much the same when I heard it.

I am wondering if anyone has actually done in-depth analysis of this rule/guideline or if it is more that someone said 250 and it is generally agreed that dmen take longer to get experience.

Obviously there are factors such as the age/maturity of the player, talent, playing situation (i.e. 250 games of playing 20 minutes a night top pair vs 10 minutes on a bottom pair), effectiveness of coaching, and changes to the game (250 games in 2018 might not be the same as 250 games in 2008 or 1998)

I think the main take away is that the young D should get better, but I think the coaching staff has to take it case by case. I've been starting to believe that the Hawks went into this season realizing it was gonna likely be an adventure.
Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Mar 19 @ 11:19 AM ET
The earliest Sikura could sign with the Hawks would be Sunday or Monday if Northeastern loses on Saturday. But he won't sign anyway, he'll do the smart thing and test free agency.

DeBrincat has had a stellar season, one of the only bright spots for the Hawks this season. He's 6th in overall rookie points and tied for second with 25 goals (behind only Boeser). This is all while playing 2-3 minutes less per game game than the other top rookies. DeBrincat's only issue has been his lack of consistency, but some of that can be chalked up to Q playing him with guys like Bouma consistently rather than the team's top end talent. If Kane is going to stick with Toews I'd like to see DeBrincat move up to Schmaltz's line.

- DarthKane


Oh. Sorry. I thought Northeastern got knocked out last week. First time in my life I'll be rooting for a U of Michigan team of any kind. Muck Fichigan!, except Saturday, in hockey only.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I love sarcasm.
Joined: 02.23.2012

Mar 19 @ 11:19 AM ET
Reading on TSN.ca that the GM's may want to look at the LTIR's, specifically Hossa, Lupul, & Soshnikov
- riozzo



I'm sure the other GMs will look to screw over the Hawks yet again. It wasn't enough to screw teams over league approved contracts like Hossa, Keith and Luongo. Now they want to go one step further and not allow the Hawks to put Hossa on LTIR. Even though the Hawks didn't use most of the extra cap space and likely won't.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Mar 19 @ 11:21 AM ET
I get what you are saying about 250 gp but i say there should be an asterik next to some names. That is because there is no guarantee with said amount of games you would go from say a "D" to "C" or however a grade comparison could be altered.

There are strong strength and weaknesses with each of our young nhl dmen plus two at Rockford who have auditioned earlier this season in Chicago. Therefore a limit is going to be reached whereas they can only get so much better. Gus, for example, will nevet be good in physical confrontations and he does not appear to have the body to add prereiquite strength to even just sort of tie up his man in coverage.

You know not many will become as adept as L Murphy a t playing the angles. So unless they develop a really great constant offensive game, their offensive ability to advance puck is shall i say cross referenced with their defensuve attributes.

What we will wind up with is nothing but third pair and depth dmen whom could slot in for injured top pairs and maybe more solid than typical reserve players.

I await Krys professional debut because he has certain elite level offensive skills but this season he hopefully improved on keeping the puck from a forrcheck as he skated up ice. For this reason plus his defensive challenge, i put him as a future third pair. Snuggerud is another very good offensively but who is needing to learn the nuances of defensive coverage.

So make what you will of it. I do not mention Jokiharju or Mitchell until they turn pro and we see how and when they could fit in. Hillman is a tough hombre but The Athletic report mentioned questionable nhl advancement.

Forget about Norell. He has been playing forward due to overload on defensemen at Rockford. Don"t see Tuolola all that special but see how good he hets in anotjer year or two staying where he is at. On the other hand bery anxious to see how Carlsson could do.

I am not convinced Oesterle nor Dahlstrom are correct fit with the others here. If they are here, then Gus and Rutta go bye bye. I like Rutta skill and his experience/thinking but want to see how much more he can become especially if he gets just a bit physical. Forsling i am afraid needs another year AHL.
hawks29
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: northbrook, IL
Joined: 09.12.2015

Mar 19 @ 11:22 AM ET
i believe that was the conference championship game they lost last week. they are a third seed playing second seed michigan saturday night.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Mar 19 @ 11:24 AM ET
Reading on TSN.ca that the GM's may want to look at the LTIR's, specifically Hossa, Lupul, & Soshnikov
- riozzo


I don't think the Hawks have anything to worry about. Medically unfit to play is medically unfit to play. The one I find interesting is Lupul who claimed he was healthy enough to play one day, but then later "changed his story".
RaleighHawk
Joined: 03.29.2016

Mar 19 @ 11:26 AM ET
# of games has not seemed to help Murphy much--is this his ceiling?
riozzo
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Mar 19 @ 11:31 AM ET
The earliest Sikura could sign with the Hawks would be Sunday or Monday if Northeastern loses on Saturday. But he won't sign anyway, he'll do the smart thing and test free agency.

DeBrincat has had a stellar season, one of the only bright spots for the Hawks this season. He's 6th in overall rookie points and tied for second with 25 goals (behind only Boeser). This is all while playing 2-3 minutes less per game game than the other top rookies. DeBrincat's only issue has been his lack of consistency, but some of that can be chalked up to Q playing him with guys like Bouma consistently rather than the team's top end talent. If Kane is going to stick with Toews I'd like to see DeBrincat move up to Schmaltz's line.

- DarthKane


I dont think that is the smart move. someone fact check my logic.
If he signs with the hawks he can receive 2.8 X 2, and burn one of those two years in a matter of days - before his birthday. He is 22 with a June birthday. So his RFA will need to bridge him until he turns 27, 4 additional years. Let's say he is all that and gets Seguin money or about 5.5 his total compensation before he is a FA is 27.6 (2.8 X 2 + 5.5 X 4) with the Hawks. If he opts to FA this year, his total comp will be 2.8 X 2 + 5.5 X 3 or 22.1 because the clock starts a year later.

Season Hawks Pens Age
18 2.8 0 22
19 2.8 2.8 23
20 5.5 2.8 24
21 5.5 5.5 25
22 5.5 5.5 26
23 5.5 5.5 27
27.6 22.1

And that does not include local spokesperson $$.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 09.25.2014

Mar 19 @ 11:54 AM ET
"The earliest Sikura could sign with the Hawks would be Sunday or Monday if Northeastern loses on Saturday. But he won't sign anyway, he'll do the smart thing and test free agency.

DeBrincat has had a stellar season, one of the only bright spots for the Hawks this season. He's 6th in overall rookie points and tied for second with 25 goals (behind only Boeser). This is all while playing 2-3 minutes less per game game than the other top rookies. DeBrincat's only issue has been his lack of consistency, but some of that can be chalked up to Q playing him with guys like Bouma consistently rather than the team's top end talent. If Kane is going to stick with Toews I'd like to see DeBrincat move up to Schmaltz's line."
- DarthKane


Quotes acting up again. Curious as what exactly you think he'd be testing the FA market for? What could he be looking to get since the entry level contracts are what they are?
BlazinMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.08.2013

Mar 19 @ 12:00 PM ET
# of games has not seemed to help Murphy much--is this his ceiling?
- RaleighHawk


Hard to tell imo, he for the most part looks like a decent defender, but he's coming from an AZ program where he was on an awful team for most of his games.
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Mar 19 @ 12:01 PM ET
I'm sure the other GMs will look to screw over the Hawks yet again. It wasn't enough to screw teams over league approved contracts like Hossa, Keith and Luongo. Now they want to go one step further and not allow the Hawks to put Hossa on LTIR. Even though the Hawks didn't use most of the extra cap space and likely won't.
- DarthKane


okay Powerenforcer......what have you done with Darth.......how did you get his login
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Mar 19 @ 12:02 PM ET
# of games has not seemed to help Murphy much--is this his ceiling?
- RaleighHawk


You need to take into account that his first 250 games was with an absolutely horrible AZ team.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Mar 19 @ 12:04 PM ET
I'm sure the other GMs will look to screw over the Hawks yet again. It wasn't enough to screw teams over league approved contracts like Hossa, Keith and Luongo. Now they want to go one step further and not allow the Hawks to put Hossa on LTIR. Even though the Hawks didn't use most of the extra cap space and likely won't.
- DarthKane


When the new CBA set up the recapture penalties for previously signed AND APPROVED contracts, we didn't hear a peep out of McD, Rocky, Stan, no one connected to the Chicago org-a-ni-za-shun.

We had better hear tons from them if the league decides to disallow Hossa's LTIR going forward.
isu83boo
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.25.2017

Mar 19 @ 12:06 PM ET
Stan is a numbers guy and not a hockey man. He thought it was an aggregate number and not individual. There's 267 games here. He thought we were set for next year on d.

Gustav Forsling (21) – 79 reg. games / 0 playoffs (171 to go = 2.08 seasons)
Erik Gustafsson (26) – 67 reg. games / 5 playoff (178 to go = 2.17 seasons)
Jordan Oesterle (25) – 72 reg. games / 0 playoff (178 to go = 2.17 seasons)
Jan Rutta (27) – 49 reg. games / 0 playoff (201 to go = 2.45 seasons)

TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Mar 19 @ 12:09 PM ET
When the new CBA set up the recapture penalties for previously signed AND APPROVED contracts, we didn't hear a peep out of McD, Rocky, Stan, no one connected to the Chicago org-a-ni-za-shun.

We had better hear tons from them if the league decides to disallow Hossa's LTIR going forward.

- StLBravesFan


All the conspiracy theorists just need to calm down. The thought that the league somehow has it in for the Hawks is comical. They are one of the biggest markets, best draws and biggest draws on the road. It behooves the league to keep them competitive.

Something will be done to close the loopholes in the next CBA. Until that point they will beat their chests and maybe threaten, but nothing will happen.
powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Prospect, IL
Joined: 09.24.2009

Mar 19 @ 12:09 PM ET
okay Powerenforcer......what have you done with Darth.......how did you get his login
- TheTrob


It's not the GM's it Bettman who is pawning out the GM's. If you can't see his game yet, what the hell are you watching?

StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Mar 19 @ 12:10 PM ET
I don't disagree with the "250 game rule".

A problem with Chicago's defensemen that you noted is their ages - at the beginning of next season:

Gustafsson will be 26
Oesterle will be 26
Rutta will be 28
Forsling will be 22

Except for Gustav, are the other three getting to be a bit long in the tooth to dramatically grow their games?

Still young as players, but perhaps too old to be prospects and development projects.
Hawkytalk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Glen Ellyn, IL
Joined: 06.26.2012

Mar 19 @ 12:20 PM ET
All I can say is keep dive alive for Dahlen ,maybe something will work out in this stinking season . And oh ya get rid of Coach Qup
- oldduffman


Would be nice Duff but I don't think we have a prayer on that front. Even if we'd lose out I don't think we'd be in the top 5. The only chance to move up into one of those top spots is to move Keith or Kane, and there's no chance that this management would ever go for that. Nobody wants Toews or Seabrook's contracts because they're just not worth it, unless salary retention comes into play, and that'll never happen either. I hate to say it but the only way to set up the next 10 years of success is to move one or both of the above, along with the Q and Stan. God this is a depressing scenario.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Mar 19 @ 12:20 PM ET
I don't disagree with the "250 game rule".

A problem with Chicago's defensemen that you noted is their ages - at the beginning of next season:

Gustafsson will be 26
Oesterle will be 26
Rutta will be 28
Forsling will be 22

Except for Gustav, are the other three getting to be a bit long in the tooth to dramatically grow their games?

Still young as players, but perhaps too old to be prospects and development projects.

- StLBravesFan


sage...this point is well taken...because of the lack of development of drafted dman and the cap..stanbow has been forced to look to europe and other team's sow's ears to see if they actually can turn into a silk purse...so far he still has sow's ears other than forsling who are moving past their developmental years...
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