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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Musings: Quarter Pole State of Team, Prospect Updates, Alumni and More
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Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Nov 19 @ 6:34 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Musings: Quarter Pole State of Team, Prospect Updates, Alumni and More
feelingkettle
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "No sir, I don't like it" Phil, PA
Joined: 11.13.2006

Nov 19 @ 7:41 AM ET
this team don't hockey so good right now
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Nov 19 @ 7:44 AM ET
Fantastic stuff as always Bill, thanks!

Re the advance stat info you are looking for:

My guess, is that all of these things are already being tracked, at least to some degree, by the team. This is why player usage may not always correspond to what Corsi or Fenwick tells us. These other stats, regular scoring stats and, of course, the eye test is what will determine a players usage. IMO, Hagg is doing a solid job on the top pair with Provorov and should remain there when AMac returns. I like the physical element that he has added to the pairing and the way he uses his strength and reach to his advantage while also staying out of the penalty box.

FWIW, here are my positives/negatives at the quarter pole:

POSITIVES:

Obviously the top line, and especially Couturier breakthrough offensively. I have always been a Couturier supporter, so it's just that much more gratifying to see!

The goaltending, for the most part, has been solid and good enough to win on most nights. That's the most you can ask for from this tandem

Ivan Provorov. He is doing a phenomenal job, it's hard to believe he's only 20 years old

Andrew MacDonald coming out and playing the best he has since he's been in Philly. Good for him!

Nolan Patrick looking fully healthy and having perhaps his strongest game of the season last night. On a team desperately looking for secondary scoring, this is really important.

Sanheim's consistent improvement as the season has gone on and the relatively steady and solid play of Manning are both pluses.

NEGATIVES

Dear lord, this team needs to find secondary scoring and fast if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. Konecny is really pressing, and, if Weal was healthy, I'd be calling for him to sit for a game. He needs to relax and just play his game.

After getting off to quick starts, both Simmonds and Filppula have been disappointing. Filppula hasn't been terrible, but he is not contributing much right now. Simmonds had a stretch where he just looked awful over the last 3-4 weeks. He looked better against the Jets and so-so yesterday. Either way, they need more from him and they need it fast.

The second team pp, again after a decent start, has once again gone dry. Perhaps it's time to try 2 Dmen and start giving Sanheim a look? Hopefully a healthy Nolan Patrick can jump start this unit. On a side note, Dale Weise should never be on the pp. More on him later.

Ghost started the season playing very well, but his play has really tailed off the last few weeks. He needs to play better, and he needs to learn from his loss of control yesterday and keep his cool from here on in.

Radko GUdas has pretty much been the worst Dman on this team all season. When you now factor in his upcoming suspension and his general stupidity, well, lets just say I wouldn't be upset to see him go.

Lehtera and Weise. Lehtera has actually been the better of the 2. He can at least win a faceoff and make a play once in a while, but his overall lack of speed is not helping a team that can use all the speed they can get. Weise, OTOH, is basically just a body that can skate fairly well. I just don't see him bringing anything else to the table. Right now, at LHV, I don't know what else Vecchione needs to still "develop". But if it was up to me, REad would be waived, Weise would be scratched and Filppula would be moved to wing to get Vecchione into the lineup. If they need to make room for a 7th Dman, they can just waive Weise. He won't be missed.

NEITHER POSITIVE or NEGATIVE

Coaching: The coaching has been ok. Kudos for putting Coots on the top line and for moving G to wing. Could be doing a a bit better job of juggling the lines to get more secondary scoring and I just don't get what he sees in Dale Weise. Overall I'll reserve judgement on the coaching for now.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Nov 19 @ 8:47 AM ET
It really does bother me that the Flyers feel the need to validate signings and trades by overplaying guys rather than just admitting they made a mistake
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Nov 19 @ 9:04 AM ET
It really does bother me that the Flyers feel the need to validate signings and trades by overplaying guys rather than just admitting they made a mistake
- PhillySportsGuy


They scratched Umberger or put him plenty on 4th line when it was clear by middle of 1st year back that he was a shell of the player he once was. Then he was bought out with a year left on his contract.

Lecavalier was tried many different places in the lineup, then sent to scratched or 4th line realm.

MacDonald got dispatched to the Phantoms for three quarters of 2015-16 season.

Luke Schenn became a periodic healthy scratch in year two, a regular healthy scrtach after Gudas was acquired.

Weise was scratched quite a few times last year and once this season.

Lehterä has been scratched plenty.

Matt Read has become a spare part and is bound to be waived and sent back to the Phantoms again sooner or later.
nastyflyergirl
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: this space for rent, PA
Joined: 09.19.2006

Nov 19 @ 9:05 AM ET
I would like to know the Flyers record the game before the carnival. I'd bet its horrid.

PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Nov 19 @ 9:24 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Musings: Quarter Pole State of Team, Prospect Updates, Alumni and More
- bmeltzer


A lot of these things would be difficult to measure

Total board pins would probably show a negative correlation because it would likely indicate a player is allowing opposing teams to enter the zone more than others. If you were to measure it as a rate stat, you'd also want to determine how often your own team gained control after the board pin. You'd also need to measure it with goals, xGF and corsi to see if it was a predictor of anything. In the end, it may not even be that relevant.

50-50 pucks would be a really difficult measure. There really is no true 50-50 battle. One player almost always has better positioning or an advantage.

Clearing attempt success could probably be lumped in with zone exit percentage, which Charlie has been tracking for years. He breaks it down by showing which players exit the zone with and without the puck

Haven't looked at goalie stats in a while, but I imagine someone must be tracking rebound control somewhere.

Goalie screens would be nearly impossible to track unless you were to talk with the goalie himself after each game. You'd basically be guessing about which shots he saw and which he didn't.

In terms of shot blocking, it's pretty easy to find the block percentage: just total blocks/shot attempts. I don't think players have the ability to block shots so that they trickle in on the goalie rather than deflect on net. That seems more luck based.

Some of this stuff could be useful, but things like board pins and shot blocking are usually the result of a previous poor play. That's why I like the stats like xGF because it accounts for everything. If you're a really good player, it should be reflected in that statistic. However, having a good xGF doesn't necessarily make you a good player. They'll keep adding variables to the statistic to make it better. I'm not sure teams are that much more advanced than whats available to fans. They'd need yyyyyuge departments to track this kind of stuff for every team in pro, amateur and international leagues.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Nov 19 @ 9:27 AM ET
They scratched Umberger or put him plenty on 4th line when it was clear by middle of 1st year back that he was a shell of the player he once was. Then he was bought out with a year left on his contract.

Lecavalier was tried many different places in the lineup, then sent to scratched or 4th line realm.

MacDonald got dispatched to the Phantoms for three quarters of 2015-16 season.

Luke Schenn became a periodic healthy scratch in year two, a regular healthy scrtach after Gudas was acquired.

Weise was scratched quite a few times last year and once this season.

Lehterä has been scratched plenty.

Matt Read has become a spare part and is bound to be waived and sent back to the Phantoms again sooner or later.

- bmeltzer


Many of these guys should have been benched or sent to the minors for good, yet they keep getting another chance. I know sending Weise down would be a poor reflection on Hexy, so he's likely not going to do it.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 19 @ 9:34 AM ET
Many of these guys should have been benched or sent to the minors for good, yet they keep getting another chance. I know sending Weise down would be a poor reflection on Hexy, so he's likely not going to do it.
- PhillySportsGuy


No that's not true either. As Bill pointed out your earlier statement just wasn't very well thought out.

Hextall would have zero issue with sending Weise down if he thought it needed to be done. He doesn't care how that reflects on him.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 19 @ 9:44 AM ET
A lot of these things would be difficult to measure

Total board pins would probably show a negative correlation because it would likely indicate a player is allowing opposing teams to enter the zone more than others. If you were to measure it as a rate stat, you'd also want to determine how often your own team gained control after the board pin. You'd also need to measure it with goals, xGF and corsi to see if it was a predictor of anything. In the end, it may not even be that relevant.


- PhillySportsGuy


Hockey is a team game. Many times a board pin is the result of a dump in. It can also happen when the opposition entered the zone on his partners side. It can also happen after a faceoff and a defensive zone start.



50-50 pucks would be a really difficult measure. There really is no true 50-50 battle. One player almost always has better positioning or an advantage.


- PhillySportsGuy


One player having better position or advantage doesn't change that it's a 50-50 battle. Gaining better position and leverage is part of the skill of playing the position. Provorov is particularly adept at gaining leverage on an opposition player.




Goalie screens would be nearly impossible to track unless you were to talk with the goalie himself after each game. You'd basically be guessing about which shots he saw and which he didn't.


- PhillySportsGuy


Guessing is already done with many "manually" tracked stats.



In terms of shot blocking, it's pretty easy to find the block percentage: just total blocks/shot attempts. I don't think players have the ability to block shots so that they trickle in on the goalie rather than deflect on net. That seems more luck based.


- PhillySportsGuy


That's not correct. Many shot attempts could be made where a player has no chance of possibly blocking a shot. That's one of the faults of analytics that fans have access to. It uses team data as individual data. Teams can use video and software to eliminate that false data.



Some of this stuff could be useful, but things like board pins and shot blocking are usually the result of a previous poor play. That's why I like the stats like xGF because it accounts for everything. If you're a really good player, it should be reflected in that statistic. However, having a good xGF doesn't necessarily make you a good player. They'll keep adding variables to the statistic to make it better. I'm not sure teams are that much more advanced than whats available to fans. They'd need yyyyyuge departments to track this knd of stuff for every team in pro, amateur and international leagues.

- PhillySportsGuy



A previous poor play may have been made by another teammate. Doesn't change the fact that a board pin resulting in and end of a cycle play and change in possession would be a good play by a defenseman.

Proprietary stats that NHL teams have access to is light years ahead of what we as fans currently have access to. Most analytics we as fans have access to are archaic.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Nov 19 @ 10:43 AM ET
Good write up Bill.
The truth of this team is that they do have the talent as a team to make the playoffs. However they are not a good team. They have these lapses that predate the current coaching staff. I was disappointed in Ghost yesterday but it's hardly a trend of this player losing his cool. A couple of issues that are more alarming to me are:

1) Vorecek's lack of effort on the defensive side of the puck. He continues to be a liability when the puck isnt on his stick. Hell, sometimes he becomes a liability when the puck is on his stick....to me he plays outside the structure. Yes I realize you don't want to take away creativity, but there is responsibilities that a player has on the ice that he has to adhere too. So what to do ? Hakstol needs this players offence ...so can't bench the teams top point getter? To me the other leaders on this team need to hold him accountable. I cringe watching him in OT when they don't have the puck. I will say this better coaches have benched better players in the past. I don't know what answer is.

2)Weise and his careless penalties at in opportune times...some two hundred feet from his own net...he's a vet....inexcusable... how this player sees any Pp time is rediculous. I guess that's why we saw a guy that hasn't scored in half a season on that second unit the other night. He was brought in to play a hard, physical tough game. He has been a major disappointment.

If you watch great teams and other average teams with great records, it's always about dedication, sacrifice and effort. Watch a team like TBay and focus on what their back check looks like this year and then watch some of the so called leaders on the Flyers. Look at Vegas !!!!! A bunch of guys willing to pay the price.

As far as analytics, each is its own way tells a story about an aspect of the game that in the past didn't have the same measurements but was still considered important. Teams view them and interpret them differently depending on a vast number of variables. I too read the article about Hagg and While he is a struggle in the numbers he is getting done what the Flyers are asking of him. They don't view the numbers the same way that the journalist does.


SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Nov 19 @ 10:48 AM ET
Maybe we shouldn't trade productive players still within the thick of their career.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Nov 19 @ 10:49 AM ET
Voracek IMO is the most frustrating player on this team. It looks like he has predetermined before he gets the puck if he will shoot or pass regardless of what he has in front of him. Idk if he is overthinking or just not thinking at all sometimes.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 19 @ 10:54 AM ET
Good write up Bill.
The truth of this team is that they do have the talent as a team to make the playoffs. However they are not a good team. They have these lapses that predate the current coaching staff. I was disappointed in Ghost yesterday but it's hardly a trend of this player losing his cool. A couple of issues that are more alarming to me are:

1) Vorecek's lack of effort on the defensive side of the puck. He continues to be a liability when the puck isnt on his stick. Hell, sometimes he becomes a liability when the puck is on his stick....to me he plays outside the structure. Yes I realize you don't want to take away creativity, but there is responsibilities that a player has on the ice that he has to adhere too. So what to do ? Hakstol needs this players offence ...so can't bench the teams top point getter? To me the other leaders on this team need to hold him accountable. I cringe watching him in OT when they don't have the puck. I will say this better coaches have benched better players in the past. I don't know what answer is.

2)Weise and his careless penalties at in opportune times...some two hundred feet from his own net...he's a vet....inexcusable... how this player sees any Pp time is rediculous. I guess that's why we saw a guy that hasn't scored in half a season on that second unit the other night. He was brought in to play a hard, physical tough game. He has been a major disappointment.

If you watch great teams and other average teams with great records, it's always about dedication, sacrifice and effort. Watch a team like TBay and focus on what their back check looks like this year and then watch some of the so called leaders on the Flyers. Look at Vegas !!!!! A bunch of guys willing to pay the price.

As far as analytics, each is its own way tells a story about an aspect of the game that in the past didn't have the same measurements but was still considered important. Teams view them and interpret them differently depending on a vast number of variables. I too read the article about Hagg and While he is a struggle in the numbers he is getting done what the Flyers are asking of him. They don't view the numbers the same way that the journalist does.

- landros 2



77rams
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There's a kind of freedom in being completely screwed...
Joined: 09.12.2006

Nov 19 @ 10:57 AM ET
It really does bother me that the Flyers feel the need to validate signings and trades by overplaying guys rather than just admitting they made a mistake
- PhillySportsGuy


I absolutely agree.

The fact that these players were acquired in the first place to the objection by most here and elsewhere in Flyerland, and continually played when it was apparent they served no benefit to the team, was disturbing.

Bill's article was tremendous as usual and mentioned some examples which I also agree with, but I'd go just a bit farther.

VLC was just an abysmal signing from the jump. The fact that he played as long as he did and was tried everywhere substantiates the belief that they wanted to make this move work despite the obvious to all but the brass.

AMac was a serviceable d-man who could play. His crime was accepting a bloated contract offer. Can't blame him at all.

LSchenn was another bad deal, not because he couldn't play, but because it was widely felt the Flyers shortchanged themselves in the trade. The majority were proved correct.

The Weise move was another bad decision but I understood why Hextall rolled the dice here, but a four year deal??? A double digit scorer in Montreal with considerable sandpaper to his game, he seemly was a good fit for the bottom six. It has been apparent since shortly after the move that he doesn't add much of what was expected yet he continues to play not only a regular shift, but now has been given PP time. Very strange.

Lehtera was just the cost of picking up the second 1st rounder. A strict salary dump on StL's part. It still didn't mean he had to play, yet he has of late providing, as expected, very little and should not see the ice except from the Cote suite.

Read should have become a spare part long ago. Last year he waisted a spot.
monty burns
Location: wake forest, NC
Joined: 10.18.2005

Nov 19 @ 11:05 AM ET
great stuff as always bill, you do a top notch job and we should be thankful to have you as our guide and blogger through the hockey season. enjoy the holiday and your family and we all look forward to your continuing your labor of love to keep us fully informed on the comings and goings of the flyers and their prospects throughout the season.
Boyer83
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ft Worth, TX
Joined: 12.16.2011

Nov 19 @ 11:07 AM ET
Billy, stop over in Ft Worth and watch the Eagles game with me tonight!

Patrick looked pretty sharp yesterday. It was great to have him back. I see him lose board battles pretty easily. If he had the board-game of Raffl or Jake he'd be force. Hope he develops that aspect of his game soon.

Sanheim makes some great plays but he feels the pressure pretty easily. I wouldn't mind seeing Morin take his place outright against teams known for generating a ton of pressure.

What's the latest on Laberge? I haven't heard much on him lately.... really interested in him and Rubstov.
opeth_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Implication
Joined: 12.13.2011

Nov 19 @ 11:12 AM ET
Many of these guys should have been benched or sent to the minors for good, yet they keep getting another chance. I know sending Weise down would be a poor reflection on Hexy, so he's likely not going to do it.
- PhillySportsGuy



I just don't agree that Hexy is worried if sending Weise down would reflect poorly on him..

I believe the Managment staff of the Flyers thinks that right now he is a better fit for the team than someone in the AHL.
Toadthedry
Joined: 02.07.2015

Nov 19 @ 11:12 AM ET
I have to agree that Hextall gives way too many chances to guys that he has brought in. Of the guys mentioned on prior posts only Lehtera and Weise were brought in by Hextal. Lehtera has been scratched a lot. Weise on the other hand has been given way too much rope. It is likely that the fact that Hextal signed him as a free agent has something to do with that. Time to bring Vechione up. Move Filpila to the wing.

The teams should have to disclose more about injuries. It would be nice for Hextal to not be so secretive. It is disrespectful to the fans.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 19 @ 11:26 AM ET
I absolutely agree.

The fact that these players were acquired in the first place to the objection by most here and elsewhere in Flyerland, and continually played when it was apparent they served no benefit to the team, was disturbing.

Bill's article was tremendous as usual and he commented on mentioned some examples which I also agree with, but I'd go just a bit farther.

VLC was just an abysmal signing from the jump. The fact that he played as long as he did and was tried everywhere substantiates the belief that they wanted to make this move work despite the obvious to all but the brass.

AMac was a serviceable d-man who could play. His crime was accepting a bloated contract offer. Can't blame him at all.

LSchenn was another bad deal, not because he couldn't play, but because it was widely felt the Flyers shortchanged themselves in the trade. The majority were proved correct.

The Weise move was another bad decision but I understood why Hextall rolled the dice here, but a four year deal??? A double digit scorer in Montreal with considerable sandpaper to his game, he seemly was a good fit for the bottom six. It has been apparent since shortly after the move that he doesn't add much of what was expected yet he continues to play not only a regular shift, but now has been given PP time. Very strange.

Lehtera was just the cost of picking up the second 1st rounder. A strict salary dump on StL's part. It still didn't mean he had to play, yet he has of late providing, as expected, very little and should not see the ice except from the Cote suite.

Read should have become a spare part long ago. Last year he waisted a spot.

- 77rams


That's a change in parameters of what was said. Your points relate mostly to whether the moves should've been made in the first place. That's a different discussion. Some of the moves weren't even made by Hextall.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 19 @ 11:28 AM ET
I just don't agree that Hexy is worried if sending Weise down would reflect poorly on him..

I believe the Managment staff of the Flyers thinks that right now he is a better fit for the team than someone in the AHL.

- opeth_pa



Totally agree on the first point. It's absurd to think that Hextall wouldn't make a move based on how it reflects on him. The ultimate reflection on a GM is winning. He'll do what he thinks is best to win when it comes to handling veteran players.

We have to include what he thinks is best for a player in the AHL as a major part of the equation other than just what is a better fit for the Flyers. He's not going to interrupt a players development for an equal or marginal upgrade to the overall success of the team this season.
-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Nov 19 @ 11:35 AM ET

...
-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Nov 19 @ 11:36 AM ET
A lot of these things would be difficult to measure

Total board pins would probably show a negative correlation because it would likely indicate a player is allowing opposing teams to enter the zone more than others. If you were to measure it as a rate stat, you'd also want to determine how often your own team gained control after the board pin. You'd also need to measure it with goals, xGF and corsi to see if it was a predictor of anything. In the end, it may not even be that relevant.

50-50 pucks would be a really difficult measure. There really is no true 50-50 battle. One player almost always has better positioning or an advantage.

Clearing attempt success could probably be lumped in with zone exit percentage, which Charlie has been tracking for years. He breaks it down by showing which players exit the zone with and without the puck

Haven't looked at goalie stats in a while, but I imagine someone must be tracking rebound control somewhere.

Goalie screens would be nearly impossible to track unless you were to talk with the goalie himself after each game. You'd basically be guessing about which shots he saw and which he didn't.

In terms of shot blocking, it's pretty easy to find the block percentage: just total blocks/shot attempts. I don't think players have the ability to block shots so that they trickle in on the goalie rather than deflect on net. That seems more luck based.

Some of this stuff could be useful, but things like board pins and shot blocking are usually the result of a previous poor play. That's why I like the stats like xGF because it accounts for everything. If you're a really good player, it should be reflected in that statistic. However, having a good xGF doesn't necessarily make you a good player. They'll keep adding variables to the statistic to make it better. I'm not sure teams are that much more advanced than whats available to fans. They'd need yyyyyuge departments to track this kind of stuff for every team in pro, amateur and international leagues.

-psg


you're hired !
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Nov 19 @ 11:45 AM ET
They scratched Umberger or put him plenty on 4th line when it was clear by middle of 1st year back that he was a shell of the player he once was. Then he was bought out with a year left on his contract.

Lecavalier was tried many different places in the lineup, then sent to scratched or 4th line realm.

MacDonald got dispatched to the Phantoms for three quarters of 2015-16 season.

Luke Schenn became a periodic healthy scratch in year two, a regular healthy scrtach after Gudas was acquired.

Weise was scratched quite a few times last year and once this season.

Lehterä has been scratched plenty.

Matt Read has become a spare part and is bound to be waived and sent back to the Phantoms again sooner or later.

- bmeltzer



If MJL posted this he would be attacked as a company man.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Nov 19 @ 11:47 AM ET
[quote=Toadthedry]

Not sure how Hextall is giving Weise too much rope. Unless you believe that he is demanding Hak play him, which I don't believe for a second. The coach makes the lineups. With Weal injured and Read pretty much shot, he doesn't have much choice but to dress him right now. Where I disagree with Hak is in his usage. IMO, Weise should be strictly on the 4th line and getting no more than 8 minutes or so of ice time per game. He should be avoided at all costs on special teams too.
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